1500Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX UPDATE #8
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
10:41 AM EDT SUNDAY JUNE 27, 2010

At 10 AM CDT...the center of Tropical Depression Alex was located near 18.7 N 90.6 W or 85 miles south of Campeche Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph. Some additional weakening is expected while Alex is inland...but will regain strength once Alex reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Motion is towards the west-northwest near 13 mph. On the current track...Alex will move into the Gulf of Mexico later today. Minimum central pressure is 1000 mb/29.53 in.

Alex continues his trek across the Yucatan and bringing heavy rains to the area. The forecast track is similar to NHCs forecast track...though towards the end of the forecast period my forecast track is a bit to the right of NHCs track. An upper level ridge is expected to develop over the central part of the U.S. Depending on the strength of this ridge will determine whether Alex will move further to the north or turn to the west in time. I believe that this ridge will be strong enough to turn Alex on a more westerly track in about 3 to 4 days making an Mexican landfall in about 96 hours...however areas along the Texas and Louisiana coast still need to monitor the progress of Alex.

With Alex being inland...it/s easy to say that he is going to weaken and with cloud tops warming...Alex has indeed weaken and is now a depression with 30 kt winds. Alex will move into an environment that will favor strengthening once he moves into the Gulf of Mexico tonight. I am expecting that Alex will reach hurricane strength in about 48 to 72 hours before making his final landfall. Some of the models show that Alex could be a category 2 hurricane at landfall...right now not seeing that as much of a possibility at this time and not going with anything stronger than 70 kts. Once Alex makes landfall...he will weaken rather rapidly but will be a heavy rain producer.

Forecast positions and intensity

27/15Z 18.7 N 90.6 W 30 kts
28/03Z 19.5 N 91.7 W 30 kts...over water
28/15Z 20.3 N 92.9 W 35 kts
29/03Z 21.1 N 93.9 W 40 kts
29/15Z 21.4 N 94.9 W 55 kts
30/15Z 22.5 N 97.0 W 70 kts
01/15Z 23.5 N 98.0 W 65 kts...inland
02/15Z 25.0 N 98.5 W 30 kts...inland

JACKSON