0900Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST # 7

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

3:52 AM EST SUNDAY NOVEMBER 8, 2009

For the watches and warnings...please see the previous forecast.

At 4 AM EST (0900Z)...the eye of Hurricane Ida is located near 20.2 N 85.4 W or 715 miles south of Pensacola. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...some additional strengthening is forecast and Ida could become a category 2 hurricane later today. Movement is toward the northwest near 10 mph...and this general motion is expected to continue. On the forecast track...Ida will pass very near the Yucatan Peninsula today. Minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force Recon is 983 mb/29.03 in.

Ida continue to surprise forecasters despite 20 to 25 kts of shear...Ida continues to show signs of strengthening. ADT is around 4.2 or 69 kts and Dvorake Estimates are 4.0 or 65 kts...while the MIMIC-IR was showing winds of 82 kts...and with the Recon flight currently in Ida...the highest winds they found was 82 kts...so will go with 80 kts for this forecast. Ida still have a period of time to continue to strengthen and have bumped up the peak intensity to 85 kts within 12 hours. As Ida moves into the Gulf of Mexico...shear is expected to increase to as high as 50 kts and water temperatures will drop...so I do have Ida maintaining it/s strength before weakening in the 48 to 72 hour range. Ida will turn extratropical between days 3 and 4 and will be absorbed by a front by day 5.

Initial motion is 325/9 kts...Ida have moved more to the left of the forecast track during the past 6 hours and overall this shift leftward is reflected in the current forecast track...hence hurricane warnings being posted for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. Ida is currently being steered by a mid-level ridge and this will be the steering factor for Ida during the next 24 to 48 hours. Beyond 48 hours...a models go all over the place from the southeast movement to the northeast across Florida and portions of the southeast before moving into the Atlantic. There is more of a east-southeast motion toward the end of the forecast period as a mid-level trough will become the steering factor for Ida. Ida at this time and according to my forecast track will move inland near Pensacola in about 54 to 60 hours whether it will be a tropical or extratropical system remains to be seen as to how further watches/warnings will be handled. Forecast track is close to NHCs for the short term...then my track moves Ida inland while NHCs show a more pronounced motion to the southeast in time. So all areas from Alabama to the Florida Peninsula need to monitor the progress of Ida.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

08/09Z 20.2 N 85.4 W 80 kts

08/21Z 21.8 N 86.9 W 85 kts

09/09Z 24.0 N 88.4 W 85 kts

09/21Z 26.7 N 89.1 W 85 kts

10/09Z 29.4 N 88.9 W 80 kts

11/09Z 32.0 N 84.0 W 45 kts...inland/extratropical

12/09Z 31.5 N 78.0 W 20 kts...extratropical

13/09Z Absorbed by front

JACKSON