1300Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

8:24 AM EST TUESDAY NOVEMBER 10, 2009

Tropical Forecast Center is issuing forecasts on Tropical Storm Ida located near 30.3 N 88.3 W with 45 mph winds.

Area of showers and thunderstorms located northeast of the Leeward Islands remain disorganized but is currently producing winds of 30 to 35 mph. Upper level winds are not favorable for development at this time as the area moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON

1500Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST # 9

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

10:11 AM EST MONDAY NOVEMBER 9, 2009

Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect from Grand Isle LA to Aucilla River FL...including the Metro New Orleans area. Tropical storm warnings mean that tropical storm conditions are expected...generally within 24 hours.

At 10 AM CST (1500Z)...the center of Hurricane Ida was located near 26.0 N 88.2 W or 325 miles south of Mobile AL. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...further weakening is expected and Ida will begin to lose tropical characteristics within the next 12 to 24 hours. Motion is toward the north-northwest near 18 mph and this general motion is expected to continue with a turn to the north-northeast in 24 hours...on the forecast track...Ida will be making landfall near the Alabama/Mississippi border late tonight or early Tuesday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb/29.32 in.

Ida since moving into the Gulf of Mexico have seen its overall structure basically fall apart behind the strong shear and cooler water temperatures. Officially NHC now have downgraded Ida to a tropical storm which is very agreeable...however when I was doing my analysis over an hour ago...I still saw a few signs that Ida was still a minimum hurricane...so while Ida is indeed a tropical storm now...just for the this forecast...Ida will remain a minimum hurricane with 65 kts winds. All hurricane warnings have now been dropped. Ida will continue to weaken over the next few days and will begin the transition from tropical to extratropical within the next 12 hours or so...if not sooner. Ida should however remain a tropical system until shortly after landfall when transition should be completed. Ida will be absorbed by a frontal system within 72 hours.

Initial motion 330/16 kts. While the center of Ida is continuing to become more difficult to locate...track reasoning remains the same as Ida will make landfall near the Alabama/Mississippi border late tonight or Tuesday morning and then turn to the northeast until the system is absorbed by a frontal system.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

09/15Z 26.0 N 88.2 W 65 kts

10/03Z 29.0 N 88.7 W 55 kts

10/15Z 31.8 N 88.1 W 45 kts...inland/extratropical

11/03Z 33.5 N 85.9 W 35 kts...inland/extratropical

11/15Z 34.1 N 82.2 W 25 kts...inland/extratropical

12/03Z Absorbed by frontal system

JACKSON

2100Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST #8

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

4:00 PM EST SUNDAY NOVEMBER 9, 2009

Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Grand Isle LA to Mexico Beach FL. Hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Playa del Carmen to Cabo Catoche. Hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected...generally within 24 hours.

Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Playa del Carmen.

Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Yucantan Peninsula from Punta Allen to Playa del Carmen and from Cabo Catoche to San Felipe. Warnings are also in effect for the Cuban Providence of Pinar del Sol. Tropical storm warnings mean that tropical storm conditions are likely...generally within 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Isle of Youth. Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

At 4 PM EST (2100Z)...the eye of Hurricane Ida was located near 21.9 N 86.3 W or 620 miles south of Mobile. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...which makes Ida a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible and Ida could come close to major hurricane status. Movement is toward the north-northwest near 10 mph and this general motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed over the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...Ida will continue to move into the Southern Gulf of Mexico towards the Central Gulf Coast states. Minimum central pressure just reported by the Air Force Recon Plane is 976 mb/28.82 in.

Ida have continued to strengthen slightly during the day today as ADT numbers are at 4.2 and Dvorak Estimates are around 4.5...however with the Recon Plane in...they have reported winds of 85 kts...and this will remain the initial intensity. Ida still have a small window of opportunity to strengthen before moving into cooler waters and will cause Ida to weaken and turn into an extratropical system. There are uncertainities remains as to whether Ida will truly lose all of her tropical characteristics prior to making landfall in about 48 hours. Because of the uncertainites hurricane watches have been posted for parts of the Central Gulf Coast. After Ida makes landfall...she will become extratropical and will be absorbed by a frontal system in about 5 days.

Initial motion is 330/9 kts. Ida continues to be influence by a mid level ridge. Forecast models continue to agree on the short term forecast with the north-northwest motion...however after about the 48 hour time frame is where forecast models differ greatly as a mid level trough and a cold front. My current forecast track is to the left of previous forecasts and north of NHCs as my new track now take Ida or her remnants across the southeast and offshore near the VA/NC border before being absorbed. Again...there are some uncertainties in the exact forecast track and while I have to note that NHCs previous forecast tracks have kept Ida offshore until their last two forecast packages where they have Ida moving inland. This is still not an exact science and we all as forecasters will continue to better our forecast skills.

Forecast Positions and Intensity:

08/21Z 21.9 N 86.3 W 85 kts

09/09Z 24.0 N 87.5 W 85 kts

09/21Z 26.9 N 88.4 W 85 kts

10/09Z 30.1 N 88.2 W 75 kts

10/21Z 32.7 N 86.3 W 55 kts...inland

11/21Z 35.0 N 79.0 W 30 kts...inland/extratropical

12/21Z 37.0 N 74.0 W 20 kts...extratropical

13/21Z Absorbed by front

JACKSON

1800Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

1:18 PM EST SUNDAY NOVEMBER 8, 2009

Tropical Forecast Center is currently issuing updates on Hurricane Ida...located near 21.6 N 86.0 W and 100 mph winds. Complete update on Ida coming up around 21Z.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected within 36 hours.

JACKSON

0900Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST # 7

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

3:52 AM EST SUNDAY NOVEMBER 8, 2009

For the watches and warnings...please see the previous forecast.

At 4 AM EST (0900Z)...the eye of Hurricane Ida is located near 20.2 N 85.4 W or 715 miles south of Pensacola. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...some additional strengthening is forecast and Ida could become a category 2 hurricane later today. Movement is toward the northwest near 10 mph...and this general motion is expected to continue. On the forecast track...Ida will pass very near the Yucatan Peninsula today. Minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force Recon is 983 mb/29.03 in.

Ida continue to surprise forecasters despite 20 to 25 kts of shear...Ida continues to show signs of strengthening. ADT is around 4.2 or 69 kts and Dvorake Estimates are 4.0 or 65 kts...while the MIMIC-IR was showing winds of 82 kts...and with the Recon flight currently in Ida...the highest winds they found was 82 kts...so will go with 80 kts for this forecast. Ida still have a period of time to continue to strengthen and have bumped up the peak intensity to 85 kts within 12 hours. As Ida moves into the Gulf of Mexico...shear is expected to increase to as high as 50 kts and water temperatures will drop...so I do have Ida maintaining it/s strength before weakening in the 48 to 72 hour range. Ida will turn extratropical between days 3 and 4 and will be absorbed by a front by day 5.

Initial motion is 325/9 kts...Ida have moved more to the left of the forecast track during the past 6 hours and overall this shift leftward is reflected in the current forecast track...hence hurricane warnings being posted for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. Ida is currently being steered by a mid-level ridge and this will be the steering factor for Ida during the next 24 to 48 hours. Beyond 48 hours...a models go all over the place from the southeast movement to the northeast across Florida and portions of the southeast before moving into the Atlantic. There is more of a east-southeast motion toward the end of the forecast period as a mid-level trough will become the steering factor for Ida. Ida at this time and according to my forecast track will move inland near Pensacola in about 54 to 60 hours whether it will be a tropical or extratropical system remains to be seen as to how further watches/warnings will be handled. Forecast track is close to NHCs for the short term...then my track moves Ida inland while NHCs show a more pronounced motion to the southeast in time. So all areas from Alabama to the Florida Peninsula need to monitor the progress of Ida.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

08/09Z 20.2 N 85.4 W 80 kts

08/21Z 21.8 N 86.9 W 85 kts

09/09Z 24.0 N 88.4 W 85 kts

09/21Z 26.7 N 89.1 W 85 kts

10/09Z 29.4 N 88.9 W 80 kts

11/09Z 32.0 N 84.0 W 45 kts...inland/extratropical

12/09Z 31.5 N 78.0 W 20 kts...extratropical

13/09Z Absorbed by front

JACKSON

0730Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST #6
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
2:31 AM EST SUNDAY NOVEMBER 8, 2009

Hurricane Warnings are now issued for the Yucatan Peninsula from Playa del Carmen to Cabo Catoche. Hurricane warnings mean that hurricane conditions are expected...generally within 24 hours.

Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Playa del Carmen. Hurricane watch mean that hurricane conditions are possible...generally within 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Allen to San Felipe.

Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the Grand Cayman Islands and for the Cuban Providence of Pinar del Rio. Tropical storm warnings mean that tropical storm conditions are expected...generally within 24 hours.

Tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Isle of Youth. Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

At 2:30 AM EST (0730Z)...the center of Hurricane Ida is located near 20.6 N 84.8 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...additional strengthening is possible and Ida could become a category 2 hurricane. Movement is toward the northwest near 10 mph...and this general motion is expected within the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...Ida will move near the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Minimum central pressure as reported by Recon Aircraft is 983 mb/29.03 in.

This update is for hurricane warnings being posted for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. Will have a complete discussion and forecast position and intensity around 09Z.

JACKSON

0300Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST #5

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

9:48 PM EST SATURDAY NOVEMBER 7, 2009

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Grand Cayman Islands and on the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Allen to San Felipe.

Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for Cuban Providence of Pinar del Rio. Tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected...generally within 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Isle of Youth. Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

At 10 PM EST (0300Z)...the center of Hurricane Ida is located near 19.5 N 84.6 W or 775 miles south-southeast of Pensacola. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...some additional strengthening is possible on Sunday. Movement is toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and this motion is expected to continue through the next 24 hours. Estimated minimum central is 987 mb/29.15 in.

Ida have continued to become better organized and while NHC have "officially" kept Ida as a tropical storm...ADT numbers are 3.8 or around 63 kts and the latest MIMIC-IR estimated winds as high as 71 kts...therefore I have decided to upgrade Ida to a 65 kt hurricane. Despite moderate shear near the storm...it is not enough to cause Ida to weaken...so I/m expecting Ida to continue to gradually strengthen through48 hours before much higher shear and cooler water temperatures cause Ida to weaken. Ida will become an extratropical system while crossing the Florida Peninsula in 3 days and get absorbed by a front in about 5 days.

Initial motion 345/10 kts. Ida continues to be influenced by a mid level high and models are in fair agreement of the track of Ida through 72 hours. Beyond 72 hours...a mid level trough will begin to influence Ida/s movement and a turn to the northeast will be expected. Forecast models differ greatly as to where will Ida go while some models take Ida across the Florida Peninsula and into the Atlantic and other models take Ida close to the Florida Peninsula and move to the southeast until Ida is absorbed by the front. For now...I/m continuing with my previous forecast track moving across the Florida Peninsula before getting absorbed by the front in 5 days.

Note: Again...NHC "officially" have kept Ida as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds...however upon my analysis as discussed above I have decided to upgrade Ida to a hurricane so there is no confusion as to the official status of Ida.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

08/03Z 19.5 N 84.6 W 65 kts

08/15Z 21.3 N 85.7 W 70 kts

09/03Z 23.2 N 87.2 W 75 kts

09/15Z 25.6 N 88.3 W 75 kts

10/03Z 28.3 N 88.5 W 80 kts

11/03Z 32.0 N 84.5 W 55 kts...inland

12/03Z 32.5 N 76.0 W 25 kts...extratropical

13/03Z Absorbed by front

JACKSON

2100Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST #4

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

3:45 PM EST SATURDAY NOVEMBER 7, 2009

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Grand Cayman Island...the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Allen to San Felipe.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cuban Providence of Pinar del Rio. Tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected...generally within 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Isle of Youth. Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

At 4 PM EST (2100Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Ida is located near 18.4 N 84.2 W or 785 miles south of Apalachicola, FL. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...and some strengthening is possible and Ida could again become a hurricane later today. Motion is to the north at 10 mph and this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the north-northwest later today...then a turn to the northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track...Ida will likely move between Cuba and the Yucatan tonight and enter into the Gulf of Mexico early Sunday. Minimum central pressure recorded by Recon is 990 mb/29.23 in.

Ida have once again surprised forecasters...despite wind shear in excess of 20 kts...Ida have continued to become better organized. Dvorak Estimates at 1745Z were T3.5...since then Ida have continued to gather some strength...but not quite a hurricane yet so will put the initial intensity at 60 kts. Not much will be needed for Ida to become a hurricane...and my intensity forecast do show Ida becoming a hurricane in about 12 hours or less. I have also increased the peak winds of Ida to 80 kts as she crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. After Ida cross into the Gulf...wind shear is expected to increase to around 50 to as high as 60 kts and this will likely shear Ida apart and weakening will then be forecast through the remainder of the forecast period and in about 4 days after Ida crosses the Florida Peninsula...Ida will become extratropical.

Initial motion 355/9 kts. Ida continues to move northward with the influence of a mid-level high. Ida will begin to move to the north-northwest in time and this is in agreement of most of the short term model runs. Difficulty in the forecast comes around the 72 hour timeframe where an mid-level trough will come into play. The models seem to split on where the track of Ida will go. Some of the models move Ida eastward across the Florida Peninsula and into the Atlantic...other models pull Ida east...then southeast and not affect any land areas during the forecast period. Other models show Ida merging with a front and then moving through the Florida Peninsula. My forecast will more reflect the early scenario and move Ida across the Florida Peninsula in about 3 days and move well north of Bermuda by the end of the forecast period. Therefore because of the uncertainites of the forecast...areas along the Gulf Coast from Alabama to Florida need to monitor the progress of Ida.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

07/21Z 18.4 N 84.2 W 60 kts

08/09Z 20.0 N 85.1 W 75 kts

08/21Z 21.7 N 86.3 W 80 kts

09/09Z 23.7 N 87.5 W 80 kts

09/21Z 26.2 N 88.1 W 80 kts

10/21Z 30.5 N 85.5 W 65 kts...inland

11/21Z 32.5 N 77.5 W 40 kts...extratropical

12/21Z 34.0 N 67.5 W 40 kts...extratropical

JACKSON

0300Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST # 3

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

10:20 PM EST FRIDAY NOVEMBER 6, 2009

At 10 PM EST (0300Z)...the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located near 16.1 N 84.0 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...some strengthening is possible and Ida could become a tropical storm again on Saturday. Motion is toward the north at 7 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the north-northwest on Saturday and then a turn to the northeast early next week. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb/29.71 in.

Ida have been over the warm waters of the Caribbean for most of the afternoon and evening hours and slowly have been reorganizing. Ida will be kept at 30 kts for this update...but is close to reaching tropical storm strength and forecast that it will within the next 24 hours. After about 48 hours of some modest strengthening...Ida will move into 50 to 60 kts of shear and this will cause Ida to weaken and become extratropical while crossing southern Florida towards the end of the forecast period.

Initial motion 360/6 kts. Ida will continue to move on a north to north-northwest motion in influence of a mid-level high. Afterwards expecting for Ida to basically move to the northeast and then southeast through the remainder of the forecast period as Ida becomes extratropical and merges with a frontal system...however what/s left of Ida before becoming extratropical could affect southern Florida by the end of the forecast period.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

07/03Z 16.1 N 84.0 W 30 kts

07/15Z 17.3 N 84.3 W 30 kts

08/03Z 18.6 N 84.8 W 35 kts

08/15Z 19.9 N 85.5 W 40 kts

09/03Z 21.2 N 86.4 W 45 kts

10/03Z 24.0 N 87.0 W 40 kts

11/03Z 26.0 N 84.5 W 40 kts...becoming extratropical

12/03Z 25.5 N 80.0 W 30 kts...extratropical

JACKSON

1800Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
12:31 PM EST FRIDAY NOVEMBER 6, 2009

The Tropical Forecast Center is currently issuing forecasts on Tropical Depression Ida located near 15.1 N 84.0 W and 35 mph winds. Complete update on Ida will come later today.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON

0200Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST #2

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

9:27 PM EST WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 4, 2009

Hurricane Watches remain in effect for the East Coast of Nicaragua from Bluefields to the Honduras border. Hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Warnings remains in the effect for the entire east coast of Nicaragua. Tropical storm warnings mean that tropical storm conditions are expected...generally within 24 hours.

At 9:00 PM EST (0200Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near 12.2 N 83.0 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...little change in strength is expected prior to landfall...weakening is expected after landfall. Movement is toward the west-northwest near 7 mph...and this general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected. On the forecast track...Ida will make landfall over Eastern Nicaragua on Thursday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb/29.38 in.

Ida have been on a mini rapid intensification cycle during the day and even now...Ida have been showing an eye like feature on satellite. Dvorak and ADT Estimates is only 3.0 however the reports from the Aircraft Recon have been showing winds in excess of 55 kts and this will remain the initial intensity. Ida do have a small window to possibly become a hurricane though this is unlikely. Once Ida makes landfall...she will weaken rapidly and there is a chance that she will not survive the mountainous region...currently I do have for the intensity forecast that she will survive and move back over the water in about 72 hours for a short time before making a second landfall in 96 hours. By day 5...Ida will move back over the water and with warm SSTs...Ida will have an opportunity to restrengthen.

Initial motion 305/6 kts. Steering currents are expected to remain weak over the southwest Caribbean Sea for the next few days. The forecast track was a bit difficult to pinpoint though I feel fairly confident in the short term forecast. Beyond 48 hours...is where forecast track differs between my forecast and NHCs as overall my track is further west and faster. The main feature will be the possible formation of a extra or sub tropical low along the remnants of an old front. If this scenario plays out...then Ida will be forced to the northwest or north in time. My forecast track plays into this scenario and Ida will emerge over the Gulf of Mexico in 5 days.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

05/02Z 12.2 N 83.0 W 55 kts

05/14Z 13.1 N 83.8 W 50 kts...inland

06/02Z 14.1 N 84.8 W 35 kts...inland

06/14Z 15.1 N 85.8 W 30 kts...inland

07/02Z 16.3 N 86.5 W 30 kts...over water

08/02Z 18.5 N 87.5 W 40 kts

09/02Z 20.5 N 89.0 W 30 kts...inland

10/02Z 23.0 N 89.5 W 35 kts

JACKSON

2100Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
3:29 PM EST WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 4, 2009

Tropical Forecast Center are issuing updates on now Tropical Storm Ida...located near 11.8 N 82.3 W and 50 mph winds. A complete update on Ida including graphics and how strong could she get around 02Z.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1500Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL UPDATE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 FORECAST #1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
10:15 AM EST WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 4, 2009

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Islands of San Andres and Providencia by the Colombian Government.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the East Coast of Nicaragua by their Government. A tropical storm warning mean that tropical storm conditions are expected...generally within 24 hours.

At 10 AM EST (1500Z)...the center of newly developed Tropical Depression 11 is located near 11.6 N 82.0 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Movement is toward the northwest at 8 mph and this motion is expected to decrease this afternoon. On the forecast track...the depression will cross into Nicaragua by late tonight or on Thursday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb/29.71 in.

Area of low pressure that I have been monitoring for the past day or so have developed enough thunderstorms to be classified as a tropical depression. Recent satellite pictures are showing a new batch of thunderstorms developing near the center so this could push this depression into tropical storm strength actually within the next few hours. Air Force Recon will be investigating this system later this afternoon to see if we indeed have Ida on our hands. Initial intensity is at 30 kts...representative of the Dvorak Estimates around 2.0. With the closeness to land...the intensity forecast is a little tricky. SHIPs as in previous model runs show very little intensification and while GFDL show the storm becoming a hurricane. While the latter scenario is possible...the proximity to land will make it difficult so I/m expecting the depression to make to around 40 or 45 kts before moving over Nicaragua in about 18 to 24 hours or so and weakening before possibly crossing into the Yucatan Peninsula where if not disrupted should regain tropcial storm status.

Initial motion is 315/7 kts. Steering currents is rather weak so fully expecting that this storm will slow down or even stall later this afternoon. Forecast is rather complex on the tracking of the depression as there are several different scenarios that can play out. The first is a possible developing system in the Eastern Pacific...if this system develop quickly...then the depression could be absorbed into the system or have its circulation basically ripped apart. The second is the remnants of a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models show an area of low pressure developing along this front later in the week...which could steer the depression north...possibly into the Gulf of Mexico. Right now...will follow close the NHCs track for now and the system move over Nicaragua and cross back over water by the end of the forecast period.

Note: Graphics and forecast track and intensity will be updated later today.


Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1400Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:56 AM EST WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 4, 2009

Area of low pressure located in the Southwest Caribbean Sea have continued to become better organized and a tropical depression could form later today. An Air Force Recon Airplane will investigate this system later today. Heavy rains and life threatening mudslides will be possible for Honduras...Belize...and Costa Rica over the next day or so as this low moves very little.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.


Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0100Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

8:23 PM EST TUESDAY NOVEMBER 3, 2009

Area of low pressure located east of Costa Rica continues to become better organized and signs are showing that a tropical depression could be starting to form. If thunderstorms can continue to build around the center and persist...then forecasts could be initiated by Wednesday Afternoon or Evening. An Air Force Recon Airplane is expected to investigate the low tomorrow. Regardless of development...heavy rains and life-threatening mudslides will be possible over portions of Central America over the next few days.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1800Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
12:37 PM EST TUESDAY NOVEMBER 3, 2009

Area of low pressure located east of Costa Rica have become better organized during the past few hours and conditions appear favorable for further development over the next day or so and could become a tropical depression at that time. The low is expected to move very little during the next few days and could bring heavy rains to portions of Central America and could produce life-threatening mudslides to the region. Areas from Central America to the Yucatan...Western Cuba and the Gulf Coast States need to monitor the progress of this area of low pressure over the course of the next week. Updated satellites will be posted later today.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected to develop within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1400Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

8:47 AM EST TUESDAY NOVEMEBER 3, 2009

Area of low pressure developed east of Costa Rica. While thunderstorm development is limited...upper level winds are favorable for continued development over the next few days as this low moves very little.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0400Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

11:22 PM EST SUNDAY NOVEMBER 1, 2009

Non-tropical low located about 400 miles east of Bermuda continues to become better organized and the low could be acquiring sub-tropical or tropical characteristics...however this low is still associated with a frontal system...but the front is pulling away from the low. Once this low becomes separated from the front...this system will likely become a subtropical or tropical system within the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1600Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

10:57 AM EST SUNDAY NOVEMBER 1, 2009

Non-tropical low located about 680 miles east of Bermuda could slowly be acquiring sub-tropical characteristics. Additional development will be possible over the next few days as the low moves to the west-northwest to northwest.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist