0300Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Grace

At 11:00 PM EDT (0300Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Grace is located near 41.2 N 20.3 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...some slight strengthening is possible in the short term...followed by rapid weakening and this storm will be absorbed by a larger extratropical system in about 36 to 48 hours. Movement is toward the east-northeast at 25 mph and this motion is expected to continue. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb/29.23 in.

Grace have developed pretty rapidly within the past few hours despite sea surface temperatures of around 20 to 21 C. The system that became Grace developed off an area of low pressure that moved close to the Azores Islands several days ago and did a loop while maintaining its structure. The system have since become more tropical in nature and on satellite there is a distinct eye feature...so updates have begun on this system. Grace will be a fairly short lived system especially being in very cool waters of the North Atlantic. This system will rapidly weaken in about 12 to 18 hours and will be absorbed by a larger extratropical system in about 36 to 48 hours...though there is a small chance that Grace with the eye feature could very briefly become a hurricane possibly in between updates.

Grace is moving 075/22 kts. This motion will generally continue until the system is absorbed within the next 2 days or so.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

05/03Z 41.2 N 20.3 W 55 kts

05/15Z 43.2 N 17.4 W 60 kts

06/03Z 46.6 N 14.5 W 50 kts

06/15Z 49.2 N 11.0 W 30 kts

07/03Z Absorbed

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist