0200Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST #2

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

9:27 PM EST WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 4, 2009

Hurricane Watches remain in effect for the East Coast of Nicaragua from Bluefields to the Honduras border. Hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Warnings remains in the effect for the entire east coast of Nicaragua. Tropical storm warnings mean that tropical storm conditions are expected...generally within 24 hours.

At 9:00 PM EST (0200Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near 12.2 N 83.0 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...little change in strength is expected prior to landfall...weakening is expected after landfall. Movement is toward the west-northwest near 7 mph...and this general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected. On the forecast track...Ida will make landfall over Eastern Nicaragua on Thursday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb/29.38 in.

Ida have been on a mini rapid intensification cycle during the day and even now...Ida have been showing an eye like feature on satellite. Dvorak and ADT Estimates is only 3.0 however the reports from the Aircraft Recon have been showing winds in excess of 55 kts and this will remain the initial intensity. Ida do have a small window to possibly become a hurricane though this is unlikely. Once Ida makes landfall...she will weaken rapidly and there is a chance that she will not survive the mountainous region...currently I do have for the intensity forecast that she will survive and move back over the water in about 72 hours for a short time before making a second landfall in 96 hours. By day 5...Ida will move back over the water and with warm SSTs...Ida will have an opportunity to restrengthen.

Initial motion 305/6 kts. Steering currents are expected to remain weak over the southwest Caribbean Sea for the next few days. The forecast track was a bit difficult to pinpoint though I feel fairly confident in the short term forecast. Beyond 48 hours...is where forecast track differs between my forecast and NHCs as overall my track is further west and faster. The main feature will be the possible formation of a extra or sub tropical low along the remnants of an old front. If this scenario plays out...then Ida will be forced to the northwest or north in time. My forecast track plays into this scenario and Ida will emerge over the Gulf of Mexico in 5 days.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

05/02Z 12.2 N 83.0 W 55 kts

05/14Z 13.1 N 83.8 W 50 kts...inland

06/02Z 14.1 N 84.8 W 35 kts...inland

06/14Z 15.1 N 85.8 W 30 kts...inland

07/02Z 16.3 N 86.5 W 30 kts...over water

08/02Z 18.5 N 87.5 W 40 kts

09/02Z 20.5 N 89.0 W 30 kts...inland

10/02Z 23.0 N 89.5 W 35 kts

JACKSON