0300Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL STORM ALEX UPDATE # 10
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
10:30 PM EDT SUNDAY JUNE 27, 2010

AT 11:00 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4 N 91.3 W OR ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO. ALEX IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. THIS MOTION WILL MOVE MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AT AN EVEN SLOWER SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND ALEX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB/29.26 IN.

THE CENTER OF ALEX HAS NOW EMERGED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HAVE QUICKLY REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPLODED AROUND THE CENTER AND WITH A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER TEMPERATURES...ALEX WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND ALEX WILL LIKELY BE A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MY INTENSITY FORECAST PUTS ALEX AS A WEAK CATEGORY 2 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ALEX COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IF ALEX REMAINS OVER THE WATER FOR A LONGER PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION 300/8. ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AT ABOUT THIS PACE OR A LITTLE SLOWER DURING THE SHORT TERM. THEN THAT/S WHEN THINGS GET INTERESTING...MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE DETERMINING THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE. RIGHT NOW CURRENT THINKING THAT THIS RIDGE SHOULD STAY STRONG ENOUGH THAT ALEX WILL BE PULLED TOWARDS MEXICO AND MAKE A MEXICAN LANDFALL IN 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...I HAVE MOVED MY FORECAST TRACK NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AS MOST OF THE MODELS DO SHOW ALEX MOVING MORE AND MORE NORTH WITH EACH PASSING RUN. SO AREAS FROM TEXAS TO LOUISIANA NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALEX.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY

28/03Z 19.4 N 91.3 W 40 KTS
28/15Z 20.2 N 92.4 W 40 KTS
29/03Z 21.0 N 93.4 W 50 KTS
29/15Z 21.7 N 94.4 W 60 KTS
30/03Z 22.5 N 95.4 W 70 KTS
01/03Z 22.5 N 97.0 W 85 KTS
02/03Z 24.0 N 98.0 W 50 KTS...INLAND
03/03Z 28.0 N 97.5 W 30 KTS...INLAND

JACKSON

1500Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX UPDATE #8
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
10:41 AM EDT SUNDAY JUNE 27, 2010

At 10 AM CDT...the center of Tropical Depression Alex was located near 18.7 N 90.6 W or 85 miles south of Campeche Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph. Some additional weakening is expected while Alex is inland...but will regain strength once Alex reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Motion is towards the west-northwest near 13 mph. On the current track...Alex will move into the Gulf of Mexico later today. Minimum central pressure is 1000 mb/29.53 in.

Alex continues his trek across the Yucatan and bringing heavy rains to the area. The forecast track is similar to NHCs forecast track...though towards the end of the forecast period my forecast track is a bit to the right of NHCs track. An upper level ridge is expected to develop over the central part of the U.S. Depending on the strength of this ridge will determine whether Alex will move further to the north or turn to the west in time. I believe that this ridge will be strong enough to turn Alex on a more westerly track in about 3 to 4 days making an Mexican landfall in about 96 hours...however areas along the Texas and Louisiana coast still need to monitor the progress of Alex.

With Alex being inland...it/s easy to say that he is going to weaken and with cloud tops warming...Alex has indeed weaken and is now a depression with 30 kt winds. Alex will move into an environment that will favor strengthening once he moves into the Gulf of Mexico tonight. I am expecting that Alex will reach hurricane strength in about 48 to 72 hours before making his final landfall. Some of the models show that Alex could be a category 2 hurricane at landfall...right now not seeing that as much of a possibility at this time and not going with anything stronger than 70 kts. Once Alex makes landfall...he will weaken rather rapidly but will be a heavy rain producer.

Forecast positions and intensity

27/15Z 18.7 N 90.6 W 30 kts
28/03Z 19.5 N 91.7 W 30 kts...over water
28/15Z 20.3 N 92.9 W 35 kts
29/03Z 21.1 N 93.9 W 40 kts
29/15Z 21.4 N 94.9 W 55 kts
30/15Z 22.5 N 97.0 W 70 kts
01/15Z 23.5 N 98.0 W 65 kts...inland
02/15Z 25.0 N 98.5 W 30 kts...inland

JACKSON

1200Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:12 AM EDT FRIDAY JUNE 25, 2010

Area of low pressure in the western Caribbean continues to show signs of organization and a tropical depression may be forming. This low is drifting to the southwest but a northwest or a west-northwest motion is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours. Air Force Recon Aircraft is expected to investigate this system later today to see if a depression has formed.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected within the next 24 hours.

JACKSON

1200Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
7:51 AM EDT WEDNESDAY JUNE 23, 2010

Area of showers and thunderstorms located in the Central Caribbean have increased some during the past few hours. Upper level winds are favorable for some slow development over the next few days as this wave moves to the west around 10 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON

1300Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:31 AM EDT MONDAY JUNE 14, 2010

Area of low pressure located 1425 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is continuing to show signs of organization and a tropical depression could be forming. If signs continue to show organization...then updates could be initated later today or Tuesday as this low moves to the west-northwest to northwest at around 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON

1800Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
1:36 PM EDT SUNDAY JUNE 13, 2010

Area of low pressure located about 850 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands is producing showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are favorable for some development over the next few days as this system moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON

1300Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:55 AM EDT FRIDAY JUNE 4, 2010

Tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON

1500Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:15 AM EDT WEDNESDAY JUNE 2, 2010

Tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON

1300Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:52 AM EDT TUESDAY JUNE 1, 2010

Area of showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula associated with the remnants of Agatha. Upper level winds right now are not favorable for development as this area moves very little over the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON