TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST # 3
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
10:20 PM EST FRIDAY NOVEMBER 6, 2009
At 10 PM EST (0300Z)...the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located near 16.1 N 84.0 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...some strengthening is possible and Ida could become a tropical storm again on Saturday. Motion is toward the north at 7 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the north-northwest on Saturday and then a turn to the northeast early next week. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb/29.71 in.
Ida have been over the warm waters of the Caribbean for most of the afternoon and evening hours and slowly have been reorganizing. Ida will be kept at 30 kts for this update...but is close to reaching tropical storm strength and forecast that it will within the next 24 hours. After about 48 hours of some modest strengthening...Ida will move into 50 to 60 kts of shear and this will cause Ida to weaken and become extratropical while crossing southern Florida towards the end of the forecast period.
Initial motion 360/6 kts. Ida will continue to move on a north to north-northwest motion in influence of a mid-level high. Afterwards expecting for Ida to basically move to the northeast and then southeast through the remainder of the forecast period as Ida becomes extratropical and merges with a frontal system...however what/s left of Ida before becoming extratropical could affect southern Florida by the end of the forecast period.
Forecast Position and Intensity:
07/03Z 16.1 N 84.0 W 30 kts
07/15Z 17.3 N 84.3 W 30 kts
08/03Z 18.6 N 84.8 W 35 kts
08/15Z 19.9 N 85.5 W 40 kts
09/03Z 21.2 N 86.4 W 45 kts
10/03Z 24.0 N 87.0 W 40 kts
11/03Z 26.0 N 84.5 W 40 kts...becoming extratropical
12/03Z 25.5 N 80.0 W 30 kts...extratropical
JACKSON
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