1300Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Fred

At 9:00 AM EDT (1300Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Fred is located near 11.8 N 27.8 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 55 mph...some further strengthening is expected and Fred could become a hurricane later today or on Wednesday. Motion is to the west at 15 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual motion to the west-northwest later today or on Wednesday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb/29.53 in.

Fred...while at times had to get decent satellite pictures...continues to get better organized. The MIMIC-IR have estimated winds at 48 kts or 55 mph...so this is the initial intensity. Last night...I trimmed down the intensity forecast a tad...now I'm trimming it back up and think now that Fred could reach minimum hurricane strength in about 24 hours since environmental conditions still remain favorable for about another 3 days...then as Fred moves into cooler waters and higher shear...Fred will begin his quick demise as I have lowered Fred from a category 1 hurricane in 72 hours to barely a storm in 5 days...and even during this time there is a chance depending on how quickly the shear and cooler waters take over Fred could be extratropical by this time.

Initial motion 270/13 kts. I/m expecting for this motion to continue for about another 12 to 24 hours...then followed by a turn to the west-northwest in response to several deep troughs moving off the East Coast that in turn will pull Fred to the northwest then the northeast in time...never reaching 40 W. Fred will remain a fish storm as it cruises the far Eastern Atlantic during the forecast period...may have some impacts on the Azores Islands in 5 to 7 days.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

08/13Z 11.8 N 27.8 W 48 kts

09/01Z 12.4 N 29.3 W 55 kts

09/13Z 13.1 N 31.8 W 65 kts

10/01Z 13.8 N 34.0 W 65 kts

10/13Z 14.6 N 35.6 W 65 kts

11/13Z 16.0 N 36.0 W 65 kts

12/13Z 17.5 N 34.5 W 50 kts

13/13Z 20.0 N 32.5 W 35 kts

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist