0300Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL STORM ALEX UPDATE # 10
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
10:30 PM EDT SUNDAY JUNE 27, 2010

AT 11:00 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4 N 91.3 W OR ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO. ALEX IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. THIS MOTION WILL MOVE MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AT AN EVEN SLOWER SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND ALEX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB/29.26 IN.

THE CENTER OF ALEX HAS NOW EMERGED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HAVE QUICKLY REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPLODED AROUND THE CENTER AND WITH A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER TEMPERATURES...ALEX WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND ALEX WILL LIKELY BE A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MY INTENSITY FORECAST PUTS ALEX AS A WEAK CATEGORY 2 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ALEX COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IF ALEX REMAINS OVER THE WATER FOR A LONGER PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION 300/8. ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AT ABOUT THIS PACE OR A LITTLE SLOWER DURING THE SHORT TERM. THEN THAT/S WHEN THINGS GET INTERESTING...MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE DETERMINING THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE. RIGHT NOW CURRENT THINKING THAT THIS RIDGE SHOULD STAY STRONG ENOUGH THAT ALEX WILL BE PULLED TOWARDS MEXICO AND MAKE A MEXICAN LANDFALL IN 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...I HAVE MOVED MY FORECAST TRACK NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AS MOST OF THE MODELS DO SHOW ALEX MOVING MORE AND MORE NORTH WITH EACH PASSING RUN. SO AREAS FROM TEXAS TO LOUISIANA NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALEX.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY

28/03Z 19.4 N 91.3 W 40 KTS
28/15Z 20.2 N 92.4 W 40 KTS
29/03Z 21.0 N 93.4 W 50 KTS
29/15Z 21.7 N 94.4 W 60 KTS
30/03Z 22.5 N 95.4 W 70 KTS
01/03Z 22.5 N 97.0 W 85 KTS
02/03Z 24.0 N 98.0 W 50 KTS...INLAND
03/03Z 28.0 N 97.5 W 30 KTS...INLAND

JACKSON