Tropical Storm Erika
Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Northern Leeward Islands. Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible...generally 36 hours. Puerto Rico and the southeastern Bahamas need to monitor the progress of Erika.
At 11:00 PM EDT (0300Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Erika is located near 17.4 N 57.7 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...some strengthening is possible and Erika could become a hurricane on Wednesday. Movement is to the northwest at 2 mph...and this motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed. Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb/29.65 in.
Erika have continued to develop during the day and have become a tropical storm...since then Erika have increased in strength and despite Dvorak Estimates of only 2.5 or 35 kts...Recon Aircraft have found winds in excess of 50 kts...and have gone with that for initial intensity. Erika will have about a 36 to 48 hour window to strengthen before encountering higher wind shear. I do expect for Erika to become a hurricane for about 24 hours...then weaken back down to a tropical storm. There are some models that dissipate Erika in 4 to 5 days...but the most reliable models do weaken Erika but not dissipate totally and have gone with this solution for the intensity forecast.
Initial motion 315/2 kts. Erika have been moving very little during the past 6 hours...but a west-northwest to northwest motion at around 9 to 11 kts is expected to resume in a few hours. Forecast models have been all over the place with this system since it was declared a invest last week. With the forecast for Erika to become weaker in a few days...have gone more on the left side of the model guidance over the next 3 to 5 days...which could impact the Bahamas and possibly the United States in 5 to 7 days. Therefore...areas on the Bahamas need to monitor the progress of this storm.
Forecast Positions and Intensity:
02/03Z 17.4 N 57.7 W 50 kts
02/15Z 18.0 N 58.7 W 60 kts
03/03Z 18.8 N 60.0 W 70 kts
03/15Z 19.5 N 61.4 W 70 kts
04/03Z 20.0 N 62.9 W 70 kts
05/03Z 21.0 N 66.0 W 65 kts
06/03Z 22.0 N 69.0 W 55 kts
07/03Z 23.5 N 72.0 W 50 kts
Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist
Tropical Specialist
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