0300Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST #5

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

9:48 PM EST SATURDAY NOVEMBER 7, 2009

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Grand Cayman Islands and on the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Allen to San Felipe.

Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for Cuban Providence of Pinar del Rio. Tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected...generally within 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Isle of Youth. Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

At 10 PM EST (0300Z)...the center of Hurricane Ida is located near 19.5 N 84.6 W or 775 miles south-southeast of Pensacola. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...some additional strengthening is possible on Sunday. Movement is toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and this motion is expected to continue through the next 24 hours. Estimated minimum central is 987 mb/29.15 in.

Ida have continued to become better organized and while NHC have "officially" kept Ida as a tropical storm...ADT numbers are 3.8 or around 63 kts and the latest MIMIC-IR estimated winds as high as 71 kts...therefore I have decided to upgrade Ida to a 65 kt hurricane. Despite moderate shear near the storm...it is not enough to cause Ida to weaken...so I/m expecting Ida to continue to gradually strengthen through48 hours before much higher shear and cooler water temperatures cause Ida to weaken. Ida will become an extratropical system while crossing the Florida Peninsula in 3 days and get absorbed by a front in about 5 days.

Initial motion 345/10 kts. Ida continues to be influenced by a mid level high and models are in fair agreement of the track of Ida through 72 hours. Beyond 72 hours...a mid level trough will begin to influence Ida/s movement and a turn to the northeast will be expected. Forecast models differ greatly as to where will Ida go while some models take Ida across the Florida Peninsula and into the Atlantic and other models take Ida close to the Florida Peninsula and move to the southeast until Ida is absorbed by the front. For now...I/m continuing with my previous forecast track moving across the Florida Peninsula before getting absorbed by the front in 5 days.

Note: Again...NHC "officially" have kept Ida as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds...however upon my analysis as discussed above I have decided to upgrade Ida to a hurricane so there is no confusion as to the official status of Ida.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

08/03Z 19.5 N 84.6 W 65 kts

08/15Z 21.3 N 85.7 W 70 kts

09/03Z 23.2 N 87.2 W 75 kts

09/15Z 25.6 N 88.3 W 75 kts

10/03Z 28.3 N 88.5 W 80 kts

11/03Z 32.0 N 84.5 W 55 kts...inland

12/03Z 32.5 N 76.0 W 25 kts...extratropical

13/03Z Absorbed by front

JACKSON