03Z Tropical Update-Igor

HURRICANE IGOR FORECAST 5
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:09 PM EDT SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2010

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6 N 47.8 W OR 1005 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IGOR WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH. IGOR IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IGOR COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON MONDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB/27.61 IN.

IGOR IS NOW THE STRONGEST HURRICANE ACCORDING TO WIND SPEED IN SEVERAL YEARS. IGOR CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 6.5/6.5 AND ADT OF 6.6 THEREFORE IGOR HAS INCREASED FURTHER TO 130 KTS. IGOR IS CLOSE TO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE STRENGTH. I/M FORECASTING FOR IGOR TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS THEN IGOR WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IGOR WILL GO THROUGH EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...BUT IGOR WILL REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION 270/11 KTS. FORECASTING THINKING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IGOR WILL FOLLOW THE RIDGE AND IGOR WILL MOVE TO THE WEST AND THEN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST TRACK CURRENTLY WILL TAKE IGOR NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IT IS VERY CLOSE TO NHC FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

13/03Z 17.6 N 47.8 W 130 KTS
13/15Z 18.0 N 49.4 W 140 KTS
14/03Z 18.5 N 51.3 W 135 KTS
14/15Z 19.2 N 53.0 W 135 KTS
15/03Z 20.1 N 54.5 W 130 KTS
16/03Z 22.5 N 57.5 W 125 KTS
17/03Z 24.5 N 61.0 W 115 KTS
18/03Z 27.0 N 64.0 W 105 KTS

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update-Julia

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED 13.5 N 23.5 W OR 110 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. JULIA WAS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH AND STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND JULIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB/29.65 IN.

JULIA IS CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ESTIMATES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND 35 KTS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE EASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTING JULIA WILL WEAKEN AND THIS WILL GIVE JULIA A CHANCE TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND JULIA WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AND JULIA WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10 KTS. JULIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEER BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST THINKING REMAINS THE SAME WITH A NUDGE TO THE WEST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND MY FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NHC FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

13/03Z 13.5 N 23.5 W 35 KTS
13/15Z 14.4 N 25.2 W 45 KTS
14/03Z 15.8 N 27.5 W 55 KTS
14/15Z 17.4 N 29.7 W 65 KTS
15/03Z 19.2 N 31.6 W 70 KTS
16/03Z 22.5 N 35.5 W 75 KTS
17/03Z 25.5 N 38.5 W 75 KTS
18/03Z 28.5 N 43.5 W 65 KTS

JACKSON

19Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE IGOR SPECIAL FORECAST 4
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
2:48 PM EDT SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2010

AT 2:30 PM EDT/1830Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7 N 46.1 W OR 1120 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IGOR WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 135 MPH. IGOR IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CONTINUED STRENGHTENING IS FORECAST AND IGOR COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR MONDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB/28.05 IN.

THIS A SPECIAL UPDATE TO INCREASE THE WINDS OF EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IGOR...NOW WITH WINDS OF 115 KTS. CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND IGOR COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE.


JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update-TD 12

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 FORECAST 1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:37 AM EDT SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO..SAO TIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7 N 21.4 W OR 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN A FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH AND THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB/29.71 IN.

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF AFRICA A FEW DAYS AGO HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND FORECASTS HAVE BEGUN ON THE 12TH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON. SHEAR IS AROUND 10 KTS AND SHOULD LESSEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS WHEN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.

INITIAL MOTION 275/12 KTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING THE DEPRESSION WELL AWAY FROM ANY LAND AREAS AND MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST TRACK IS NORTHEAST OF NHC FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12/15Z 12.7 N 21.4 W 30 KTS
13/03Z 13.3 N 23.1 W 40 KTS
13/15Z 14.5 N 25.5 W 50 KTS
14/03Z 16.0 N 27.8 W 60 KTS
14/15Z 17.6 N 29.8 W 65 KTS
15/15Z 21.5 N 33.0 W 75 KTS
16/15Z 25.5 N 36.5 W 70 KTS
17/15Z 28.5 N 40.0 W 60 KTS

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update-Igor

HURRICANE IGOR FORECAST 3
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:10 AM EDT SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7 N 45.7 W OR 1145 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IGOR WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...THE GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED IN A FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH. IGOR IS A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IGOR WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB/28.64 IN.

IGOR IS NOW GOING THROUGH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION CYCLE. ADT NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 5.5 WITH OTHER NUMBERS AROUND 4.5/4.5. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KTS. WITH VERY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND SHEAR BELOW 10 KTS...IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND IGOR COULD COME VERY CLOSE TO CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH WITHIN 72 HOURS BEFORE IGOR GO THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND WILL WEAKEN SOME BUT WILL REMAIN A MAJOR...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION 270/11 KTS. THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE IGOR MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS OF THE TROUGH AND TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS FORECAST TRACK SHOULD KEEP IGOR AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NOW WHETHER IGOR WILL HAVE AN AFFECTS ON THE UNITED STATES OR BERMUDA REMAINS TO BE SEEN...LOOKING AT THE LONGER TERM MODELS A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IGOR OUT TO SEA. FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF NHC FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12/15Z 17.7 N 45.7 W 90 KTS
13/03Z 18.3 N 47.3 W 95 KTS
13/15Z 18.9 N 49.6 W 105 KTS
14/03Z 19.5 N 51.8 W 115 KTS
14/15Z 20.0 N 53.8 W 125 KTS
15/15Z 21.5 N 57.0 W 130 KTS
16/15Z 24.0 N 59.5 W 130 KTS
17/15Z 27.0 N 62.5 W 120 KTS

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL STORM IGOR FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 AM EDT SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 11, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4 N 39.5W OR 1470 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IGOR WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...AND THIS MOTION WITH A DECREASE OF FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...AND IGOR STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IGOR WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB/29.38 IN.

DESPITE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN IGOR...AN EYE FEATURE IS SHOWN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND WHILE WE COULD TECHNICALLY CALL IGOR A HURRICANE...DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASE SOMEWHAT...SO WILL KEEP IGOR A 60 KT STRONG TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A BIT OF EASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTING IGOR AND THIS WILL DECREASE AS THE DAY GO ON AND ALL MODELS POINT TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO THE POINT THAT I HAVE IGOR AS A LARGE...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 4 DAYS. NHCS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN MINE...AND I THINK IT WILL BECOME A CATEGORY 4 STORM WITHIN 4 DAYS BECAUSE SHEAR WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND IGOR WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WATERS OF AT LEAST 28 TO 29 C. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IGOR COULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN WHAT I/M FORECASTING ESPECIALLY IF IGOR GOES THROUGH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION CYCLE...WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

INITIAL IS A BIT SLOWER...275/17 KTS. FORECAST TRACK WITH IGOR WILL FOLLOW THE STEERING CURRENTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER TOWARDS DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...A WEAKNESS IN THE TROUGH COULD SLOW DOWN IGOR TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND COULD ACTUALLY MOVE MORE ERRATIC THAN WHAT I/M SHOWING...BUT OVER A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NHCS FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MY FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

11/15Z 17.4 N 39.5 W 60 KTS
12/03Z 17.8 N 41.7 W 65 KTS
12/15Z 18.3 N 44.7 W 75 KTS
13/03Z 18.9 N 47.6 W 85 KTS
13/15Z 19.1 N 50.2 W 90 KTS
14/15Z 19.0 N 54.5 W 110 KTS
15/15Z 19.5 N 56.5 W 115 KTS
16/15Z 22.0 N 58.0 W 115 KTS

JACKSON

14Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
10:08 AM EDT SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 11, 2010

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER ARE ISSUING FORECASTS ON TROPICAL STORM IGOR...LOCATED 915 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 70 MPH WINDS.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST.

STRONG WAVE JUST READY TO MOVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND A DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVING TO THE WEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL STORM IGOR FORECAST 1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 8, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8 N 24.6 W OR 70 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IGOR WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...AND STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IGOR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB/29.68 IN.

IGOR IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME SHEAR AND HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE ONLY AT 1.5/1.5 WHICH IS ONLY AT 25 KTS WHILE ADT NUMBERS ARE AT 3.0 OR 45 KTS...SO COMPROMISED AND MAINTAINED THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KTS. WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...IGOR WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHEAR AND WILL BE UNDER 10 KTS OF SHEAR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS STRENGTHENING AND IGOR WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT DO NOT THINK THAT IGOR WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO NHCs.

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6 KTS. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IGOR CONTINUES TO FEEL THE LOW TO ITS NORTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...IGOR MAY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND THIS WILL CAUSE IGOR TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AGAIN. FORECAST TRACK IS THEREFORE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

09/03Z 13.8 N 24.6 W 40 KTS
09/15Z 14.3 N 25.9 W 45 KTS
10/03Z 15.1 N 28.0 W 50 KTS
10/15Z 16.2 N 30.6 W 55 KTS
11/03Z 17.3 N 33.5 W 65 KTS
12/03Z 19.0 N 39.5 W 75 KTS
13/03Z 20.0 N 45.0 W 85 KTS
14/03Z 21.0 N 49.5 W 90 KTS

JACKSON

17Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
12:43 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 8, 2010

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER ARE ISSUING FORECAST FOR RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM IGOR...LOCATED 95 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 40 MPH WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 18
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 2, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWESTWARD TO DIGBY...MEDWAY HARBOUR NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND AULDS COVE WESTWARD TO TIDNISH
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8 N 74.4 W OR 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH. EARL IS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB/28.08 IN.

EARL IS STILL ON HIS WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL WERE MEASURED AT 124 MPH...WINDS AT THE SURFACE WERE NO HIGHER THAN 90 KTS SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMPLE...EARL WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WITHIN 36 HOURS...EARL WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 015/16 KTS. EARL AT TIMES HAVE BEEN WOBBLING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT TIMES BUT OVERALL IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH. FORECAST TRACK IS FOR EARL TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A FASTER FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS COURSE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS.

THOUGH EARL IS WEAKENING...THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING SO EFFECTS WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE AREA AS WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO NOVA SCOTIA.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

03/03Z 33.8 N 74.4 W 90 KTS
03/15Z 35.3 N 73.4 W 80 KTS
04/03Z 37.9 N 70.3 W 75 KTS
04/15Z 41.1 N 66.3 W 65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/03Z 45.3 N 61.6 W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
06/03Z DISSIPATED

JACKSON

00Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE FORECAST 17A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:00 PM EDT THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 2, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER

AT 8:00 PM EDT/0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0 N 74.7 W OR 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING NORTH AT 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH. EARL IS NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND EARL WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 TO 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB/27.99 IN.

COMPLETE UPDATE ON EARL AT 11 PM EDT.


JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 17
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 2, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5 N 75.2 W OR 185 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER RATE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL COME NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL WILL LIKELY BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN 72 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB/27.96 IN.

EARL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...THE EYE IS NOW FILLED IN AND WINDS ARE NOW DOWN TO 100 KTS. EARL WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HE HEADS TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. EARL IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THE FORECAST POINTS THIS OUT.

INITIAL IS DUE NORTH AT 16 KTS. EARL HAVE MADE THE DUE NORTH TURN. NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL IT BE UNTIL EARL BEGINS TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST TRACK REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED AND THINKING THAT THE NORTHEAST TURN WILL HAPPEN IN 10 TO 12 HOURS COMING NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND THE OUTER BANKS BEFORE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST.

DO NOT FOCUS ON THE HURRICANE CENTER AS EARL IS A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM AND ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE AREA.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

02/21Z 32.5 N 75.2 W 100 KTS
03/09Z 34.0 N 74.7 W 100 KTS
03/21Z 36.4 N 72.5 W 95 KTS
04/09Z 39.2 N 68.8 W 80 KTS
04/21Z 43.1 N 64.4 W 65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/21Z 51.0 N 55.0 W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL/DISSIPATING

JACKSON

18Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE FORECAST 16A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
2:05 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 2, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE.
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER.

AT 2:00 PM EDT/1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7 N 75.2 W OR 245 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS BY TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 125 MPH. EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB/27.85 IN.

COMPLETE DETAILS AT 5 PM EDT.

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 16
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:13 AM EDT THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 2, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9 N 74.8 W OR 300 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 18 MPH...ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH. EARL REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...AND EARL WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY FRIDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB/27.52 IN.

EARL EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AND NOW IS STARTING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE AT 120 KTS. FORECAST IS FOR EARL TO AT FIRST SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT AS EARL MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS AND HIGHER SHEAR...EARL WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS. EARL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 48 HOURS AND COMPLETE THE TRANSITION IN 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THE FORECAST SHOWS THIS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 355/16 KTS. EARL IS BEGINNING TO MOVE MORE AND MORE TO THE NORTH. THE KEY LONGITUDE IS 75W. AS LONG AS EARL DO NOT CROSS MUCH PAST 75W...THE CORE OF EARL WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND EFFECTS WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE AREA. EARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF CAPE COD MAY SEE A DIRECT HIT FROM EARL BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH PROMPTED HURRICANE WARNINGS TO GO UP. ALL AREA ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
02/15Z 30.9 N 74.8 W 120 KTS
03/03Z 32.8 N 75.0 W 115 KTS
03/15Z 33.9 N 73.9 W 105 KTS
04/03Z 38.4 N 70.9 W 95 KTS
04/15Z 42.0 N 66.5 W 75 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/15Z 50.5 N 57.0 W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 15
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:07 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 1, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8 N 73.8 W OR 520 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF EARL WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASSING NEAR OF OVER THE OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 140 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 932 MB/27.52 IN.

NOAA RECON FLIGHT DURING THE INVESTIGATION OF EARL FOUND A WIND SPEED OF 137 KTS...WHICH EQUALS TO ABOUT 120 KTS AT THE SURFACE AND THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. EARL IS VERY WELL DEFINED WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ON ALL QUADS...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST STRENGTHENING. I/M NOT FORECASTING ANYMORE STRENGTHENING WITH EARL...AND WHILE EARL DO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT MORE...BY THIS TIME TOMORROW IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ONCE EARL MOVES NORTH OF THE DELMARVA...WATER TEMPERATURES DROP AND SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND EARL WILL BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL PHRASE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND BE AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION DESPITE SOME WOBBLES TO THE NORTH IS 330/16 KTS. ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WORRY ME AS A FORECASTER CURRENTLY IS THAT EARL IS MOVING FASTER THAN THE TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EARL OUT TO SEA. WITH THAT IN MIND...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT EARL/S TURN TO THE NORTHEAST COULD BE DELAYED BY 10 TO 20 MILES AND IT MAKES A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS. WHILE THAT SCENARIO WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WILL BE KEPT IN CONSIDERATION FOR TOMORROW/S VERY IMPORTANT FORECASTS. MY OVERALL FORECAST TRACK IS A BASIC UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD NUDGE BY 10 OR SO MILES. EVEN THEN...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EYE OF EARL...THIS IS A LARGE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND IMPACTS WILL BE FELT FOR A LARGE AREA.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

02/03Z 27.8 N 73.8 W 120 KTS
02/15Z 29.7 N 74.9 W 120 KTS
03/03Z 32.5 N 75.2 W 115 KTS
03/15Z 35.0 N 74.1 W 100 KTS
04/03Z 38.0 N 70.0 W 90 KTS
05/03Z 45.5 N 61.0 W 45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
06/03Z 53.5 N 50.5 W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL


JACKSON