Hurricane Bill
At 5:00 PM EDT (2100Z)...the center of Hurricane Bill is located near 14.6 N 46.5 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...this makes Bill a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Further strengthening is possible and Bill could become a major hurricane in 36 hours. Movement is toward the west at 17 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west-northwest. Estimated minimum central pressure 969 mb/28.61 in.
Bill is continuing to gather strength. While most of the T numbers suggested little additional strength in the past 6 hours or so...MIMIC-IR have suggested that winds have increased to 86 kts...or just short of 100 mph...so have decided to go with that for its initial intensity. With a low to moderate shear environment and warm water temperatures...most forecast models are forecasting that Bill will become a major hurricane within the next 36 hours...and so do my intensity forecast...where I have peaked Bill at 105 kt (120 mph) in 48 hours. Following the increase of intensity...shear is expected to pick up some and Bill will begin a slight weakening trend through Days 4 and 5...but is still expected to remain a major hurricane through the forecast period.
Initial motion 285/15 kts. Bill is being steered by a subtropical ridge that will continue to influence Bill before a weak trough will move off the east coast of the U.S. and will steer Bill more to the west-northwest in the short term. A stronger trough will develop and move off the east coast towards the end of the week and the main question is will this trough be strong enough to push Bill out to sea without affecting the east coast. Right now...it is too early to tell but for my forecast track I do for now keep Bill away from the east coast and Bermuda. As forecast models continue to iron out...more will be known over the next day or two...meanwhile...areas from the Carolinas to New England...Bermuda...and the Canadian Maritimes need to monitor Bill carefully over the next week.
Forecast Positions and Intensity:
18/09Z 15.3 N 48.8 W 90 kts
19/21Z 16.3 N 51.4 W 95 kts
20/09Z 17.2 N 53.9 W 100 kts
20/21Z 18.4 N 56.6 W 105 kts
21/21Z 21.0 N 61.5 W 105 kts
22/21Z 25.0 N 65.5 W 100 kts
23/21Z 29.5 N 67.0 W 100 kts
Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist
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