0400Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Danny

At Midnight EDT (0400Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Danny is located near 25.6 N 71.9 W or 815 miles south-southeast of Virginia Beach, VA. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...strengthening is forecast and Danny could become a hurricane by Friday. Movement is toward west-northwest at 10 mph...a general motion to the northwest is expect on Thursday...followed by a north-northwest motion on Friday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb/29.71 in.

Danny have been struggling to get itself together...however...Danny have show signs of increasing in winds and the initial intensity have increased to 45 kts. Forecast models have shown that Danny will gradually increase in intensity and will become a hurricane in 48 hours and peak in 72 hours with 75 kt winds before moving into areas of cooler waters and increased shear and become an extratropical system in 5 days.

Initial motion is 310/9 kts. Forecast models have pushed Danny a bit to the east despite its slow development and the fact that Danny is more of a subtropical system than a tropical one. Currently still not expecting for Danny not to affect land...but could still come close enough to Cape Hatteras that tropical storm force winds is possible by the weekend. Beyond 48 hours...Danny is expected to move to the northeast...followed by the east-northeast and again not affect land areas. Because of the uncertainites of the forecast track...all areas from South Carolina to New England need to monitor the progress of Danny.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

27/04Z 25.6 N 71.9 W 45 kts

27/16Z 26.7 N 72.8 W 50 kts

28/04Z 27.7 N 74.0 W 55 kts

28/16Z 29.0 N 74.8 W 60 kts

29/04Z 30.9 N 74.8 W 65 kts

30/04Z 36.0 N 71.0 W 75 kts

31/04Z 42.5 N 62.5 W 65 kts...becoming extratropical

01/04Z 46.0 N 46.5 W 45 kts...extratropical

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist