HURRICANE IDA FORECAST # 9
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
10:11 AM EST MONDAY NOVEMBER 9, 2009
Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect from Grand Isle LA to Aucilla River FL...including the Metro New Orleans area. Tropical storm warnings mean that tropical storm conditions are expected...generally within 24 hours.
At 10 AM CST (1500Z)...the center of Hurricane Ida was located near 26.0 N 88.2 W or 325 miles south of Mobile AL. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...further weakening is expected and Ida will begin to lose tropical characteristics within the next 12 to 24 hours. Motion is toward the north-northwest near 18 mph and this general motion is expected to continue with a turn to the north-northeast in 24 hours...on the forecast track...Ida will be making landfall near the Alabama/Mississippi border late tonight or early Tuesday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb/29.32 in.
Ida since moving into the Gulf of Mexico have seen its overall structure basically fall apart behind the strong shear and cooler water temperatures. Officially NHC now have downgraded Ida to a tropical storm which is very agreeable...however when I was doing my analysis over an hour ago...I still saw a few signs that Ida was still a minimum hurricane...so while Ida is indeed a tropical storm now...just for the this forecast...Ida will remain a minimum hurricane with 65 kts winds. All hurricane warnings have now been dropped. Ida will continue to weaken over the next few days and will begin the transition from tropical to extratropical within the next 12 hours or so...if not sooner. Ida should however remain a tropical system until shortly after landfall when transition should be completed. Ida will be absorbed by a frontal system within 72 hours.
Initial motion 330/16 kts. While the center of Ida is continuing to become more difficult to locate...track reasoning remains the same as Ida will make landfall near the Alabama/Mississippi border late tonight or Tuesday morning and then turn to the northeast until the system is absorbed by a frontal system.
Forecast Position and Intensity:
09/15Z 26.0 N 88.2 W 65 kts
10/03Z 29.0 N 88.7 W 55 kts
10/15Z 31.8 N 88.1 W 45 kts...inland/extratropical
11/03Z 33.5 N 85.9 W 35 kts...inland/extratropical
11/15Z 34.1 N 82.2 W 25 kts...inland/extratropical
12/03Z Absorbed by frontal system
JACKSON
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