1600Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Danny

All areas from the Carolinas to New England need to monitor the progress of Danny as Tropical Storm Watches could be posted as early as this evening for portions of the area.

At Noon EDT (1600Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Danny is located near 27.5 N 73.0 W or 670 miles south-southeast of Virginia Beach, VA. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...some slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. Movement is to the northwest at 13 mph...this motion is expected to continue with a gradual motion to the north-northwest on Friday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb/29.71 in.

Danny/s center continues to be exposed...and even with the center being expose and virtually no storms on the west side of Danny...winds have increased to 50 kts. While shear around Danny is only between 5 and 10 kts...Danny continues to get thunderstorms around its center of circulation and will likely keep Danny from being stronger that what it could be. Forecast is for Danny to continue to slowly strengthen and still forecasting for Danny to reach minimum hurricane strength...now in 72 hours vice the 24 to 48 hours that was previously forecasted. As Danny reaches cooler waters and increasing shear...Danny will weaken beyond 72 hours and quickly become extratropical in about 4 to 5 days.

Initial motion is still an uncertain 315/11 kts. Danny have continuously reforming its center so getting an exact fix have been difficult at times. My forecast track remains unchanged from the previous forecast. A cold front that will be over the Mid-Atlantic on Friday and Saturday will keep Danny from making further northwest progress beyond 36 hours. However...due to Danny/s slow strengthening...a more northwest motion is also possible beyond 36 hours and further motion to the northwest will increase impacts for the Carolinas by the weekend. Still thinking that Danny will move northeast in about 48 hours...but could still come close enough so that tropical storm watches may be needed for the Outer Banks northward by this evening. Danny will continue to accelrate northeastward and not affect other land areas...but again...any track to the west will increase impacts for the East Coast...so all areas from the Carolinas to New England need to monitor the progress of Danny very closely.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

27/16Z 27.5 N 73.0 W 50 kts

28/04Z 28.5 N 73.8 W 50 kts

28/16Z 29.7 N 74.6 W 55 kts

29/04Z 31.7 N 74.7 W 60 kts

29/16Z 34.2 N 73.1 W 60 kts

30/16Z 40.5 N 65.5 W 65 kts

31/16Z 45.0 N 50.5 W 45 kts...extratropical

01/16Z extratropical

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist