Tropical Storm Erika
Tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Northern Leeward Islands. Tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions is expected within 24 hours.
At 9:00 AM EDT (1300Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Erika is located near 17.1 N 59.3 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...little change in strength is expected today. Movement is towards the west at 10 mph...and this motion is expected to continue. Minimum central pressure as reported by Recon Aircraft 1008 mb/29.77 in.
The intensity forecast and the forecast track has changed significantly since the last update. There is not much confidence in both the forecast track or in the intensity of this update and there will likely be more changes over the next few days. Currently Erika is undergoing some shear and have weaken some and is down now to 40 kts. While I have Erika increasing in strength some...the fact that she is a weaker storm means that she will likely make more of a westerly track...therefore I now have adjusted my forecast track to move Erika through the Caribbean Sea...affecting Puerto Rico...the Virgin Islands...and Hispaniola during the next 4 days and due to the interaction of land areas...have adjusted the intensity forecast downward...and may not survive the next 5 days. All areas from Puerto Rico westward need to monitor the progress of this storm.
Forecast Positions and Intensity
02/13Z 17.1 N 59.3 W 40 kts
03/01Z 16.8 N 61.6 W 40 kts
03/13Z 17.4 N 63.1 W 45 kts
04/01Z 17.8 N 64.6 W 55 kts
04/13Z 18.2 N 66.1 W 50 kts...over Puerto Rico
05/13Z 18.5 N 69.0 W 45 kts...over Dominican Republic
06/13Z 19.0 N 72.5 W 35 kts...over Haiti
07/13Z 19.5 N 75.0 W 30 kts...over water
Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist
Tropical Specialist
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