2100Z Tropical Update

At 5:00 PM EDT (2100Z)...the center of newly formed Tropical Depression 7 is located near 12.5 N 24.5 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph and strengthening is expected and could become a tropical storm later tonight or on Tuesday. Movement is to the west at 17 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual motion to the west-northwest on Tuesday...on the forecast track...the depression should remain south of the Cape Verde Islands. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb/29.68 in.

The wave that moved off the African coast developed fairly rapidly and maintained its concentration of thunderstorms and thus have become the 7th depression of the season. Dvorak Estimates right now places the depression at 1.5 and makes sense that the inital intensity will be 30 kts. Conditions will be favorable for a few days for the depression to continue to strengthen and should quickly become a tropical storm within the next 12 hours. Beyond that I do have the depression to briefly reach hurricane strength in 72 hours before weakening due to increased shear and decreasing temperatures.

Initial motion is 280/15 kts. This motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west-northwest in about 12 to 24 hours. A series of deep troughs will move off the East Coast over the course of the next several days and almost all the forecast models do not progress this system further west than 45 W and my forecast track indicates that this will for the most part be a fish storm or a storm that will only affect marine interest with the expection of the Cape Verde Islands...where they can expect some squally weather over the next few days.

Quick Note: Normally I would have a chart of the forecast positions...due to the fact that my chart do not extend as far east as the storm location...I will be posting satellite pictures of the storm.

Forecast Positions and Intensity:

07/21Z 12.5 N 24.5 W 30 kts

08/09Z 12.9 N 26.6 W 35 kts

08/21Z 13.7 N 29.4 W 40 kts

09/09Z 14.5 N 32.2 W 50 kts

09/21Z 15.3 N 34.8 W 55 kts

10/21Z 17.5 N 37.5 W 65 kts

11/21Z 19.5 N 37.5 W 60 kts

12/21Z 20.5 N 36.5 W 50 kts

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist