Tropical Storm Fred
At 11:00 PM EDT (0300Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Fred is located near 12.6 N 25.5 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours. Motion is towards the west at 16 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west-northwest on Tuesday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb/29.65 in.
Satellite pictures at times have been hard to obtain at times with the and have continued to look better organized so have upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Fred. Even though Fred looks organized on satellite with ADT numbers around 2.5...overall I have lowered my intensity forecast slightly from the last update to keep it as a strong tropical storm rather than a minimum hurricane. Increasing shear and cooler water temperatures will cause for the storm to weaken in about 96 hours and could even become extratropical by the end of the forecast period.
Initial motion is 275/14 kts. Fred is being steered by a subtropical ridge over the Central Atlantic. This motion will be fairly short lived as a series of deep troughs moving off the East Coast of the U.S. will greatly influence the track of the Fred and my forecast track do not bring Fred any further west than 36 W as the Fred will not affect any major land areas during the forecast period...however will cause some squally weather to the Cape Verde Island during the next 24 to 30 hours.
Forecast Positions and Intensity:
At 11:00 PM EDT (0300Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Fred is located near 12.6 N 25.5 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours. Motion is towards the west at 16 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west-northwest on Tuesday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb/29.65 in.
Satellite pictures at times have been hard to obtain at times with the and have continued to look better organized so have upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Fred. Even though Fred looks organized on satellite with ADT numbers around 2.5...overall I have lowered my intensity forecast slightly from the last update to keep it as a strong tropical storm rather than a minimum hurricane. Increasing shear and cooler water temperatures will cause for the storm to weaken in about 96 hours and could even become extratropical by the end of the forecast period.
Initial motion is 275/14 kts. Fred is being steered by a subtropical ridge over the Central Atlantic. This motion will be fairly short lived as a series of deep troughs moving off the East Coast of the U.S. will greatly influence the track of the Fred and my forecast track do not bring Fred any further west than 36 W as the Fred will not affect any major land areas during the forecast period...however will cause some squally weather to the Cape Verde Island during the next 24 to 30 hours.
Forecast Positions and Intensity:
08/03Z 12.6 N 25.5 W 30 kts
08/15Z 12.9 N 27.8 W 40 kts
09/03Z 13.6 N 30.3 W 45 kts
09/15Z 14.4 N 32.6 W 50 kts
10/03Z 15.3 N 34.5 W 60 kts
11/03Z 17.5 N 36.0 W 60 kts
12/03Z 20.0 N 34.5 W 50 kts
13/03Z 22.0 N 34.0 W 45 kts
Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist
Tropical Specialist
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