1300Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Erika

Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for the Northern Leeward Islands. Tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected in 24 hours.

Tropical storm watch remains in effect for Puerto Rico...and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours.

At 9:00 AM EDT (1300Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Erika is located near 16.6 N 63.0 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...little change in strength is expected. Movement is toward the west-northwest at 7 mph...on the forecast track...Erika will move through Puerto Rico on Friday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb/29.83 in.

Yesterday...I had very little confidence in my forecast track and intensity...well most models after I posted my update shifted their models westward...meaning that I should have more confidence in my forecast. Well this morning...I intend to again go outside the box...especially with my intensity forecast. NHCs forecast call for Erika to dissipate in about 96 hours in a hostile environment...after looking at the current shear levels and intensity...there is a chance that Erika could survive the moderate to high shear...but could still get killed off by the proximity of land that she will be close to. So for my intensity forecast...I have slowly increased the winds of Erika to 50 kts while moving over Cuba in about 5 days. Of course her intensity will all depend on how close will she move to land...and westward track...and Erika would be killed off over Hispaniola with the high mountainous terrain. My track forecast...being that Erika is still a weak system though there are thunderstorms to the east of the center of circulation...will continue to be to the left of NHCs forecast track...but not west enough so that the circulation of Erika gets killed off. I expect that Erika could survive the next 5 days and potentially move into the Gulf...this of course remains to be seen over the next several days. If the shear relaxes as I/m thinking...Erika could strengthen a little more than what I have forecasted...therefore all areas Puerto Rico westward need to monitor the progress of Erika.

Forecast Position and Intensity

03/13Z 16.6 N 63.0 W 35 kts

04/01Z 17.6 N 64.6 W 40 kts

04/13Z 18.4 N 66.1 W 35 kts...over Puerto Rico

05/01Z 19.1 N 67.5 W 40 kts...over water

05/13Z 19.7 N 69.0 W 45 kts

06/13Z 20.5 N 72.0 W 45 kts

07/13Z 21.0 N 75.0 W 45 kts

08/13Z 22.0 N 78.0 W 50 kts...over Cuba

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist