0100Z Tropical Update

Hurricane Fred

At 9:00 PM EDT (0100Z)...the center of Hurricane Fred is located near 12.3 N 30.3 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. Movement is to the west-northwest near 12 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the northwest by Thursday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb/29.15 in.

Fred during the day...continue to increase in strength and the MIMIC-IR have estimated winds at 64 kts...and though Dvorak Estimates only show winds of 55 kts...I do believe that Fred have become a minimum hurricane so 65 kts is the initial intensity. Fred will move through a favorable environment over the next few days and I have peaked Fred at 75 kts in about 36 hours...before cooler water temperatures and increasing shear will cause Fred to weaken rapidly towards days 3 through 5...and would not be surprised if Fred weaken by day 4 with shear expected to increase to over 50 kts.

Initial motion 290/10 kts. Fred will continue to move on a west-northwest track for about another 12 hours...followed by a track to the northwest and then northeast in about 72 hours as a series of deep troughs will influence the track of Fred and not affect any portion of land areas...though there are a few of the forecast models that do want to pull Fred back on a north-northwest course in about 4 days...haven/t seen enough evidence of this yet in the mid to upper levels to make that definitive change yet...so overall forecast track is an update from the earlier track.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

09/01Z 12.3 N 30.3 W 65 kts

09/13Z 13.4 N 32.3 W 70 kts

10/01Z 14.5 N 34.4 W 75 kts

10/13Z 15.5 N 36.1 W 75 kts

11/01Z 16.3 N 37.1 W 70 kts

12/01Z 17.5 N 37.0 W 55 kts

13/01Z 19.0 N 35.5 W 40 kts

14/01Z 22.0 N 33.5 W 25 kts...becoming extratropical

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist