0100Z Tropical Outlook

Tropical storm development is not expected within 36 hours.

This will be the last tropical outlook for the 2009 season unless there is a system with a moderate chance of developing or higher. The next official update will be on June 1, 2010.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0100Z Tropical Outlook

Area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the Southwest Caribbean is nearly stationary and development if any will be slow to occur. Regardless of development...expect heavy rain over areas of Central America over the next few days.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected over the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Outlook

Tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0200Z Tropical Outlook

Tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0100Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Henri

At 9:00 PM EDT (0100Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Henri is located 19.6 N 59.1 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...weakening is forecast and Henri could become a remnant low on Thursday. Movement is toward the west-northwest at 15 mph...this motion is expected to continue with a gradual motion to the west on Thursday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb/29.77 in.

Henri/s center is once again exposed to the strong upper level winds and the weakening trend continues and even the ADT suggests that Henri is a depression...but for now...will keep the initial intensity at 35 kts. Henri will continue to move through a hostile environment over the next 24 to 48 hours and will cause his demise during this time frame.

Initial motion is 285/13 kts. Henri will continue to move on a west-northwest motion for the first 24 hours followed by a motion to the west-southwest before dissipating.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

08/01Z 19.6 N 59.1 W 35 kts

08/13Z 20.3 N 61.1 W 30 kts

09/01Z 21.0 N 62.5 W 30 kts...remnant low

09/13Z 20.9 N 64.1 W 20 kts...remnant low

10/01Z Dissipated

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0000Z Tropical Outlook

The Tropical Forecast Center is issuing forecasts on Tropical Storm Henri...located near 19.6 N 59.1 W and 40 mph winds.

A tropical wave located about 700 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands continue to produce showers and thunderstorms and development will be slow to occur as the wave moves to the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Outlook

The Tropical Forecast Center is issuing forecasts on Tropical Storm Henri located near 18.3 N 56.6 W and 50 mph winds.

Tropical wave located about 900 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of the system is possible as the wave moves to the west-northwest at 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Outlook

Tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0200Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Grace

At 10:00 PM EDT (0200Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Grace is located near 48.2 N 13.4 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph and weakening is expected until Grace is absorbed in 12 hours. Movement is toward the north-northeast at 26 mph and this motion is expected to continue. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb/29.29 in.

Despite continuing to move in water temperatures of 17 to 18 C...Grace is still looks like a tropical system...but Grace will not last much longer as the non-tropical system is approaching Grace and will be absorbed by the larger system within the next 12 hours. Initial motion is 025/23 kts and this motion is expected to continue until the system is absorbed.

With Grace in the process of becoming a non tropical system...this will be the last update on this system.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

06/02Z 48.2 N 13.4 W 45 kts

06/14Z 51.0 N 10.5 W 30 kts

07/02Z Absorbed by non-tropical system

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0200Z Tropical Outlook

The Tropical Forecast Center is issuing forecasts on Tropical Storm Grace located near 48.2 N and 13.4 W and 50 mph winds.

Broad area of low pressure located about 840 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have become slightly better organized and have a chance of becoming a depression within the next 36 to 48 hours as the low moves to the west-northwest at 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Grace

At 9:00 AM EDT (1300Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Grace is located near 44.0 N 17.2 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...weakening is expected and Grace will be absorbed by a larger non-tropical system by tonight or Tuesday. Movement is to the northeast at 31 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb/29.23 in.

Grace despite moving into 20 C sea surface temperatures is looking well organized as. While ADT numbers suggest that winds could now be as low as 45 kts...Grace is still showing a eye like feature on satellite...there have kept winds at 55 kts. Grace will not be around much longer as she will not be able to maintain herself as she continues to move into even further cooler water temperatures...and she will easily be absorbed by a larger non-tropical system within the next 36 hours. Initial motion is 035/27 kts. I/m fully expecting that this motion will continue with some decrease in forward speed until Grace is absorbed.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

05/13Z 44.0 N 17.2 W 55 kts
06/01Z 47.6 N 14.7 W 45 kts
06/13Z 50.1 N 10.9 W 30 kts
07/01Z Absorbed by non-tropical low

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Outlook

Tropical Forecast Center is issuing forecasts on Tropical Storm Grace located as of 0900Z near 43.0 N 18.0 W and 70 mph winds.

Tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Slow development of this system is possible over the next several days as the wave moves to the west at 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected during the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0300Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Grace

At 11:00 PM EDT (0300Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Grace is located near 41.2 N 20.3 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...some slight strengthening is possible in the short term...followed by rapid weakening and this storm will be absorbed by a larger extratropical system in about 36 to 48 hours. Movement is toward the east-northeast at 25 mph and this motion is expected to continue. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb/29.23 in.

Grace have developed pretty rapidly within the past few hours despite sea surface temperatures of around 20 to 21 C. The system that became Grace developed off an area of low pressure that moved close to the Azores Islands several days ago and did a loop while maintaining its structure. The system have since become more tropical in nature and on satellite there is a distinct eye feature...so updates have begun on this system. Grace will be a fairly short lived system especially being in very cool waters of the North Atlantic. This system will rapidly weaken in about 12 to 18 hours and will be absorbed by a larger extratropical system in about 36 to 48 hours...though there is a small chance that Grace with the eye feature could very briefly become a hurricane possibly in between updates.

Grace is moving 075/22 kts. This motion will generally continue until the system is absorbed within the next 2 days or so.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

05/03Z 41.2 N 20.3 W 55 kts

05/15Z 43.2 N 17.4 W 60 kts

06/03Z 46.6 N 14.5 W 50 kts

06/15Z 49.2 N 11.0 W 30 kts

07/03Z Absorbed

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0300Z Tropical Outlook

The Tropical Forecast Center is now issuing forecast on recently named Tropical Storm Grace in the far North Atlantic located near 41.2 N 20.3 W and 65 mph winds.

Broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located about 1150 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this low is possible during the next few days as the low moves to the west at 15 to 20 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0300Z Tropical Outlook

Tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Outlook

Tropical wave located about 640 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not favorable for development as the wave moves to the west at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Outlook

Tropical storm development not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist