1800Z Tropical Outlook

Area of low pressure about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have continued to show signs of organization and a tropical depression could be forming. If the low can maintain its thunderstorms for several more hours...then forecasts will be initiated later this afternoon. This low will move to the west to west-northwest at 15 mph. Areas along the Lesser Antilles need to monitor the progress of this low.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0500Z Tropical Outlook

Broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing little in the way of showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are favorable for some development and a depression could still form over the next few days as this low moves to the west at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

2300Z Tropical Outlook

Area of low pressure about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have not changed much in the past 6 hours. Conditions still remain favorable for further development and could become a depression on Monday. Areas along the Lesser Antilles need to monitor the progress of this system.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected within 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1700Z Tropical Outlook

Area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have become better organized and a tropical depression could be forming. Conditions will remain favorable during the short term for further development and if continue to show signs...forecast will be initiated later today. Areas in the Lesser Antilles need to monitor the progress of this system.

Cluster of showers and thunderstorms in the southwest Caribbean is showing some signs of development and slow development is possible before crossing into Central America in a few days.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not likely within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0200Z Tropical Outlook

Tropcial wave associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continue to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development will be slow to occur as this wave moves to the west or even west-southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1500Z Tropical Outlook

Forecasts on Danny have been discontinued as Danny was absorbed into a frontal system.

Tropical wave in the Central Atlantic have diminished during the past few hours and development if any will be slow to occur during the next few days.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0300Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Danny

Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout to Duck...including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. Tropical storm watches mean that tropical storm conditions are possible in 36 hours.

At 8:00 PM EDT (0000Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Danny is located near 30.6 N 75.3 W or 320 miles south of Cape Hatteras. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...little change in strength is expected. Movement is twoards the north at 6 mph...and a motion to the northeast is expected later tonight...on this forecast track...Danny will move east of the Outer Banks. Estimate minimum central pressure is 1007 mb/29.74 in.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0300Z Tropical Outlook

Currently issuing forecasts on Tropical Storm Danny...which is located near 30.6 N 75.3 W and 40 mph winds.

Broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continue to produce showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are again becoming favorable for development and could become a tropical depression by the end of the weekend as this low moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

2100Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Danny

Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout to Duck...including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours. Areas from Virginia to New England need to also monitor the progress of Danny as additional watches and warnings may be needed.

At 5:00 PM EDT (2100Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Danny is located near 30.8 N 75.7 W or 310 miles south of Cape Hatteras. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...little change in strength is expected. Movement is toward the northwest at 9 mph with a gradual motion to the north and northeast by Saturday...on the forecast track...Danny will be near Cape Hatteras by early Saturday morning. Minimum central pressure as reported by Reconnaissance Aircraft is 1007 mb/29.74 in.

Danny is struggling to remain a tropical storm...but looking at the mircowave images during the past few hours...looks like Danny have increase some in winds...so have bumped up the winds to 40 kts. To keep this fairly short...Danny is not expected to increase much more in intensity and conditions will become unfavorable over the next 12 to 24 hours and will likely become an extratropical system within 72 hours...but could become stronger as an extratropical system.

Initial motion 315/8 kts. Satellite images show that Danny could at least within the last few frames may be moving more to the north but have kept the motion to the northwest for now. Track forecast basically moves Danny to the northeast at a faster forward speed and should not with my forecast track affect any land areas. However...Danny could get close enough to the North Carolina coast that a tropical storm warning could be needed by tonight so all areas from the Carolinas northward need to continue to monitor Danny.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

28/21Z 30.8 N 75.7 W 40 kts

29/09Z 32.6 N 75.3 W 40 kts

29/21Z 35.7 N 73.2 W 40 kts

30/09Z 39.0 N 69.5 W 40 kts

30/21Z 42.7 N 64.1 W 40 kts...becoming extratropical

31/21Z 47.0 N 45.5 W 45 kts...extratropical

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1800Z Tropical Weather Outlook

Currently issuing forecasts on Tropical Storm Danny located near 30.3 N 75.6 W with 40 mph winds.

Broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located 950 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continue to produce showers and thunderstorms. While upper level winds at this time are not favorable...conditions will become increasingly favorable for development over the next few days.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1800Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Danny

Tropical storm watch remains in effect for the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout northward to Duck...including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions is possible within 36 hours. Areas from Virginia to New England need to continue to monitor the progress of Danny as additional watches and warnings could be issued later today.

At 2:00 PM EDT...the center of Tropical Storm Danny is located near 30.3 N 75.6 W or 340 miles south of Cape Hatteras. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours. Movement during the past few hours have been stationary...but a north-northwest motion at 10 mph is expected to resume this afternoon...with a gradual turn to the north and north-northeast by Saturday. On the forecast track...Danny will pass just east of Cape Hatteras later tonight into early Saturday morning. Minimum central pressure reported by Reconssiance Aircraft is 1007 mb/29.74 in.

A complete update including discussion and forecast positions at 5 PM EDT.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

2100Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Danny

At 5:00 PM EDT...a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout to Duck...including the Ablemarle and Pamlico Sounds. Tropical Storm watch mean that tropical storm force winds are possible within 36 hours. Areas from Virginia to New England also need to monitor the progress of Danny as additional watches may be required over the next few days.

At 5:00 PM EDT (2100Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Danny is located near 27.8 N 73.6 W or 580 miles south-southeast of Kill Devil Hills NC. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 50 mph...while Danny have weakened somewhat...slight strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Movement during the past few hours have been nearly stationary...but a westward motion at 8 mph will resume later today...with a gradual motion to the northwest on Friday. On the forecast track...Danny will come near the North Carolina coast on Saturday. Minimum central pressure reported by Reconnaissance Plane is 1008 mb/29.77 in.

Looking at satellite pictures over the past few hours show that the center of Danny remains exposed and was at times difficult to locate. Dvorak and ADT numbers place Danny at minimum tropical storm strength...but reports from Microwave Satellite and Recon Flight places winds at 45 kts...so have went with this for initial intensity. While water temps are well in the 80s and shear have been around 10 to 20 kts...Danny have been struggling to get organized...so for my intensity forecast have lowered peak winds to just below hurricane force as now I do not believe at this time that Danny will not make it to hurricane status. Have gone with gradual strengthening through 48 hours...then a quick transition to extratropical status in 4 days.

Motion during the past few hours have been nearly stationary. With this stationary motion...the center have again going through reforming stages...this time further to the west which have changed the forecast track from the last update. I have adjusted the forecast track to the west and because of the adjustment...tropical storm watches have been posted for parts of the North Carolina coast. With Danny developing as slow he will continue on a westward track longer than anticipated...and impacts for the North Carolina coast have increased...and even now...a little more skeptical if the front that will move to the Mid-Atlantic area will affect the overall motion of Danny. If westward adjustments continue...then watches in time will be adjusted northward over the next several days. Overall forecast track still pushes Danny northeast and closer to New England and Nova Scotia in about 3 to 4 days. Therefore...all areas from Virginia northward need to monitor Danny closely over the next few days.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

27/21Z 27.8 N 73.6 W 45 kts

28/09Z 28.3 N 74.7 W 45 kts

28/21Z 29.9 N 75.8 W 50 kts

29/09Z 32.3 N 75.7 W 55 kts

29/21Z 35.3 N 73.6 W 60 kts

30/21Z 43.0 N 66.0 W 60 kts

31/21Z 47.0 N 49.0 W 40 kts...extratropical

01/21Z extratropical

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1800Z Tropical Outlook

Currently issuing forecasts on Tropical Danny located near 27.5 N 73.0 W and 60 mph winds.

Tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of Cape Verde Islands continue to get better organized. Conditions remain favorable for further development over the next few days as this wave moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1600Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Danny

All areas from the Carolinas to New England need to monitor the progress of Danny as Tropical Storm Watches could be posted as early as this evening for portions of the area.

At Noon EDT (1600Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Danny is located near 27.5 N 73.0 W or 670 miles south-southeast of Virginia Beach, VA. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...some slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. Movement is to the northwest at 13 mph...this motion is expected to continue with a gradual motion to the north-northwest on Friday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb/29.71 in.

Danny/s center continues to be exposed...and even with the center being expose and virtually no storms on the west side of Danny...winds have increased to 50 kts. While shear around Danny is only between 5 and 10 kts...Danny continues to get thunderstorms around its center of circulation and will likely keep Danny from being stronger that what it could be. Forecast is for Danny to continue to slowly strengthen and still forecasting for Danny to reach minimum hurricane strength...now in 72 hours vice the 24 to 48 hours that was previously forecasted. As Danny reaches cooler waters and increasing shear...Danny will weaken beyond 72 hours and quickly become extratropical in about 4 to 5 days.

Initial motion is still an uncertain 315/11 kts. Danny have continuously reforming its center so getting an exact fix have been difficult at times. My forecast track remains unchanged from the previous forecast. A cold front that will be over the Mid-Atlantic on Friday and Saturday will keep Danny from making further northwest progress beyond 36 hours. However...due to Danny/s slow strengthening...a more northwest motion is also possible beyond 36 hours and further motion to the northwest will increase impacts for the Carolinas by the weekend. Still thinking that Danny will move northeast in about 48 hours...but could still come close enough so that tropical storm watches may be needed for the Outer Banks northward by this evening. Danny will continue to accelrate northeastward and not affect other land areas...but again...any track to the west will increase impacts for the East Coast...so all areas from the Carolinas to New England need to monitor the progress of Danny very closely.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

27/16Z 27.5 N 73.0 W 50 kts

28/04Z 28.5 N 73.8 W 50 kts

28/16Z 29.7 N 74.6 W 55 kts

29/04Z 31.7 N 74.7 W 60 kts

29/16Z 34.2 N 73.1 W 60 kts

30/16Z 40.5 N 65.5 W 65 kts

31/16Z 45.0 N 50.5 W 45 kts...extratropical

01/16Z extratropical

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0400Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Danny

At Midnight EDT (0400Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Danny is located near 25.6 N 71.9 W or 815 miles south-southeast of Virginia Beach, VA. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...strengthening is forecast and Danny could become a hurricane by Friday. Movement is toward west-northwest at 10 mph...a general motion to the northwest is expect on Thursday...followed by a north-northwest motion on Friday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb/29.71 in.

Danny have been struggling to get itself together...however...Danny have show signs of increasing in winds and the initial intensity have increased to 45 kts. Forecast models have shown that Danny will gradually increase in intensity and will become a hurricane in 48 hours and peak in 72 hours with 75 kt winds before moving into areas of cooler waters and increased shear and become an extratropical system in 5 days.

Initial motion is 310/9 kts. Forecast models have pushed Danny a bit to the east despite its slow development and the fact that Danny is more of a subtropical system than a tropical one. Currently still not expecting for Danny not to affect land...but could still come close enough to Cape Hatteras that tropical storm force winds is possible by the weekend. Beyond 48 hours...Danny is expected to move to the northeast...followed by the east-northeast and again not affect land areas. Because of the uncertainites of the forecast track...all areas from South Carolina to New England need to monitor the progress of Danny.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

27/04Z 25.6 N 71.9 W 45 kts

27/16Z 26.7 N 72.8 W 50 kts

28/04Z 27.7 N 74.0 W 55 kts

28/16Z 29.0 N 74.8 W 60 kts

29/04Z 30.9 N 74.8 W 65 kts

30/04Z 36.0 N 71.0 W 75 kts

31/04Z 42.5 N 62.5 W 65 kts...becoming extratropical

01/04Z 46.0 N 46.5 W 45 kts...extratropical

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0100Z Tropical Update

Currently issuing updates on Tropical Storm Danny...located near 25.7 N 71.2 W and 45 mph winds. Next update on this system will be at 11 PM EDT.

Tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands is currently producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While upper level winds are condusive for further development...additional development will be slow to occur as the wave moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

2100Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Danny

At 5:00 PM EDT (2100Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Danny is located near 25.3 N 71.0 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...slow strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours. Movement is toward the west-northwest at 14 mph...gradual motion to the northwest will be expected on Thursday and a north-northwest motion on Friday. Minimum central pressure reported by Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft is 1009 mb/29.80 in.

Looking at Danny during the past 5 to 6 hours have revealed little change in structure and intensity as it remains at 40 kts. Shear around Danny is between 10 and 20 kts and is expected to remain near that category in the near term future...however with water temps well into the 80s...I do expect Danny to slowly strengthen and still expect that Danny could reach hurricane strength briefly in about 72 hours. Afterwards...Danny will begin to weaken as he heads towards cooler waters and will become extratropical by the end of the forecast period.

Motion a questionable 300/12 kts. Danny may be trying to reform its center near the heaviest thunderstorms. Forecast track right now is in the air as forecast models are all over the place on where Danny could go and what impacts if any he will have on the East Coast. My current forecast track takes Danny on a slow northwest track for the first 48 hours...then will move to the north-northwest in response to the sub-tropical ridge in the central Atlantic. There will be a front that will head towards the East Coast...that could ultimately decide on when Danny makes that northeast motion...right now...my forecast track kicks Danny to the northeast before getting close to the East Coast...and moving out to sea not affecting any land areas. But any deviation to the left will mean greater impacts for the Carolinas to New England so all areas need to monitor this system very closely the rest of the week and into the weekend and regardless of the final track of Danny...expect increasing waves for the East Coast as soon as tonight or Thursday.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

26/21Z 25.3 N 71.0 W 40 kts

27/09Z 25.8 N 72.5 W 40 kts

27/21Z 26.6 N 74.1 W 45 kts

28/09Z 27.6 N 75.1 W 50 kts

28/21Z 29.0 N 75.6 W 55 kts

29/21Z 33.0 N 73.0 W 65 kts

30/21Z 39.0 N 67.0 W 65 kts

31/21Z 44.0 N 53.5 W 45 kts...extratropical

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1630Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Danny

At 12:30 PM EDT (1630Z)...the center of newly developed Tropical Storm Danny is located near 24.9 N 70.3 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph and strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. Movement is toward the west-northwest at 18 mph and this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the northwest in about 24 to 36 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb/29.80 in.

During the past few hours...Danny have gradually become better organized and a closed circulation have formed and have now been declared a tropical storm. Danny will continue to move into a better environment for strengthening and Danny will have a chance to become a hurricane in about 72 hours. Danny is moving west-northwest and will continue to do so for about 24 hours and then will move to the northwest and could come very close to the East Coast by the weekend. Areas from the Bahamas to the Mid-Atlantic need to monitor the progress of Danny. Will have a complete update including forecast track at 5:00 PM EDT.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0400Z Tropical Update

Reports for the Air Force Recon Aircraft have determined that there is a trough of low pressure...however there is no closed circulation. Latest QuikSCAT pass and tropical guidance have shown winds of over tropical storm force. This system could become a tropical storm at anytime within the next 6 to 12 hours. Areas from the Bahamas to the East Coast need to monitor the progress of this system.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0400Z Tropical Update

Tropical wave associated with an upper level about a couple hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands are producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will gradually become favorable for further development as this systems moves to the west-northwest at 20 to 25 mph.

Area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Development of this low is not expected due to the proximity of land. Regardless of development...heavy rain and gusty winds will be expected over areas of Central America over the next day or two.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

2200Z Tropical Update

A tropical wave associated with a upper-level low pressure located about 300 miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing some showers and thunderstorms. Upper level winds are expected to gradually become favorable for development over the next few days as this wave moves to the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph.

Area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea have developed rapidly. Due to proximity of land...development will be slow to occur...but have enough time to briefly become a tropical depression over the next day or two as this low moves west at 20 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1600Z Tropical Update

The tropics are quieting down somewhat now that Bill is an extratropical system.

A tropical wave associated with an upper level low about 600 miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing some showers and thunderstorms. Slow development of this system is possible as this wave moves to the west at 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected over the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0300Z Tropical Update

Hurricane Bill

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible...generally in 36 hours and a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm warning is expected...generally in 12 to 24 hours.

At 11:00 PM EDT (0300Z)...the eye of Hurricane Bill is located near 24.7 N 63.8 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph winds...this makes Bill and dangerous category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Some strengthening is possible in the short term...but weakening will begin by Sunday morning. Movement is to the northwest at 18 mph...this motion is expected to continue with a gradual motion to the north-northwest on Friday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb/27.88 in.

Bill continues to show signs of organization during the past 6 hours and have again increased winds to 115 kts...and nearing category 4 strength. While my intensity forecast have not shown much change in strength...any increase in intensity will make Bill a category 4 again. But overall...with increasing southwest shear and cooler water temperatures...Bill will begin to weaken after 48 hours and will begin to become extratropical in about 4 days and become fully extratropical by day 5.

Initial motion 310/16 kts. Bill is gradually getting under the influence of both a subtropical ridge and the first of two troughs moving off the East Coast. The first one will cause Bill to move to the north-northwest and then to the north. A second and stronger trough will kick Bill to the northeast and east-northeast by days 4 and 5. I have moved my forecast track back to the east closer to Bermuda and should remain about 200 miles off the island...but close enough for tropical storm force winds by late Friday and into Saturday. Areas along the East Coast can expect higher than normal seas and some coastal flooding...so stay out of the water through the weekend and Bermuda continue to monitor the progress of Bill.

Forecast Positions and Intensity:

21/03Z 24.7 N 63.8 W 115 kts

21/15Z 26.5 N 66.3 W 115 kts

22/03Z 28.9 N 68.4 W 115 kts

22/15Z 31.5 N 69.6 W 115 kts

23/03Z 34.8 N 69.2 W 110 kts

24/03Z 41.5 N 63.5 W 90 kts

25/03Z 44.0 N 48.5 W 55 kts...becoming extratropical

26/03Z 45.0 N 30.0 W 35 kts...extratropical

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

2200Z Tropical Update

Hurricane Bill

At 6:00 PM EDT...the Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the island of Bermuda. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions is expected...generally in 12 to 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the island of Bermuda. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

At 6:00 PM EDT (2200Z)...the eye of Hurricane Bill is located near 23.8 N 62.8 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph...which makes Bill a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale...some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. Movement is to the northwest at 20 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual motion to the north-northwest on Friday. Minimum central pressure from Recon Airplane is 948 mb/27.99 in.

Eyewall replacement cycle has ended and Bill have responded by strengthening from the previous update. The eye is well-defined with very good outflow. T-numbers have also increased...therefore winds have increased to 110 kts. While I continue to call for more strengthening for Bill...I have lowered how much Bill will strengthen and do not think now that Bill will regain category 4 strength. After about 36 hours...Bill will begin to encounter some cooler water temperatures and increasing southwest shear... and will call for Bill to gradually weaken...Bill will weaken much more rapidly after 72 hours and could begin to lose tropical characteristics during this time and will become extratropical between days 4 and 5.

Initial motion 305/17 kts. I am stil expecting Bill to completely miss all land areas...including the Canadian Maritimes at this time...but I have nudge my forecast track slightly to the left. This trough will expect to pull Bill out to sea in about 3 days and kick it rapidly to the northeast. Because Bill is a large hurricane and I have nudged my track to the left...Bermuda is still not out of the woods yet and tropical storm warnings have been posted. The East Coast of the U.S. will also be affected by Bill in the form of high waves and dangerous seas...and should stay out of the water. Bermuda should continue to monitor Bill due to any track changes to the right will increase danger to Bermuda and be prepared.

Forecast Positions and Intensity:

20/22Z 23.8 N 62.8 W 110 kts

21/10Z 25.1 N 65.3 W 110 kts

21/22Z 27.3 N 67.8 W 115 kts

22/10Z 29.5 N 69.6 W 115 kts

22/22Z 32.1 N 70.4 W 110 kts

23/22Z 39.0 N 67.5 W 100 kts

24/22Z 43.5 N 55.0 W 70 kts...becoming extratropical

25/22Z 45.5N 36.5 W 35 kts...extratropical

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1800Z Intermediate Tropical Update

Hurricane Bill

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Bermuda. Hurricane watch mean that hurricane conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours. At 2:00 PM EDT (1800Z)...the eye of Hurricane Bill is located near 23.0 N 62.2 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph...this makes Bill a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Little change in strength is expected for the intermediate short term...but some additional strengthening is possible later this evening. Movement is to the northwest at 18 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual motion to the north-northwest on Friday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb/28.11 in.

A complete update including discussion and forecast track will be updated by later this afternoon.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1500Z Tropical Update

Hurricane Bill

At 11:00 AM EDT...the Bermuda Weather Service have issued a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions is possible generally within 36 hours.

At 11:00 AM EDT (1500Z)...the eye of Hurricane Bill is located near 22.4 N 61.2 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph...this makes Bill a strong category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale...little change in strength is expected today. Movement is toward the northwest at 18 mph and this motion is expected to continue. Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb/28.11 in.

Bill is actually moving through some increasing shear but Bill is such a large hurricane that it is having little effects. While some of the T numbers have decreased slightly...MIMIC-IR still suggest winds of 113 kts...so I have decided to go with 115 kts for this update. Bill will also be going through an eyewall replacement cycle...so for the short term have kept Bill from strengthening much...but in about 24 to 36 hours...Bill will have one more opportunity to return to category 4 strength as Bill will move into the Gulf Stream. Following...Bill will begin to move into an even higher shear environment and much cooler water temps and Bill will begin to weaken rapidly...and will begin to show extratropical characteristics in 4 days and become extratropical in 5 days.

Initial motion 305/16 kts. Bill will continue on this northwest track for 24 to 36 hours...then will begin a track to the north as a longwave trough makes its way offshore. This trough will then push Bill to the northeast then east-northeast through the forecast period. I have been pushing Bill further and further west...so areas along the New England coast need to monitor Bill closely as he could get close enough that the area could experience some tropical storm force winds. Bermuda should also monitor Bill as any track to the right will increase your danger...and all areas from Florida to Maine should remain out of the water as dangerous waves will crash onshore during the next several days and again...the closer to the west Bill moves...the higher the waves/swells will become.

Forecast Positions and Intensity:

20/15Z 22.4 N 61.2 W 115 kts

21/04Z 24.1 N 63.8 W 115 kts

21/16Z 26.2 N 66.5 W 115 kts

22/04Z 28.4 N 68.6 W 120 kts

22/16Z 30.9 N 70.1 W 110 kts

23/16Z 38.0 N 68.5 W 100 kts

24/16Z 44.0 N 58.5 W 75 kts...becoming extratropical

25/16Z 45.0 N 40.0 W 35 kts...extratropical

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1600Z Tropical Update

Hurricane Bill

At Noon EDT (1600Z)...the eye of Hurricane Bill is located near 18.7 N 56.0 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...this makes Bill an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Additional strengthening is possible and there is an outside chance that Bill could come close to category 5 strength. Movement is toward the west-northwest at 16 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual motion to the northwest later today or on Thursday. Minimum central pressure as report by P-3 NOAA Hurricane Hunters 950 mb/28.05 in.

This is a fairly quick update on the location and strength of Bill...which continues to strengthen and is now a Category 4 hurricane. My intensity forecast do continue to increase Bill for the next 36 hours...peaking at 125 kt or 145 mph...11 mph off of a category 5 hurricane. Bill have about again 36 hours of strengthening before encountering southwest shear and cooler water temperatures in which time Bill will begin to slowly weaken...but I am fully expecting for Bill to remain a major hurricand for the next 4 days. Areas along the Northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda need to monitor the progress of this storm.

I will have a complete update including storm track and a full discussion by 8 PM EDT.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

19/16Z 18.7 N 56.0 W 120 kts

20/04Z 19.9 N 58.4 W 120 kts

20/16Z 21.4 N 61.1 W 120 kts

21/04Z 23.0 N 63.6 W 125 kts

21/16Z 24.8 N 65.9 W 120 kts

22/16Z 30.0 N 68.5 W 115 kts

23/16Z 36.5 N 65.5 W 100 kts

24/16Z 42.5 N 55.0 W 75 kts

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0300Z Tropical Update

Hurricane Bill

At 11:00 PM EDT (0300Z)...the eye of Hurricane Bill is located near 17.1 N 53.1 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph...which makes Bill a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours and Bill could become a category 4 hurricane on Wednesday. Movement is to the west-northwest at 15 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the northwest on Wednesday. Minimum central pressure as reported by the NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 952 mb/28.11 in.

Bill is currently going through a mini rapid intensification cycle. Earlier this evening...NOAA Hurricane Hunters found 110 kt winds...since then have level off a bit...though T numbers have been between 6.0 and even 7.0 on the ADT...not going to go that strong...but will go with 110 kts. Bill have about 24 to 30 hours left of strengthening to go before Bill begins to encounter some increase in southwest shear...and with Bill being such a large hurricane...weakening will be very slow to occur at first...but as Bill moves into cooler waters...Bill will begin to weaken a little more rapidly...but Bill is expected to remain a major hurricane for about 4 days.

Initial motion 295/13 kts. Bill continues to make more and more of a turn to the northwest...and have not made much changes to the forecast track as I am still expecting for Bill to be influenced by two longwave troughs over the next several days. At this point...not expecting Bill to affect land so much but Bermuda could experience some effects from Bill by the weekend. The Leeward Islands westward to Puerto Rico will experience higher than normal surf within the next few days and the East Coast by the weekend. Bermuda need to continue to monitor the progress of Bill.

Forecast Positions and Intensity:

19/03Z 17.1 N 53.1 W 110 kts

19/15Z 18.4 N 55.5 W 115 kts

20/03Z 20.1 N 58.3 W 120 kts

20/15Z 22.8 N 61.2 W 115 kts

21/03Z 23.5 N 64.0 W 115 kts

22/03Z 28.0 N 68.0 W 115 kts

23/03Z 33.5 N 68.0 W 100 kts

24/03Z 39.5 N 61.0 W 85 kts

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

Special 0100Z Tropical Update

Hurricane Bill

At 9:00 PM EDT (0100Z)...the eye of Hurricane Bill is located near 17.0 N 52.7 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph...this makes Bill a dangerous Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Further strengthening is expected and Bill could become a category 4 hurricane later this evening or Wednesday. Movement is to the west-northwest at 15 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a turn to the northwest in 24 hours. Minimum central pressure reported from NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 958 mb/28.29 in.

This special update is to update Bill as a major hurricane as found by the NOAA Hurricane Hunters. They recent found winds near the center of circulation of 110 kts or 125 mph. While have not updated the forecast track...have updated the intensity forecast upwards as further strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours and could become a extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane as Bill goes through a rapid intensification cycle. A complete update at 11:00 PM EDT.

Forecast Positions and Intensity:

19/01Z 17.0 N 52.7 W 110 kts

19/13Z 17.2 N 54.1 W 115 kts

20/01Z 18.6 N 56.1 W 120 kts

20/13Z 20.1 N 59.5 W 115 kts

21/01Z 21.9 N 62.3 W 115 kts

22/01Z 26.0 N 67.0 W 115 kts

23/01Z 31.5 N 68.0 W 100 kts

24/01Z 37.5 N 63.5 W 85 kts

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

2100Z Tropical Update

Hurricane Bill

At 5:00 PM EDT (2100Z)...the eye of Hurricane Bill is located near 16.4 N 51.8 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph...this makes Bill a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Further strengthening is expected and Bill could become a major hurricane later today or Wednesday. Movement is towards the west-northwest at 16 mph...this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the northwest on Wednesday or Thursday. Minimum central pressure as reported by Air Force Recon flight is 962 mb/28.41 in.

Bill continues to deepen and visible satellite show a well-define eye and outflow on all quads. While T numbers are at 5.0...during the past 2 hours...Bill have increased to 95 kts...and will be going with this for initial intensity. Bill is on the grasp of becoming a major hurricane and is expected to do so later today or Wednesday. It is also possible that Bill could become stronger than anticipated as a rapid intensification process may be on going. While I still have Bill peaking at 105 kts...there is still a good chance that Bill could be much stronger. As we head to days 4 and 5...increased shear and slightly cooler water temperatures...Bill will begin to slowly weaken but will still be a dangerous hurricane.

Initial motion 290/14 kts. Bill is nudging more and more to the northwest in response of a trough moving off the East Coast....that will steer Bill more to the northwest. Then a second longwave will push off the East Coast by the weekend and this trough will steer Bill more to the north and northeast...effectively missing the East Coast...but could pose a danger to Bermuda in about 4 days as a major hurricane. While the threat is decreasing for the East Coast...expect waves to increase by the weekend and Bermuda continue to monitor the progress of Bill.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

18/21Z 16.4 N 51.8 W 95 kts

19/09Z 17.2 N 54.1 W 100 kts

19/21Z 18.6 N 56.7 W 105 kts

20/09Z 20.1 N 59.5 W 105 kts

20/21Z 21.9 N 62.3 W 105 kts

21/21Z 26.0 N 67.0 W 105 kts

22/21Z 31.5 N 68.0 W 105 kts

23/21Z 37.5 N 63.5 W 90 kts

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1600Z Tropical Update

Hurricane Bill

At Noon EDT (1600Z)...the eye of Hurricane Bill is located near 15.9 N 51.1 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...Bill is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Further strengthening is expected and Bill could become a major hurricane later today or Wednesday. Movement is toward the west-northwest at 16 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the northwest in about 24 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure 963 mb/28.44 in.

Continuing to watch Bill become better organized and have developed an eye during the overnight hours and have increased winds to 90 kts...though the ADT models show Bill as strong as 117 kts. Bill will continue to strengthen and will likely be a major hurricane later today or on Wednesday as conditions will remain favorable. An Air Force Recon Plane will be investagating Bill later today. Bill will begin to encounter unfavorable conditions in about 3 to 4 days and a slight weakening trend will begin...but is still expected to remain a major hurricane through the forecast period.

Initial motion 285/14kts. Bill will continue on a west-northwest track for about another 24 hours when a longwave will influence Bill/s motion more towards the northwest and will miss the Lesser Antilles...Puerto Rico...and the Bahamas. A second and stronger longwave will move off the East Coast on Friday or Saturday and this should move Bill to the north and northeast...not directly affecting the East Coast...but could bring some higher than normal surf. Forecast track to bring Bill close to Bermuda by the weekend as a major hurricane or a strong category 2 storm. While the East Coast looks to be in the clear now...any further movements to the left of forecast track will increase chances for the East Coast...so still continue to monitor Bill for another 24 to 48 hours before the all clear is given. Bermuda need to monitor this system for possible affects over the weekend.

Forecast Positions and Intensity:

19/04Z 16.5 N 52.7 W 95 kts

19/16Z 17.8 N 55.1 W 100 kts

20/04Z 19.3 N 57.6 W 105 kts

20/16Z 20.9 N 60.3 W 105 kts

21/16Z 24.5 N 65.0 W 105 kts

22/16Z 29.5 N 67.0 W 100 kts

23/16Z 34.5 N 63.0 W 90 kts

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0300Z Tropical Update

Hurricane Bill

At 11:00 PM EDT (0300Z)...the center of Hurricane Bill is located near 15.0 N 47.8 W. Maximum sustained winds are at 100 mph...further strengthening is expected and Bill is expected to become a major hurricane in 36 hours. Movement is toward the west-northwest at 17 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the northwest in about 36 to 48 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure 967 mb/28.56 in.

Bill continues to become better organized and evidence of an eye developing on the latest satellite pictures...have kept the initial intensity at 85 kts or 100 mph. I have not changed the intensity forecast from the previous update and still fully expect for Bill to become a major hurricane in about 36 hours and maintain major hurricane status for the remainder of the forecast period.

Initial motion 285/15 kts. Bill will continue on this west-northwest motion for the next 24 to 36 hours when the first of two longwaves will move off the East Coast and will gradually turn Bill to the northwest. A second and stronger trough will steer Bill to the north-northwest...but as of now...no immediate turn to the north or north-northeast yet. Right now...I am thinking that areas from Florida to about Charleston SC is likely safe from Bill right now...but areas north of Charleston SC need to continue to monitor the progress of Bill.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

18/15Z 15.7 N 50.4 W 90 kts

19/03Z 16.7 N 52.8 W 95 kts

19/15Z 17.9 N 55.2 W 100 kts

20/03Z 19.4 N 57.3 W 105 kts

21/03Z 23.0 N 62.0 W 105 kts

22/03Z 28.0 N 65.0 W 100 kts

23/03Z 36.0 N 68.5 W 100 kts

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

2100Z Tropical Update

A quick note on Tropical Depression Ana...it is dissipating and there will be no further updates on this system.

Hurricane Bill

At 5:00 PM EDT (2100Z)...the center of Hurricane Bill is located near 14.6 N 46.5 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...this makes Bill a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Further strengthening is possible and Bill could become a major hurricane in 36 hours. Movement is toward the west at 17 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west-northwest. Estimated minimum central pressure 969 mb/28.61 in.

Bill is continuing to gather strength. While most of the T numbers suggested little additional strength in the past 6 hours or so...MIMIC-IR have suggested that winds have increased to 86 kts...or just short of 100 mph...so have decided to go with that for its initial intensity. With a low to moderate shear environment and warm water temperatures...most forecast models are forecasting that Bill will become a major hurricane within the next 36 hours...and so do my intensity forecast...where I have peaked Bill at 105 kt (120 mph) in 48 hours. Following the increase of intensity...shear is expected to pick up some and Bill will begin a slight weakening trend through Days 4 and 5...but is still expected to remain a major hurricane through the forecast period.

Initial motion 285/15 kts. Bill is being steered by a subtropical ridge that will continue to influence Bill before a weak trough will move off the east coast of the U.S. and will steer Bill more to the west-northwest in the short term. A stronger trough will develop and move off the east coast towards the end of the week and the main question is will this trough be strong enough to push Bill out to sea without affecting the east coast. Right now...it is too early to tell but for my forecast track I do for now keep Bill away from the east coast and Bermuda. As forecast models continue to iron out...more will be known over the next day or two...meanwhile...areas from the Carolinas to New England...Bermuda...and the Canadian Maritimes need to monitor Bill carefully over the next week.

Forecast Positions and Intensity:

18/09Z 15.3 N 48.8 W 90 kts

19/21Z 16.3 N 51.4 W 95 kts

20/09Z 17.2 N 53.9 W 100 kts

20/21Z 18.4 N 56.6 W 105 kts

21/21Z 21.0 N 61.5 W 105 kts

22/21Z 25.0 N 65.5 W 100 kts

23/21Z 29.5 N 67.0 W 100 kts

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0900Z Tropical Update

Tropical Depression Four

At 5:00 AM EDT...Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida. Tropical storm warnings mean that tropical storm conditions are expected in 12 to 24 hours.

At 5:00 AM EDT (0900Z)...the center of newly developed Tropical Depression Four is located near 27.0 N 83.5 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...and strengthening is expected and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm before landfall. Movement is to the northwest at 15 mph and this motion is expected to continue. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb/29.85 in.

This depression have developed rapidly over the past few hours as it is sitting under a very light shear environment and water temperatures between 28 and 30C. I am fully expecting this depression to become a tropical storm later today and continue to strengthen before making landfall by this time Monday morning to around a 45 kt tropical storm. Following landfall...expect this system to weaken as it heads to the northeast and whatever is left of this system could move off the New Jersey coast in about 5 days.

Initial motion 330/13 kts. Expect this motion to continue until landfall in about 24 hours then in response to a high pressure off the East Coast...a turn to the northeast and could bring heavy rains across the southeast...and Mid-Atlantic. Though this will be a weak to moderate tropical storm...expect heavy rain across the Florida Panhandle to the Mississippi/Alabama border.

Forecast Positions and Intensity:

16/21Z 28.6 N 84.9 W 35 kts

17/09Z 30.0 N 86.3 W 40 kts

17/21Z 31.2 N 87.4 W 45 kts...inland

18/09Z 32.4 N 88.0 W 30 kts...inland

19/09Z 34.5 N 87.5 W 25 kts...inland

20/09Z 37.0 N 82.0 W 25 kts...inland

21/09Z 39.5 N 73.5 W 30 kts...offshore

Tropical Storm Bill

At 5:00 AM EDT (0900Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Bill is located near 11.3 N 40.3 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...additional strengthening is expected and Bill could become a hurricane in about 36 hours. Movement is to the west at 17 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual motion to the west-northwest in 24 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb/29.59 in.

Bill have increased in strength slightly with T numbers around 2.5 to 3.0 and thus have increased the intensity to 40 kts. Light to moderate shear environment and warmer water temperatures will be factors in Bill increasing in strength over the next five days. New forecast calls for Bill to become a hurricane in about 36 horus and very near major hurricane strength in 4 days. Forecast models do indicate that wind shear is expected to increase further by days 4 and 5...so have level intensity off at 95 kts which is well below several of the models that are still predicting that Bill could reach category 3 or 4 status in the same time frame. Right now...do not see this due to the expected increasing shear.

Initial motion 270/15 kts. Again...do not see much difference in the forecast track from previous forecast packages...so made little change to the forecast track and expect for Bill to move to the west-northwest and stay north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico...but could affect the Bahamas in about 7 days.

Forecast Positions and Intensity:

16/21Z 11.8 N 40.3 W 45 kts

17/09Z 12.5 N 43.2 W 55 kts

17/21Z 13.3 N 46.1 W 65 kts

18/09Z 14.1 N 48.8 W 75 kts

19/09Z 16.0 N 54.5 W 90 kts

20/09Z 20.0 N 59.5 W 95 kts

21/09Z 23.0 N 64.5 W 95 kts

Tropical Storm Ana

At 5:00 AM EDT...Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Puerto Rico...the U.S. and British Virgin Islands...and the Northern Leeward Islands. Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in 24 to 36 hours. Warnings could be issued for a portion of the watch area later today.

At 5:00 AM EDT (0900Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Ana is located near 14.5 N 52.7 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...little change in strength is expected in the next 24 to 36 hours. Movement is to the west at 20 mph and this motion is expected to continue. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb/29.68 in.

Ana continues to struggle with the shear and dry air...and her fast motion is not helping to keep her together. Initial intensity remains at 35 kts. I am expecting for the shear and dry air to continue to impact Ana and she will struggle to maintain her strength for the next 36 hours. Beyond 36 hours...the shear is expected to relax some and she will begin to strengthen as she moves through the Northern Leeward Islands. Ana will also move through Hispaniola and Cuba towards the end of the forecast period and during this time...Ana will weaken back to a weak tropical storm...if not a depression...have kept the forecast from becoming a depression for now and also knocked down the overall intensity forecast for Ana and for her not to reach hurricane strength.

Initial motion 270/17 kts. This rapid motion is expected to continue for the next 12 to 24 hours. Ana will gradually move to the west-northwest and move through the Northern Leeward Islands...Puerto Rico...Hispaniola...and Cuba through the forecast period. If Ana can survive this rash of landfalls and the shear...she will move into the southeast Gulf of Mexico towards the end of the forecast period.

Forecast Positions and Intensity:

16/21Z 15.3 N 56.5 W 35 kts

17/09Z 16.1 N 60.4 W 35 kts

17/21Z 17.3 N 64.4 W 45 kts

18/09Z 18.2 N 68.3 W 50 kts

19/09Z 20.0 N 75.5 W 35 kts...inland

20/09Z 22.0 N 81.0 W 35 kts...inland

21/09Z 23.5 N 85.5 W 45 kts...offshore

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

2100Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Ana

At 5:00 PM EDT...the government of the Netherlands Antilles have issued a tropical storm watch St. Maarten...Saba...and St. Eustatius. Tropical storm watch mean that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours.

At 5:00 PM EDT (2100Z) the center of Tropical Storm Ana was located near 14.4 N 49.6 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...some slight strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours. Movement is towards the west at 17 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual motion to the west-northwest in 24 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb/29.68 in.

Ana have once again been struggling with the upper level winds...and have not strengthen during the past 6 hours and Dvorak Estimates continue to show 2.5 so have left the intensity at 35 kts. Upper level winds will gradually become more favorable in about 12 hours and with warmer water temperatures...this will allow for Ana to intensify over the next 5 days and I do have Ana becoming a hurricane in about 4 days.

Initial motion 270/15 kts. Due to the slight south of due west motion during the past 6 hours...I have moved the forecast track south of the previous forecast track and because of the southward adjustment...Tropical Storm Watches have been posted for portions of the Leeward Islands. Beyond the Leeward Islands...I expect that Ana to move through Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in about 4 days and towards the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 5 days. There is still a few uncertainties with this exact track as a stronger Ana will keep the forecast track further north so all areas from the Caribbean to the Gulf coast need to monitor the progress of Ana.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

16/09Z 14.9 N 52.3 W 35 kts

16/21Z 15.7 N 55.9 W 40 kts

17/09Z 16.5 N 59.8 W 45 kts

17/21Z 17.5 N 63.8 W 50 kts

18/21Z 19.5 N 71.5 W 60 kts

19/21Z 21.5 N 78.0 W 65 kts

20/21Z 23.5 N 83.0 W 65 kts

Tropical Storm Bill

At 5:00 PM EDT (2100Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Bill as located near 11.4 N 37.2 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph and strengthening is forecasted and Bill could become a hurricane in 48 hours. Movement is to the west near 17 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west-northwest. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb/29.65 in.

Bill is continuing to become better organized and with the Dvorak numbers at 2.5...Bill became the second named storm today. With a low to moderate shearing environment and water temperatures 27 to 28 C...conditions will remain favorable for continued development during the next 5 days and I still have Bill becoming a hurricane in 48 hours and a strong category 2 hurricane in 5 days.

Initial motion 265/15 kts. I have not changed the overall forecast track of Bill from the previous forecast update. I fully still expect that Bill will gradually make a west-northwest motion and with that motion...Bill should not affect the Leeward Islands at this time...but with Bill being a fairly large tropical system...some affects will be felt. I/m also thinking that Bill will remain north of Puerto Rico and further down the line...could have some impacts on the Bahamas...but that is outside the forecast period. All areas from the Leeward Islands to the Gulf coast and even the southeast coast need to monitor the progress of Bill.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

16/09Z 11.4 N 37.2 W 40 kts

16/21Z 11.8 N 40.2 W 50 kts

17/09Z 12.4 N 43.1 W 55 kts

17/21Z 13.2 N 46.1 W 65 kts

18/21Z 15.0 N 52.0 W 80 kts

19/21Z 18.0 N 57.0 W 85 kts

20/21Z 20.5 N 63.0 W 90 kts

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1630Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Ana

At Noon EDT (1600Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Ana is located near 14.3 N 48.2 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...some slow strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours. Movement is toward the west at 16 mph...and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west-northwest. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb/29.68 in.

Looking at Ana right now...she is once again moving through increasing shear and the thunderstorms that she had built up earlier this morning have waned. Ana will be moving through 15 to 20 kts of shear over the next few days and with Ana being such a small system...the shear could greatly effect her circulation. Right now however I am going with slow strengthening through the forecast period and have increased the intensity from the last package to a minimum hurricane by day 5.

Initial motion 265/14 kts. Ana have been moving just south of due west due...mainly due to her being a small system...but I am expecting a gradual turn to the west-northwest in time and will affect the Leeward Islands to the point that some watches may be needed later today. Following the Leeward Islands should continue to the west-northwest through the Southern Bahamas and could be near Southern Florida as a hurricane in 5 days. However if Ana struggles through the shear...her track will be further south. Overall...my forecast track is a little north of the previous update and close to NHCs forecast track...bringing Ana very near the Southern Florida coast in 5 days. All areas from the Leeward Islands to the southeast and Gulf coasts need to monitor the progress of this storm.

Forecast positions and intensity:

16/04Z 15.0 N 50.5 W 40 kts

16/16Z 16.0 N 54.1 W 45 kts

17/04Z 17.1 N 57.9 W 45 kts

17/16Z 18.1 N 62.1 W 55 kts

18/16Z 20.5 N 70.0 W 60 kts

19/16Z 23.0 N 76.5 W 60 kts

20/16Z 24.5 N 80.5 W 65 kts

Tropical Depression Three

At Noon EDT (1600Z)...the center of Tropical Depression Three is located near 11.5 N 36.3 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...some strengthening is expected and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or on Sunday. Movement is toward the west at 20 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb/29.71 in.

I have been monitoring this system since it moved off the African coast several days ago and have done nothing but get better organized with each passing hour and now...thunderstorms concentrated near the center of circulation...and this system has now been classified as a tropical depression. This system is further south than Ana...so this depression will have less dry air to worry about and less of a shear environment...plus the circulation is bigger than that of Ana and all forecast models do indicate that this system will strengthen over the next 5 days and I have this system a hurricane in 48 hours and near major hurricane strength in 5 days...at 90 kts and looking at some of the longer term models...this system have the potential to be much stronger than what I have forecasted.

Initial motion 265/17 kts. This system again is further south than Ana...and with this system expected to strengthen quickly...the general motion of the depression will be west-northwest in time. Current forecast track will bring the depression just north of the Leeward Islands in 5 days...but this system could be strong enough that effects will be felt so the Leeward Islands could receive a double whammy over the next 3 to 5 days.

Forecast positions and intensity:

16/04Z 11.6 N 36.3 W 35 kts

16/16Z 11.6 N 39.5 W 45 kts

17/04Z 12.0 N 42.7 W 55 kts

17/16Z 12.6 N 45.9 W 65 kts

18/16Z 14.5 N 52.0 W 80 kts

19/16Z 17.0 N 57.0 W 90 kts

20/16Z 20.5 N 62.5 W 90 kts

Atlantic Tropical Update

At 5:00 AM EDT (0900Z) the center of Tropical Storm Ana is located near 14.6 N 46.3 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph and further strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours. Movement is to the west at 15 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual motion to the west-northwest in 24 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb/29.68 in.

Finally...we have our first named storm of the season and not too far behind from having a second named storm as well. But let/s concentrate on Ana which have developed back into a tropical system a few hours ago. Looking at the intensity forecast...with a moderate shearing environment and water temperatures around 27 to 28C...expecting for Ana to continue to intensify over the next 5 days. I have forecasted for Ana to reach near hurricane strength in day 5.

Initial motion is 270/13 kts. Expecting that Ana will continue to move to the west for another 12 to 24 hours followed by a motion to the west-northwest for the remainder of the forecast period. Towards the end of the forecast period will have to watch the progress of Ana very carefully as it could affect the United States...possibly as a hurricane so all areas from the Southeast to the Gulf Coast need to monitor this system.

Forecast Positions:
15/21Z 15.2 N 48.8 W 40 kts
16/09Z 16.0 N 52.1 W 45 kts
16/21Z 17.0 N 55.9 W 50 kts
17/09Z 17.9 N 60.0 W 50 kts
18/09Z 20.0 N 68.0 W 55 kts
19/09Z 22.0 N 75.5 W 55 kts
20/09Z 23.5 N 80.5 W 60 kts