Tropical Forecast Center

03Z Tropical Update-Igor

2010-09-12T23:24:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE IGOR FORECAST 5
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:09 PM EDT SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2010

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6 N 47.8 W OR 1005 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IGOR WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH. IGOR IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IGOR COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON MONDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB/27.61 IN.

IGOR IS NOW THE STRONGEST HURRICANE ACCORDING TO WIND SPEED IN SEVERAL YEARS. IGOR CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 6.5/6.5 AND ADT OF 6.6 THEREFORE IGOR HAS INCREASED FURTHER TO 130 KTS. IGOR IS CLOSE TO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE STRENGTH. I/M FORECASTING FOR IGOR TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS THEN IGOR WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IGOR WILL GO THROUGH EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...BUT IGOR WILL REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION 270/11 KTS. FORECASTING THINKING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IGOR WILL FOLLOW THE RIDGE AND IGOR WILL MOVE TO THE WEST AND THEN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST TRACK CURRENTLY WILL TAKE IGOR NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IT IS VERY CLOSE TO NHC FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

13/03Z 17.6 N 47.8 W 130 KTS
13/15Z 18.0 N 49.4 W 140 KTS
14/03Z 18.5 N 51.3 W 135 KTS
14/15Z 19.2 N 53.0 W 135 KTS
15/03Z 20.1 N 54.5 W 130 KTS
16/03Z 22.5 N 57.5 W 125 KTS
17/03Z 24.5 N 61.0 W 115 KTS
18/03Z 27.0 N 64.0 W 105 KTS

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update-Julia

2010-09-12T23:03:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED 13.5 N 23.5 W OR 110 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. JULIA WAS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH AND STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND JULIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB/29.65 IN.

JULIA IS CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ESTIMATES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND 35 KTS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE EASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTING JULIA WILL WEAKEN AND THIS WILL GIVE JULIA A CHANCE TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND JULIA WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AND JULIA WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10 KTS. JULIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEER BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST THINKING REMAINS THE SAME WITH A NUDGE TO THE WEST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND MY FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NHC FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

13/03Z 13.5 N 23.5 W 35 KTS
13/15Z 14.4 N 25.2 W 45 KTS
14/03Z 15.8 N 27.5 W 55 KTS
14/15Z 17.4 N 29.7 W 65 KTS
15/03Z 19.2 N 31.6 W 70 KTS
16/03Z 22.5 N 35.5 W 75 KTS
17/03Z 25.5 N 38.5 W 75 KTS
18/03Z 28.5 N 43.5 W 65 KTS

JACKSON

19Z Tropical Update

2010-09-12T14:57:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE IGOR SPECIAL FORECAST 4
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
2:48 PM EDT SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2010

AT 2:30 PM EDT/1830Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7 N 46.1 W OR 1120 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IGOR WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 135 MPH. IGOR IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CONTINUED STRENGHTENING IS FORECAST AND IGOR COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR MONDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB/28.05 IN.

THIS A SPECIAL UPDATE TO INCREASE THE WINDS OF EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IGOR...NOW WITH WINDS OF 115 KTS. CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND IGOR COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE.

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update-TD 12

2010-09-12T11:54:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 FORECAST 1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:37 AM EDT SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO..SAO TIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7 N 21.4 W OR 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN A FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH AND THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB/29.71 IN.

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF AFRICA A FEW DAYS AGO HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND FORECASTS HAVE BEGUN ON THE 12TH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON. SHEAR IS AROUND 10 KTS AND SHOULD LESSEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS WHEN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.

INITIAL MOTION 275/12 KTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING THE DEPRESSION WELL AWAY FROM ANY LAND AREAS AND MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST TRACK IS NORTHEAST OF NHC FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12/15Z 12.7 N 21.4 W 30 KTS
13/03Z 13.3 N 23.1 W 40 KTS
13/15Z 14.5 N 25.5 W 50 KTS
14/03Z 16.0 N 27.8 W 60 KTS
14/15Z 17.6 N 29.8 W 65 KTS
15/15Z 21.5 N 33.0 W 75 KTS
16/15Z 25.5 N 36.5 W 70 KTS
17/15Z 28.5 N 40.0 W 60 KTS

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update-Igor

2010-09-12T11:31:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE IGOR FORECAST 3
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:10 AM EDT SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7 N 45.7 W OR 1145 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IGOR WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...THE GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED IN A FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH. IGOR IS A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IGOR WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB/28.64 IN.

IGOR IS NOW GOING THROUGH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION CYCLE. ADT NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 5.5 WITH OTHER NUMBERS AROUND 4.5/4.5. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KTS. WITH VERY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND SHEAR BELOW 10 KTS...IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND IGOR COULD COME VERY CLOSE TO CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH WITHIN 72 HOURS BEFORE IGOR GO THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND WILL WEAKEN SOME BUT WILL REMAIN A MAJOR...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION 270/11 KTS. THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE IGOR MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS OF THE TROUGH AND TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS FORECAST TRACK SHOULD KEEP IGOR AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NOW WHETHER IGOR WILL HAVE AN AFFECTS ON THE UNITED STATES OR BERMUDA REMAINS TO BE SEEN...LOOKING AT THE LONGER TERM MODELS A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IGOR OUT TO SEA. FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF NHC FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12/15Z 17.7 N 45.7 W 90 KTS
13/03Z 18.3 N 47.3 W 95 KTS
13/15Z 18.9 N 49.6 W 105 KTS
14/03Z 19.5 N 51.8 W 115 KTS
14/15Z 20.0 N 53.8 W 125 KTS
15/15Z 21.5 N 57.0 W 130 KTS
16/15Z 24.0 N 59.5 W 130 KTS
17/15Z 27.0 N 62.5 W 120 KTS

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update

2010-09-11T11:05:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL STORM IGOR FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 AM EDT SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 11, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4 N 39.5W OR 1470 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IGOR WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...AND THIS MOTION WITH A DECREASE OF FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...AND IGOR STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IGOR WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB/29.38 IN.

DESPITE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN IGOR...AN EYE FEATURE IS SHOWN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND WHILE WE COULD TECHNICALLY CALL IGOR A HURRICANE...DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASE SOMEWHAT...SO WILL KEEP IGOR A 60 KT STRONG TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A BIT OF EASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTING IGOR AND THIS WILL DECREASE AS THE DAY GO ON AND ALL MODELS POINT TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO THE POINT THAT I HAVE IGOR AS A LARGE...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 4 DAYS. NHCS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN MINE...AND I THINK IT WILL BECOME A CATEGORY 4 STORM WITHIN 4 DAYS BECAUSE SHEAR WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND IGOR WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WATERS OF AT LEAST 28 TO 29 C. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IGOR COULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN WHAT I/M FORECASTING ESPECIALLY IF IGOR GOES THROUGH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION CYCLE...WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

INITIAL IS A BIT SLOWER...275/17 KTS. FORECAST TRACK WITH IGOR WILL FOLLOW THE STEERING CURRENTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER TOWARDS DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...A WEAKNESS IN THE TROUGH COULD SLOW DOWN IGOR TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND COULD ACTUALLY MOVE MORE ERRATIC THAN WHAT I/M SHOWING...BUT OVER A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NHCS FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MY FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

11/15Z 17.4 N 39.5 W 60 KTS
12/03Z 17.8 N 41.7 W 65 KTS
12/15Z 18.3 N 44.7 W 75 KTS
13/03Z 18.9 N 47.6 W 85 KTS
13/15Z 19.1 N 50.2 W 90 KTS
14/15Z 19.0 N 54.5 W 110 KTS
15/15Z 19.5 N 56.5 W 115 KTS
16/15Z 22.0 N 58.0 W 115 KTS

JACKSON

14Z Tropical Outlook

2010-09-11T10:13:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
10:08 AM EDT SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 11, 2010

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER ARE ISSUING FORECASTS ON TROPICAL STORM IGOR...LOCATED 915 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 70 MPH WINDS.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST.

STRONG WAVE JUST READY TO MOVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND A DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVING TO THE WEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update

2010-09-08T23:16:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL STORM IGOR FORECAST 1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 8, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8 N 24.6 W OR 70 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IGOR WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...AND STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IGOR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB/29.68 IN.

IGOR IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME SHEAR AND HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE ONLY AT 1.5/1.5 WHICH IS ONLY AT 25 KTS WHILE ADT NUMBERS ARE AT 3.0 OR 45 KTS...SO COMPROMISED AND MAINTAINED THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KTS. WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...IGOR WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHEAR AND WILL BE UNDER 10 KTS OF SHEAR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS STRENGTHENING AND IGOR WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT DO NOT THINK THAT IGOR WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO NHCs.

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6 KTS. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IGOR CONTINUES TO FEEL THE LOW TO ITS NORTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...IGOR MAY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND THIS WILL CAUSE IGOR TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AGAIN. FORECAST TRACK IS THEREFORE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

09/03Z 13.8 N 24.6 W 40 KTS
09/15Z 14.3 N 25.9 W 45 KTS
10/03Z 15.1 N 28.0 W 50 KTS
10/15Z 16.2 N 30.6 W 55 KTS
11/03Z 17.3 N 33.5 W 65 KTS
12/03Z 19.0 N 39.5 W 75 KTS
13/03Z 20.0 N 45.0 W 85 KTS
14/03Z 21.0 N 49.5 W 90 KTS

JACKSON

17Z Tropical Outlook

2010-09-08T12:44:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
12:43 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 8, 2010

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER ARE ISSUING FORECAST FOR RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM IGOR...LOCATED 95 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 40 MPH WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update

2010-09-02T23:11:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 18
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 2, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWESTWARD TO DIGBY...MEDWAY HARBOUR NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND AULDS COVE WESTWARD TO TIDNISH
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8 N 74.4 W OR 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH. EARL IS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB/28.08 IN.

EARL IS STILL ON HIS WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL WERE MEASURED AT 124 MPH...WINDS AT THE SURFACE WERE NO HIGHER THAN 90 KTS SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMPLE...EARL WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WITHIN 36 HOURS...EARL WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 015/16 KTS. EARL AT TIMES HAVE BEEN WOBBLING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT TIMES BUT OVERALL IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH. FORECAST TRACK IS FOR EARL TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A FASTER FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS COURSE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS.

THOUGH EARL IS WEAKENING...THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING SO EFFECTS WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE AREA AS WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO NOVA SCOTIA.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

03/03Z 33.8 N 74.4 W 90 KTS
03/15Z 35.3 N 73.4 W 80 KTS
04/03Z 37.9 N 70.3 W 75 KTS
04/15Z 41.1 N 66.3 W 65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/03Z 45.3 N 61.6 W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
06/03Z DISSIPATED

JACKSON

00Z Tropical Update

2010-09-02T20:09:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE FORECAST 17A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:00 PM EDT THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 2, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER

AT 8:00 PM EDT/0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0 N 74.7 W OR 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING NORTH AT 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH. EARL IS NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND EARL WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 TO 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB/27.99 IN.

COMPLETE UPDATE ON EARL AT 11 PM EDT.

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update

2010-09-02T17:20:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 17
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 2, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5 N 75.2 W OR 185 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER RATE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL COME NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL WILL LIKELY BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN 72 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB/27.96 IN.

EARL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...THE EYE IS NOW FILLED IN AND WINDS ARE NOW DOWN TO 100 KTS. EARL WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HE HEADS TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. EARL IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THE FORECAST POINTS THIS OUT.

INITIAL IS DUE NORTH AT 16 KTS. EARL HAVE MADE THE DUE NORTH TURN. NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL IT BE UNTIL EARL BEGINS TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST TRACK REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED AND THINKING THAT THE NORTHEAST TURN WILL HAPPEN IN 10 TO 12 HOURS COMING NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND THE OUTER BANKS BEFORE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST.

DO NOT FOCUS ON THE HURRICANE CENTER AS EARL IS A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM AND ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE AREA.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

02/21Z 32.5 N 75.2 W 100 KTS
03/09Z 34.0 N 74.7 W 100 KTS
03/21Z 36.4 N 72.5 W 95 KTS
04/09Z 39.2 N 68.8 W 80 KTS
04/21Z 43.1 N 64.4 W 65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/21Z 51.0 N 55.0 W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL/DISSIPATING

JACKSON

18Z Tropical Update

2010-09-02T14:13:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE FORECAST 16A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
2:05 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 2, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE.
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER.

AT 2:00 PM EDT/1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7 N 75.2 W OR 245 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS BY TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 125 MPH. EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB/27.85 IN.

COMPLETE DETAILS AT 5 PM EDT.

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update

2010-09-02T11:28:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 16
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:13 AM EDT THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 2, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9 N 74.8 W OR 300 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 18 MPH...ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH. EARL REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...AND EARL WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY FRIDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB/27.52 IN.

EARL EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AND NOW IS STARTING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE AT 120 KTS. FORECAST IS FOR EARL TO AT FIRST SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT AS EARL MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS AND HIGHER SHEAR...EARL WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS. EARL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 48 HOURS AND COMPLETE THE TRANSITION IN 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THE FORECAST SHOWS THIS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 355/16 KTS. EARL IS BEGINNING TO MOVE MORE AND MORE TO THE NORTH. THE KEY LONGITUDE IS 75W. AS LONG AS EARL DO NOT CROSS MUCH PAST 75W...THE CORE OF EARL WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND EFFECTS WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE AREA. EARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF CAPE COD MAY SEE A DIRECT HIT FROM EARL BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH PROMPTED HURRICANE WARNINGS TO GO UP. ALL AREA ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
02/15Z 30.9 N 74.8 W 120 KTS
03/03Z 32.8 N 75.0 W 115 KTS
03/15Z 33.9 N 73.9 W 105 KTS
04/03Z 38.4 N 70.9 W 95 KTS
04/15Z 42.0 N 66.5 W 75 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/15Z 50.5 N 57.0 W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update

2010-09-01T23:33:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 15
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:07 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 1, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8 N 73.8 W OR 520 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF EARL WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASSING NEAR OF OVER THE OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 140 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 932 MB/27.52 IN.

NOAA RECON FLIGHT DURING THE INVESTIGATION OF EARL FOUND A WIND SPEED OF 137 KTS...WHICH EQUALS TO ABOUT 120 KTS AT THE SURFACE AND THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. EARL IS VERY WELL DEFINED WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ON ALL QUADS...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST STRENGTHENING. I/M NOT FORECASTING ANYMORE STRENGTHENING WITH EARL...AND WHILE EARL DO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT MORE...BY THIS TIME TOMORROW IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ONCE EARL MOVES NORTH OF THE DELMARVA...WATER TEMPERATURES DROP AND SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND EARL WILL BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL PHRASE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND BE AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION DESPITE SOME WOBBLES TO THE NORTH IS 330/16 KTS. ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WORRY ME AS A FORECASTER CURRENTLY IS THAT EARL IS MOVING FASTER THAN THE TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EARL OUT TO SEA. WITH THAT IN MIND...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT EARL/S TURN TO THE NORTHEAST COULD BE DELAYED BY 10 TO 20 MILES AND IT MAKES A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS. WHILE THAT SCENARIO WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WILL BE KEPT IN CONSIDERATION FOR TOMORROW/S VERY IMPORTANT FORECASTS. MY OVERALL FORECAST TRACK IS A BASIC UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD NUDGE BY 10 OR SO MILES. EVEN THEN...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EYE OF EARL...THIS IS A LARGE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND IMPACTS WILL BE FELT FOR A LARGE AREA.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

02/03Z 27.8 N 73.8 W 120 KTS
02/15Z 29.7 N 74.9 W 120 KTS
03/03Z 32.5 N 75.2 W 115 KTS
03/15Z 35.0 N 74.1 W 100 KTS
04/03Z 38.0 N 70.0 W 90 KTS
05/03Z 45.5 N 61.0 W 45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
06/03Z 53.5 N 50.5 W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

00Z Tropical Update

2010-09-01T20:05:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE FORECAST 14A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 1, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 8:00 PM EDT/0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2 N 73.5 W OR 565 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB/27.79 IN.

COMPLETE FORECAST UPDATE AT 11 PM EDT.

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update

2010-09-01T18:43:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 14
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
6:16 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 1, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3 N 73.3 W OR 630 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 135 MPH. EARL IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTERWARDS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB/27.79 IN.

DUE TO THE LATENESS OF THIS FORECAST...THE DISCUSSION SECTION WILL BE SKIPPED AND UPDATED AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

01/21Z 26.3 N 73.3 W 115 KTS
02/09Z 28.0 N 74.5 W 115 KTS
02/21Z 30.7 N 75.6 W 110 KTS
03/09Z 33.2 N 75.3 W 105 KTS
03/21Z 36.1 N 73.0 W 100 KTS
04/21Z 43.5 N 63.0 W 70 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/21Z 51.0 N 51.0 W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

18Z Tropical Update

2010-09-01T14:02:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE FORECAST 13A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
2:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 1, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM NEW JERSEY TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 2:00 PM EDT/1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2 N 72.7 W OR 680 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH. EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE STORM NOW SUGGEST THAT EARL MAY BE STRENGTHENING AND COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 941 MB/27.79 IN.

ALSO OF NOTE IN THE TROPICS...TROPICAL STORM FIONA WITH 60 MPH WINDS LOCATED NEAR 19.3 N 62.2 W AND A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4 N 35.8 W AND 35 MPH WINDS. BUT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL REMAIN ON EARL UNTIL THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES SUBSIDE.

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update

2010-09-01T11:38:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 13
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:14 AM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 1, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM NEW JERSEY TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z THE EYE OF HURRICANE IS LOCATED 25.2 N 72.1 W OR 725 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH. EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON IS 943 MB/27.85 IN.

EARL...DESPITE A WELL DEFINED EYE AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWEST QUAD...EARL HAS WEAKEN A BIT AND INITIAL INTENSITY IS DOWN TO 110 KTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS THEN AS EARL MOVES FURTHER TO THE NORTH...EARL WILL MOVE INTO A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 4 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION 320/15 KTS. EARL IS CONTINUING ON A NORTHWEST TREK ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS THEN EARL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AS HE FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A TROUGH IN THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST AND THIS TROUGH WILL KICK EARL TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT THE SEA. WHEN THE TROUGH KICKS IN AND PULL EARL TO THE NORTHEAST IS CRITICAL AS TO RATHER EARL BRUSHES WITH NORTH CAROLINA OR MAKE A LANDFALL. MY FORECAST TRACK IS UPDATED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT WILL BRING THE CORE OF EARL INLAND.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

01/15Z 25.2 N 72.1 W 110 KTS
02/03Z 26.7 N 73.4 W 110 KTS
02/15Z 29.8 N 74.8 W 110 KTS
03/03Z 31.7 N 75.1 W 110 KTS
03/15Z 34.4 N 73.9 W 105 KTS
04/15Z 41.0 N 65.5 W 80 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/15Z 49.5 N 55.5 W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update

2010-08-31T23:11:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 12
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2010

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

AREAS FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0 N 69.9 W OR 910 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AS IT MAKES ITS APPROACH TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB/27.76 IN.

EARL APPEARS THAT HE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AN EYE IS ONCE AGAIN VISIBLE ON SATELLITE THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF SHEARING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF EARL. WINDS REMAIN AT 115 KTS. EARL WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH DESPITE THE SHEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. EARL WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS HE MOVES TOWARDS HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. AS EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD START IN ABOUT 84 TO 96 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 315/13 KTS. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN WOBBLES AS THE CASE WITH ALL INTENSE HURRICANES. EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A NORTHWEST TRACK AS IT FOLLOWS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH WILL DETERMINE WHEN EARL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. MY FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED MORE TO THE WEST TO WITHIN 60 MILES OF CAPE HATTERAS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF EARL AND AREAS FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

01/03Z 23.0 N 69.9 W 115 KTS
01/15Z 24.5 N 71.3 W 115 KTS
02/03Z 26.8 N 73.2 W 115 KTS
02/15Z 29.4 N 74.6 W 115 KTS
03/03Z 32.3 N 74.9 W 110 KTS
04/03Z 37.5 N 70.5 W 95 KTS
05/03Z 45.5 N 62.0 W 60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
06/03Z 52.5 N 54.0 W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

00Z Tropical Update

2010-08-31T20:08:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE FORECAST 11A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:00 PM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2010

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

AREAS FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 8:00 PM EDT/0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5 N 69.1 W OR 965 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB/27.76 IN.

A QUICK NOTE ON FIONA...FIONA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO NO FURTHER FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED UNLESS SIGNS SHOW THAT FIONA WILL NOT DISSIPATE.

COMPLETE UPDATE ON EARL AT 11 PM EDT.

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update-Earl

2010-08-31T17:30:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 11
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2010

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 22.0 N 68.8 W OR 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND BEGIN TO APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB/27.76 IN.

EARL/S EYEWALL HAVE BEGUN TO REFORM DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT WITH SHEAR ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STORM...INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 115 KTS. EARL COULD BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE STEADILY WEAKENING AS EARL MOVES INTO HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. EARL BY 96 HOURS SHOULD BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EARL IS NOW MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST 305/12 KTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STEER EARL IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY STEER EARL RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN 60 TO 72 HOURS...COMING VERY CLOSE TO THE NC COAST. FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE WEST FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THEN UPDATED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

BECAUSE OF THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND UNCERTAINTY OF EARL...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. AREAS FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA COAST IF EARL/S TRACK CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

31/21Z 22.0 N 68.8 W 115 KTS
01/09Z 23.1 N 70.4 W 115 KTS
01/21Z 25.1 N 72.4 W 120 KTS
02/09Z 27.5 N 74.1 W 115 KTS
02/21Z 30.5 N 75.0 W 110 KTS
03/21Z 36.0 N 71.5 W 95 KTS
04/21Z 43.0 N 63.5 W 70 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/21Z 51.5 N 57.0 W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update-Earl

2010-08-31T11:45:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 10
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:27 AM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 21.2 N 67.9 W OR 1070 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION WITH A GRADAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE IS 939 MB/27.73 IN.

EARL HAS NOT CHANGED IN INTENSITY FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS. RECON FOUND A PRESSURE OF 939 MB...WHICH MEANS THAT EARL IS VERY WELL GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. I/M NOT FORECAST FOR EARL TO GET MUCH STRONGER THAN WHAT HE IS NOT...IN FACT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EARL WILL MOVE INTO AN INCREASING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. SO EARL WILL BEGIN HIS WEAKENING PROCESS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS UNTIL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

INITIAL MOTION 300/12 KTS. EARL IS REMAINING ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EARL SHOULD BEGIN A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SOMETIME TODAY AS THE LONGER EARL REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST...ALSO WILL BRING INCREASED AFFECTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ALSO WATCHING THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY TO SEE WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE EARL TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE FORECAST TRACK STILL CALLS FOR EARL TO REMAIN OFF SHORE...THOUGH THE MODELS ARE STILL SLOWLY PUSHING FURTHER WEST. FORECAST TRACK DO SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE SHORT TERM...THEN IT/S AN UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MAY SEE HURRICANE WATCHES POSTED LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

31/15Z 21.2 N 67.9 W 115 KTS
01/03Z 22.3 N 69.5 W 115 KTS
01/15Z 24.0 N 71.5 W 115 KTS
02/03Z 26.2 N 73.2 W 115 KTS
02/15Z 28.9 N 74.3 W 115 KTS
03/15Z 35.0 N 72.5 W 105 KTS
04/15Z 42.5 N 64.5 W 85 KTS
05/15Z 51.5 N 57.0 W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update-Fiona

2010-08-31T11:14:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST 3
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 AM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9 N 55.3 W OR 440 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FIONA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB/29.71 IN.

FIONA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE INCREASED SOME IN ORGANIZATION. THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED IN THUNDERSTORMS SOME...WINDS STILL REMAIN AT 35 KTS. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY IN SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH I HAVE INDICATED IN MY FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT AGAINST FIONA THAT COULD CAUSE HER TO DISSIPATE ALSO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FIONA WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF MUCH HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES CAUSED BY EARL. MY INTENSITY FORECAST IS STRICTLY DEPENDENT UPON THAT FIONA CAN SURVIVE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.

INITIAL MOTION IS A RAPID 285/22 KTS. FIONA WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS SHE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. FORECAST IS AN UPDATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT FIONA WILL LIKELY MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SAME TROUGH THAT WILL PULL EARL OUT TO SEA...PULL FIONA OUT TO SEA AS WELL. BUT THE MODELS ARE VERY DIVERSE IN THE LONG TERM TRACK FROM FIONA...SO AREAS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BERMUDA AND EVEN THE EAST COAST NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FIONA.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

31/15Z 15.9 N 55.3 W 35 KTS
01/03Z 17.0 N 57.7 W 40 KTS
01/15Z 18.5 N 60.8 W 45 KTS
02/03Z 20.6 N 63.7 W 50 KTS
02/15Z 23.0 N 65.9 W 50 KTS
03/15Z 27.0 N 68.0 W 50 KTS
04/15Z 29.0 N 67.0 W 50 KTS
05/15Z 30.5 N 66.5 W 60 KTS

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update-Fiona

2010-08-30T23:41:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:28 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0 N 50.8 W OR 745 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FIONA IS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB/29.74 IN.

FIONA IS A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED STORM. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 2.0/2.0 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KTS. FIONA ACTUALLY HAVE SOME CHANCES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THEY ARE RATHER LIMITED. FIONA WILL MOVE THROUGH WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES AND LOW SHEAR COULD BRING FIONA UP TO A 45 KT TROPICAL STORM. THEN FIONA WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES CAUSED BY EARL AND FIONA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BACK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FIONA WILL NOT SURVIVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEREFORE MY INTENSITY FORECAST HAD DECREASED DRAMATICALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21 KTS. FIONA IS BEING STEERED BY THE SAME SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS STEERED EARL. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECT DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THEN A MOTION TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS FIONA FOLLOWS THE RIDGE. THIS IS IN THE MIDDLE OF FAIRLY DIVERSE MODELS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

31/03Z 15.0 N 50.8 W 35 KTS
31/15Z 15.7 N 53.4 W 35 KTS
01/03Z 16.9 N 56.8 W 35 KTS
01/15Z 18.5 N 60.2 W 40 KTS
02/03Z 20.7 N 63.1 W 45 KTS
03/03Z 25.5 N 67.0 W 45 KTS
04/03Z 27.5 N 67.5 W 40 KTS
05/03Z 28.5 N 68.5 W 40 KTS

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update-Earl

2010-08-30T23:14:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 9
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9 N 65.8 W OR 105 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB/27.70 IN.

IT SEEMS THAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THAT EARL HAS FINALLY DECIDED TO STOP STRENGTHENING SOME. MIMIC SHOWS WINDS OF 115 KTS AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. EARL MAY BE GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND THAT WILL HALT STRENGTHENING FOR A WHILE. ALSO THERE IS SOME SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF EARL. THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN EARL...IN FACT I STILL HAVE EARL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF AND FINALLY SLOWLY WEAKENING AS EARL WILL MOVE THROUGH A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES.

EARLS INITIAL MOTION 300/12 KTS. EARL CONTINUES ON HIS WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME WOBBLES WITH EARL WHICH IS EXPECTED WHEN HURRICANES ARE THIS STRONG. OVERALL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH I DID ADJUST THE TRACK TO THE WEST DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. STILL EXPECTING EARL TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY BOOST EARL OUT TO SEA. HOW SOON WILL THIS HAPPEN AS EARL APPROACHES THE COAST REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THERE IS STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TRACK OF EARL SO AREAS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND STILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. I/M EXPECTING THAT POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE NC/VA BORDER BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

31/03Z 19.9 N 65.8 W 115 KTS
31/15Z 20.9 N 67.3 W 125 KTS
01/03Z 22.2 N 69.6 W 125 KTS
01/15Z 23.7 N 71.6 W 120 KTS
02/03Z 25.9 N 73.4 W 110 KTS
03/03Z 31.5 N 74.5 W 105 KTS
04/03Z 37.0 N 70.0 W 85 KTS
05/03Z 43.5 N 59.5 W 65 KTS

JACKSON

01Z Tropical Update

2010-08-30T21:05:00.001-04:00

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE FORECAST UPDATE 8B
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
9:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTEREST FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 9:00 PM EDT/0100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7 N 65.5 W OR 100 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND EARL COULD APPROACH CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH ON TUESDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS 938 MB/27.70 IN.

THE NEXT COMPLETE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AT 11 PM EDT.

JACKSON

23Z Tropical Update

2010-08-30T19:05:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE FORECAST 8A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
7:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

AT 7:00 PM EDT/2300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4 N 65.1 W OR 95 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL COULD APPROACH CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH ON TUESDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 939 MB/27.73 IN.

THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AT 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY A COMPLETE UPDATE AT 11 PM EDT.

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update-Fiona

2010-08-30T18:22:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST 1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
6:17 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY DEVELOPED TROPICAL STORM FIONA IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4 N 48.7 W OR 890 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FIONA IS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB/29.74 IN.

DUE TO THE DELAY TIME OF GETTING FORECAST TRACK COMPLETED...WILL ONLY SHOW THE FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY. A FULL DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

30/21Z 14.4 N 48.7 W 35 KTS
31/09Z 14.6 N 51.3 W 45 KTS
31/21Z 15.4 N 54.9 W 50 KTS
01/09Z 16.6 N 58.3 W 60 KTS
01/21Z 18.3 N 61.5 W 65 KTS
02/21Z 22.5 N 66.5 W 65 KTS
03/21Z 25.5 N 68.5 W 60 KTS
04/21Z 29.5 N 68.0 W 60 KTS

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update-Earl

2010-08-30T17:22:00.001-04:00

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 8
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTEREST FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 19.3 N 64.7 W OR 110 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL CONTINUE TO PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 135 MPH. EARL IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL COULD APPROACH CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH BY TUESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB/27.99 IN.

EARL HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE RECON PLANE LEFT...ADT NUMBERS ARE ABOVE 6.0...WHICH NOW MAKES THIS A 115 KT CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRENGTHENING AS EARL HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT IN MY FORECAST...BUT NHC PEAKED EARL AT 130 KTS. I HAVE NOT GONE ABOVE 120 KTS BECAUSE EARL WILL HAVE TO GO THROUGH AT LESS ONE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND DURING THAT TIME EARL WILL LOSE A LITTLE BIT OF ITS STRENGTH. ALSO BEYOND 72 HOURS...EARL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH COOLER SSTS AND INCREASED SHEAR...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13 KTS. EARL IS STILL MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY...WHICH IS A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ALL OF THE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EARL MORE AND MORE TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND IS SLOWLY INCREASING THE THREAT OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTRY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWER AND WILL NOT REACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION UNTIL FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WITH THE DELAY MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH...EARL WILL NOT BEGIN A NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TURN UNTIL FRIDAY AND THE EARLIEST. THEREFORE...AREAS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS MY FORECAST TRACK HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE WEST AND I DO BELIEVE THAT TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES WILL BE POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

NOTE: THE 120 HOUR FORECAST PLOT IS NOT ON THE MAP DUE TO A CLOSE UP MAP OF THE SOUTHEAST THAT I/M USING AND THE MAP DO NOT GO ANY FURTHER NORTH THAT 40 N. THIS MAP WILL USED UNTIL THE THREAT HAS SUBSIDED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

30/21Z 19.3 N 64.7 W 115 KTS
31/09Z 20.1 N 66.3 W 120 KTS
31/21Z 21.3 N 68.4 W 120 KTS
01/09Z 22.6 N 70.3 W 115 KTS
01/21Z 24.5 N 72.2 W 110 KTS
02/21Z 30.0 N 74.5 W 110 KTS
03/21Z 36.0 N 71.0 W 90 KTS
04/21Z 43.0 N 59.5 W 70 KTS

JACKSON

18Z Tropical Update-Earl

2010-08-30T13:59:00.001-04:00

HURRICANE EARL SPECIAL FORECAST 7
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
2:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

AREAS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 2:00 PM EDT/1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0 N 64.0 W OR 75 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND EARL COULD BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF EARL APPROACHING CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON AIRCRAFT IS 955 MB/28.20 IN.

COMPLETE UPDATE COMING UP AT 5 PM EDT.

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update-Danielle

2010-08-29T23:22:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 13
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:11 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 39.3 N 53.0 W OR 510 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND DANIELLE WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB/28.94 IN.

DANIELLE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MAY BE IN THE BEGINNING PHRASES OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM DANIELLE IS GONE AND THE CENTER TOTALLY EXPOSED. WITH THAT IN MIND...INITIAL INTENSITY IS STILL 70 KTS. DANIELLE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHE CONTINUES THE EXTRATROPICAL PHRASE WHICH SHOULD BE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION 045/14 KTS. DANIELLE HAS SLOWED A BIT AND WILL CONTINUE AT THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH MONDAY WHEN DANIELLE WILL INCREASE HER FORWARD SPEED AND GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES. FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WITH DANIELLE BEGINNING HER PHRASE INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM...THIS WILL BE THE LAST FORECAST ISSUED ON DANIELLE FROM THE TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER. FOR OFFICIAL FORECASTS...YOU CAN GO TO THE NHC FORECAST SITE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS).

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

30/03Z 39.3 N 53.0 W 70 KTS
30/15Z 41.0 N 52.9 W 55 KTS
31/03Z 42.7 N 45.5 W 45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
31/15Z 44.2 N 38.1 W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
01/03Z 45.5 N 30.6 W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update-Earl

2010-08-29T23:05:00.001-04:00

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 6
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE EARL.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 17.9 N 61.1 W OR 50 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBUDA. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH. EARL IS NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. EARL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON AIRCRAFT IS 971 MB/28.67 IN.

EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KTS...WHICH EQUALS TO ABOUT 85 KTS ON THE SURFACE WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. EARL HAVE AN OPEN 30 MILE EYE AND CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. MY INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND STILL IS LOWER THAN NHCS INTENSITY FORECAST WHERE THEIR FORECASTING EARL TO BE NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. AS EARL MOVES TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST...EARL WILL RUN INTO COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED SHEAR AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

INITIAL MOTION OF EARL REMAINS 285/13 AND THIS HAS BEEN THE MOTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO MY FORECAST TRACK AS THE MODELS ARE A BIT HESITANT ON THE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST I HAVE SHIFTED MY FORECAST A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EARL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY PULL EARL OUT TO SEA. THE LONG TERM FORECAST I DID ADJUST TO THE EAST AND IS ON LINE WITH NHCS FORECAST TRACK. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND WHAT...IF ANY DIRECT AFFECTS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE EAST COAST...SO AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

30/03Z 17.9 N 61.1 W 85 KTS
30/15Z 18.7 N 62.6 W 90 KTS
31/03Z 20.0 N 64.6 W 95 KTS
31/15Z 21.3 N 66.6 W 100 KTS
01/03Z 22.7 N 68.4 W 105 KTS
02/03Z 27.5 N 71.5 W 105 KTS
03/03Z 33.5 N 72.0 W 100 KTS
04/03Z 40.5 N 65.0 W 90 KTS

JACKSON

00Z Tropical Update-Earl

2010-08-29T20:02:00.002-04:00

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 5A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:00 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 8:00 PM EDT/0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7 N 60.3 W OR 100 MILES EAST OF BARBUDA. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL CROSS NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND EARL WILL LIKELY BE A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY. CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON AIRCRAFT IS 972 MB/28.70 IN.

A COMPLETE UPDATE ON EARL AT 11 PM EDT.

JACKSON

21Z Tropcial Update-Danielle

2010-08-29T17:40:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 12
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:28 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 38.0 N 54.5 W OR 605 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE. DANIELLE IS RACING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 80 MPH AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND DANIELLE WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY WEDNESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB/28.85 IN.

DANIELLE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WHILE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DANIELLE IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM...WILL KEEP DANIELLE A 70 KT HURRICANE FOR NOW. ON SATELLITE DANIELLE/S CENTER HAVE BEEN EXPOSED AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO COOLER WATER AND WILL BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 72 HOURS OR SOONER.

INITIAL MOTION 025/22 KTS. DANIELLE WILL SLOW DOWN TEMPORARILY ON MONDAY BEFORE BEING PICKED UP AGAIN BY THE WESTERLIES AND THIS IS AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AND MOVING DANIELLE FURTHER EASTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS DANIELLE AWAY FROM NOVA SCOTIA.

NOTE: BECAUSE THE MAPS I HAVE DO NOT GO NORTH OF 40W WILL NOT INCLUDE MAP FOR REST OF DANIELLE/S LIFE...WILL JUST USE SATELLITE PICTURE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

29/21Z 38.0 N 54.5 W 70 KTS
30/09Z 39.8 N 52.5 W 60 KTS
30/21Z 41.7 N 48.5 W 50 KTS
31/09Z 43.4 N 40.6 W 35 KTS
31/21Z 44.7 N 34.3 W 30 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
01/21Z 48.5 N 24.0 W 20 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update-Earl

2010-08-29T17:24:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 5
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.

HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 17.6 N 59.5 W OR 150 MILES EAST OF BARBUDA. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH. EARL IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL IS WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB/28.88 IN.

EARL HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS. THE SHEAR FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND WITH VERY WARM SSTs...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THOUGH EARL WILL BE IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...I HAVE TRIMMED DOWN THE PEAK INTENSITY A BIT TO 105 KTS IN 72 HOURS...WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE 115 KTS THAT NHC IS FORECASTING DUE IN PART THAT EARL WILL HAVE TO GO THROUGH AT LEAST ONE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WHICH TEMPORARILY WEAKEN HURRICANES. BEYOND DAY 4...EARL WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER SSTs AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12 KTS. EARL HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS EARL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...EARL WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING DAYS 4 AND 5 AND FORECAST MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL EARL TO THE NORTHEAST WITHOUT AFFECTING THE EAST COAST DIRECTLY...BUT AREAS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE NORTHEAST WILL STILL HAVE INDIRECT AFFECTS. FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OF NHCS FORECAST TRACK. AGAIN...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WILL POSSIBLY BRING A MAJOR HURRICANE CLOSE TO THE OUTER BANKS...SO THOSE AREAS NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

29/21Z 17.6 N 59.5 W 75 KTS
30/09Z 18.3 N 61.2 W 80 KTS
30/21Z 19.4 N 63.2 W 95 KTS
31/09Z 20.6 N 65.0 W 100 KTS
31/21Z 22.0 N 66.6 W 100 KTS
01/21Z 26.0 N 69.5 W 105 KTS
02/21Z 32.0 N 71.0 W 105 KTS
03/21Z 38.0 N 67.0 W 90 KTS

JACKSON

18Z Tropical Outlook

2010-08-29T14:12:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
2:09 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER IS ISSUING FORECASTS ON HURRICANE DANIELLE...LOCATED 575 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND 85 MPH WINDS AND ON HURRICANE EARL...LOCATED 190 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA AND 75 MPH WINDS. COMPLETE DETAILS ON BOTH THESE SYSTEMS ARE IN THE PREVIOUS POSTS.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES HAD ITS THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE SOMEWHAT...BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AT ANYTIME AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

TROPICAL WAVE JUST MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WAVE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM DEVELOP IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

JACKSON

18Z Tropical Update

2010-08-29T14:07:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 4A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
2:03 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR...BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE WATCHES MEAN THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM DURING THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS.

AT 2:00 PM EDT/1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED BY HURRICANE HUNTERS NEAR 17.4 N 58.9 W OR 190 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...EARL IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BY HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 978 MB/28.88 IN.

THE NEXT COMPLETE FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE AT 5 PM EDT.

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update-Danielle

2010-08-29T11:38:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 11
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:29 AM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 35.5 N 55.5 W OR 575 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND ARE NEAR 85 MPH AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND DANIELLE WILL BE AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB/28.82 IN.

DANIELLE IS BEING WEAKENED BY INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO 3.0/4.0...BUT HAVE KEPT DANIELLE AT A 75 KT HURRICANE FOR NOW. FORECAST IS FOR DANIELLE TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY.

INITIAL MOTION IS 035/23 KTS. DANIELLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHEAST DIRECTION AND SLOW A BIT BY MONDAY...BEFORE PICKING UP FORWARD SPEED AND POSSIBLY MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DANIELLE WILL BE AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY THEN.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

29/15Z 35.5 N 55.5 W 75 KTS
30/03Z 37.7 N 53.8 W 70 KTS
30/15Z 40.1 N 50.9 W 60 KTS
31/03Z 42.1 N 46.6 W 50 KTS
31/15Z 43.4 N 40.9 W 45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
01/15Z 48.0 N 30.5 W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update-Earl

2010-08-29T11:21:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 4
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 AM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR...BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE WATCHES MEAN THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM DURING THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS.

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 17.2 N 58.4 W OR 225 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH. EARL IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND EARL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB/29.09 IN.

EARL HAVE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AT 1230Z...RECON FOUND THAT EARL WAS A HURRICANE WITH 65 KT WINDS AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SHEAR IS DECREASING FROM EARL AND WITH WATER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 25 AND 27C...ALL FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT EARL WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS WITH FEW MODELS BRINGING EARL TO CATEGORY 4 STATUS. MY INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS EARL AT 110 KTS...AND THIS SIDES CLOSELY TO NHCs FORECAST. AS DAYS 4 AND 5 APPROACHES...SOME SLIGHTLY INCREASED SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN EARL...BUT IT IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE.

EARL/S INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15 KTS. EARL IS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS WILL CAUSE EARL TO BEGIN THE TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE AND SLOW DOWN. FORECAST MODELS ARE FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TO THE FORECAST TRACK OF EARL AND CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH DAY 3...WHEN A TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL INFLUENCE EARL TO MOVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY COURSE. BY DAY 5...EARL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE WEST COULD BRING EARL VERY CLOSE TO A OUTER BANKS LANDFALL...SO AREAS FROM THE OUTER BANKS TO THE DELMARVA IN PARTICULARLY NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

29/15Z 17.2 N 58.4 W 65 KTS
30/03Z 18.0 N 60.1 W 75 KTS
30/15Z 19.0 N 62.3 W 85 KTS
31/03Z 20.1 N 64.3 W 95 KTS
31/15Z 21.4 N 66.1 W 100 KTS
01/15Z 25.0 N 69.5 W 105 KTS
02/15Z 31.0 N 72.0 W 110 KTS
03/15Z 37.5 N 70.0 W 100 KTS

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update-Earl

2010-08-25T23:32:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST 3
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:14 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 25, 2010

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7 N 33.6 W OR 615 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB/29.71 IN.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH EARL. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 2.0/2.5 AND ADT AT 3.0. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KTS. EARL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT CALLS FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THAT/S WHAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR AND EARL WILL LIKELY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DO NOT THINK THAT EARL WILL REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY BEFORE RELAXING AGAIN BY DAY 5.

INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 275/14. LIKE TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN ITS DEVELOPING STAGE...EARL IS LIKELY HAVING ITS CENTER RELOCATED A FEW TIMES. FORECAST TRACK AND THINKING REMAINS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND NHCs FORECAST TRACK. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STEER EARL TO THE WEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THEN FOLLOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. NONE OF THE RELIABLE MODELS POINT OUT A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD INCREASE DANGER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. ALL AREAS ALONG THE EAST COAST NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

26/03Z 14.7 N 33.6 W 35 KTS
26/15Z 15.4 N 35.7 W 40 KTS
27/03Z 16.4 N 38.9 W 50 KTS
27/15Z 17.1 N 42.1 W 60 KTS
28/03Z 17.9 N 45.4 W 70 KTS
29/03Z 19.0 N 52.0 W 80 KTS
30/03Z 20.5 N 57.5 W 85 KTS
31/03Z 22.5 N 62.5 W 90 KTS

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update-Danielle

2010-08-25T23:05:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 10
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 26, 2010

RESIDENTS OF BERMUDA NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE...TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE POSTED AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 22.4 N 54.1 W OR 940 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 100 MPH...DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB/28.79 IN.

DANIELLE HAVE BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES AND A EYE ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE. DESPITE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 4.5/4.5 AND ADT OF 4.3 AROUND 00Z...BEST ESTIMATES THAT DANIELLE HAS INCREASED WINDS OF 85 KTS...A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. DANIELLE HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING HURRICANE TO FORECAST FOR TO SAY THE LEAST. DANIELLE WILL MOVE INTO PRIMO ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. DANIELLE WILL THEN MOVE INTO COOLER WATERS AND A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND THAT SHOULD BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS BY DAY 5.

DANIELLE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/15. DANIELLE AT TIMES ON SATELLITE HAVE BEEN MOVING ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION BUT THAT IS A TEMPORARY JOG. ALL THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE DANIELLE MOVING ON A NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THAT/S WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE. NOGAPS CONTINUE TO BE THE OUTLIER OF THE MODELS AND PULL DANIELLE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE A LOT OF OTHER MODELS TAKE DANIELLE ON A NORTHERLY COURSE THEN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BY DAYS 4 AND 5. MY FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND PULL DANIELLE TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAYS 4 AND 5 IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH PULLING DANIELLE OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TOWARDS BERMUDA IN 4 DAYS...SO ALL RESIDENTS NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE AS WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED BY THURSDAY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

26/03Z 22.4 N 54.1 W 85 KTS
26/15Z 23.6 N 55.4 W 85 KTS
27/03Z 24.3 N 57.1 W 90 KTS
27/15Z 26.0 N 59.0 W 95 KTS
28/03Z 27.2 N 60.7 W 100 KTS
29/03Z 30.0 N 62.5 W 95 KTS
30/03Z 33.0 N 61.5 W 85 KTS
31/03Z 36.0 N 59.0 W 75 KTS

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update-Danielle

2010-08-25T17:19:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 9
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 25, 2010

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 21.2 N 53.1 W OR 685 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB/29.00 IN.

DANIELLE HAVE BEEN TRYING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS TO GATHER MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR THAT HAVE BEEN PLAUGING THIS SYSTEM THE PAST 36 HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES AS OF 1745Z WAS AT 4.5/4.5 WHILE THE ADT WAS AT 3.8. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KTS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS WHEN IT WILL ONCE AGAIN RELAX TO BELOW 10 KTS...GIVING DANIELLE ABOUT A 48 HOUR WINDOW TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH BEFORE STRONG SOUTHWEST SHEAR AND DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WEAKEN DANIELLE. THEREFORE...I HAVE INCREASED THE PEAK INTENSITY UP 5 KTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEFORE DANIELLE BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN 4 DAYS AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH NHCs.

INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 315/15. DANIELLE HAVE BEGUN TO MAKE THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT IS BEGINNING TO FOLLOW THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN DIVERGE GREATLY AS TO WHERE DANIELLE WILL GO. THIS LARGE DIVERGENCE IN MODELS SUGGEST A LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST TRACK OF DANIELLE. NOGAPS IS STILL THE OUTLIER AS THAT MODEL WANT TO BRING DANIELLE VERY CLOSE TO THE DELMARVA WITHING 180 HOURS (OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD)...WHILE THE LBAR RECURVES DANIELLE COMPLETELY TO THE NORTHEAST. I/M LEANING (WITH LOW CONFIDENCE MIGHT I ADD) THAT DANIELLE WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEGIN THE RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO BERMUDA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...SO RESIDENTS IN BERMUDA NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE TRACK OF DANIELLE AS WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

25/21Z 21.2 N 53.1 W 75 KTS
26/09Z 22.0 N 54.7 W 75 KTS
26/21Z 23.4 N 56.6 W 85 KTS
27/09Z 24.5 N 58.2 W 85 KTS
27/21Z 26.0 N 60.0 W 90 KTS
28/21Z 29.0 N 63.0 W 95 KTS
29/21Z 32.0 N 62.5 W 95 KTS
30/21Z 35.5 N 60.5 W 80 KTS

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update-Earl

2010-08-25T16:51:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 25, 2010

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4 N 32.2 W OR 520 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB/29.71 IN.

EARL HAVE SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 2.5/2.5 AND ADT AT 2.5...EARL HAS BEEN BORN WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS. EARL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND IS LIKELY THAT EARL WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. I DO NOT HOWEVER AT THIS TIME EXPECT EARL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGEST IN ABOUT 84 HOURS...SHEAR FROM THE NORTH COULD IMPACT EARL AND COULD SLOW DOWN OR EVEN STOP THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS...SO BROUGHT DOWN THE PEAK INTENSITY SLIGHTLY DOWN TO 80 KTS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14 KTS. EARL IS BEING STEERED BY THE SAME MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS STEERING DANIELLE. FORECAST FOR EARL IS A BASIC UPDATE FROM THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE AS EARL IN TIME WILL FOLLOW THE SAME WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...EARL SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHAT EFFECT IF ANY WILL EARL HAVE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. REMAINS TO BE SEEN. SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS DO BRING EARL CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST IN ABOUT 7 TO 10 DAYS IN TIME FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...SO ALL AREAS FROM FLORIDA TO VIRGINIA NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

25/21Z 14.4 N 32.2 W 35 KTS
26/09Z 15.0 N 34.3 W 40 KTS
26/21Z 15.9 N 37.3 W 50 KTS
27/09Z 16.7 N 40.4 W 60 KTS
27/21Z 17.4 N 43.6 W 70 KTS
28/21Z 18.5 N 50.0 W 75 KTS
29/21Z 19.0 N 55.5 W 75 KTS
30/21Z 21.0 N 60.0 W 80 KTS

JACKSON

15Z Tropcial Update #2

2010-08-25T11:19:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 8
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:07 AM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 25, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 19.6 N 52.3 W OR 710 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AT A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB/29.00 IN.

DANIELLE IS STILL STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE WESTERLY SHEAR...DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 4.0/4.0 WHICH SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE DANIELLE AT 75 KTS...WHICH MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH. DANIELLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SHEAR FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO RELAX...UNTIL THEN EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF WEAKENING. AFTER 24 HOURS...DANIELLE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND MAY GO THROUGH ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE 24 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME BEFORE DANIELLE MOVES INTO COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST SHEAR BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS WHICH WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS OF DANIELLE.

DANIELLE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/15 KTS. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN THE WEAKNESS CAUSED BY A WEAKENING RIDGE AND A TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND WILL CAUSE DANIELLE TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER SPEED. FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND THE SPREAD INCREASE AS A SECOND TROUGH MOVE OFF THE U.S. TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOGAPS (NAVY) MODEL IS LIKELY THE OUTLIER WHICH BRING DANIELLE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AND BRING DANIELLE OFF THE EAST COAST IN 5 TO 6 DAYS. WHILE THIS IS UNLIKELY...I THINK THAT DANIELLE WILL FEEL ENOUGH OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH AND BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY 5 PERIOD. I STILL HAVE DANIELLE FORECAST TO COME CLOSE ENOUGH BERMUDA...THAT AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BEEN NEEDED BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

25/15Z 19.6 N 52.3 W 75 KTS
26/03Z 20.7 N 53.8 W 75 KTS
26/15Z 22.0 N 55.7 W 80 KTS
27/03Z 23.1 N 57.3 W 80 KTS
27/15Z 24.3 N 58.7 W 85 KTS
28/15Z 27.5 N 61.5 W 90 KTS
29/15Z 30.5 N 63.0 W 90 KTS
30/15Z 32.5 N 62.5 W 80 KTS

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update #1

2010-08-25T10:54:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 FORECAST 1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 AM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 25, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 IS LOCATED NEAR 14.3 N 30.8 W OR 430 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 17 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB/29.74 IN.

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST A FEW DAYS AGO QUICKLY GOT ORGANIZED AND WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 2.0/2.0 AND A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION AND DECENT OUTFLOW...THIS HAS NOW BECOME DEPRESSION AND CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THIS DEPRESSION IS UNDER AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY LATER TODAY. VERY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND SHEAR LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL LIKELY MAKE THIS DEPRESSION A HURRICANE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AND COULD SLOW DOWN THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS DEPRESSION...BUT FOR NOW HAVE IT CAPPED AT A CATEGORY 2 85 KTS HURRICANE IN ABOUT 5 DAYS...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH NHCs FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15...WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...WHERE LIKE DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE AND TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. FORECAST MODELS ARE FAIRLY CLUSTERED IN THE MOTION OF TD 7 AND MY FORECAST IS ALONG THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO NHCs FORECAST TRACK. RIGHT NOW...EXPECTING TD 7 TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

25/15Z 14.3 N 30.8 W 30 KTS
26/03Z 14.9 N 33.4 W 35 KTS
26/15Z 15.6 N 36.5 W 40 KTS
27/03Z 16.5 N 39.5 W 50 KTS
27/15Z 17.1 N 42.6 W 60 KTS
28/15Z 18.0 N 48.5 W 75 KTS
29/15Z 19.0 N 54.0 W 80 KTS
30/15Z 21.0 N 58.0 W 85 KTS

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update

2010-08-24T23:03:00.001-04:00

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 7
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 24, 2010

RESIDENTS IN BERMUDA NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED 18.2 N 49.8 W OR 795 MILES EAST OF LEEWARD ISLANDS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAIN WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS NOT EXPECT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB/29.23 IN.

DANIELLE IS TRYING TO GET HER ACT TOGETHER. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE APPEARED AND THERE IS LESS DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN THE SYSTEM AND THOUGH IT IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME SHEAR...DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 3.5/4.0 AND ADT NUMBERS OF 3.8...DANIELLE HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE WITH 65 KTS. DANIELLE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHEAR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO THEN DANIELLE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS BEFORE SOUTHWEST SHEAR INCREASE IN ABOUT 5 DAYS AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES CAUSE DANIELLE TO BEGIN WEAKEN.

INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 295/16. DANIELLE IS MOVING ALONG THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WITH THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE...DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE WEAKER THAN MODELS ORIGINALLY SHOWED AND THIS COULD DELAY THE TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND AGAIN CLOSE TO NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

25/03Z 18.2 N 49.8 W 65 KTS
25/15Z 19.3 N 51.5 W 65 KTS
26/03Z 20.8 N 53.7 W 65 KTS
26/15Z 21.8 N 55.3 W 65 KTS
27/03Z 23.6 N 57.3 W 70 KTS
28/03Z 26.5 N 60.5 W 85 KTS
29/03Z 30.0 N 62.5 W 95 KTS
30/03Z 31.5 N 63.0 W 80 KTS

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update

2010-08-24T16:57:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST 6
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 24, 2010

RESIDENTS OF BERMUDA NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE.

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 17.5 N 48.2 W OR 895 MILES EAST OF LEEWARD ISLANDS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...LITTLE CHANCE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB/29.32 IN.

DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO FEEL THE SOUTHWEST SHEAR AND DRY AIR IS CONTINUING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE STORM. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE DOWN FURTHER TO 3.0/4.0 AND ADT NUMBERS DOWN TO 3.6 ALL INDICATING THAT DANIELLE HAS WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM...AND THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DOWN FURTHER TO 60 KTS. I/M NOT EXPECTING DANIELLE TO WEAKEN MUCH MORE. AFTER ABOUT 48 TO 60 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN RELAX AND DANIELLE WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL CAUSE DANIELLE TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND COULD BE AS STRONG AS DANIELLE WAS JUST 12 HOURS AGO.

INITIAL MOTION IS 295/16 KTS. DANIELLE/S FORECAST TRACK HAVE AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AS DANIELLE IS WEAKENING AND WILL CAUSE THE STORM TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE WEST. I AM STILL EXPECTING THE RIDGE THAT HAVE BEEN STEERING TO WEAKEN AND THAT WEAKNESS WILL GRADUALLY STEER DANIELLE TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH DANIELLE/S TRACK MOVING FURTHER TO THE WEST WILL BRING AN INCREASED DANGER TO BERMUDA IN ABOUT 5 DAYS...SO FOLKS ON THAT ISLAND CHAIN WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

24/21Z 17.5 N 48.2 W 60 KTS
25/09Z 18.3 N 52.0 W 60 KTS
25/21Z 19.7 N 52.2 W 60 KTS
26/03Z 21.0 N 54.4 W 60 KTS
26/21Z 22.3 N 56.1 W 65 KTS
27/21Z 25.5 N 59.0 W 75 KTS
28/21Z 29.5 N 61.0 W 85 KTS
29/21Z 33.0 N 62.0 W 85 KTS

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update

2010-08-24T11:20:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 5
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 AM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 24, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6 N 46.5 W OR 985 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...WHILE DANIELLE HAVE WEAKEN SOME...FORECAST DOES CALL FOR DANIELLE TO RESTRENGTHEN WITHIN 12 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB/29.09 IN.

DANIELLE/S RAPID INTENSIFICATION CYCLE HAVE COME TO A SCREECHING HALT. WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS...SOUTHWEST SHEAR AND SOME DRY AIR HAVE TAKEN OVER THE STORM SOMEWHAT...AND DVORAK ESTIMATES WENT DOWN TO 4.0/4.5 AND THE ADT AT 4.2...WITH THAT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 70 KTS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOW THAT THE SOUTHWEST SHEAR WILL LAST ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS SO HOW MUCH FURTHER DANIELLE WILL WEAKEN IS UNKNOWN...BUT I AM STILL FORECASTING FOR STRENGTHENING...NOW BECAUSE OF DANIELLE WEAKENING...I HAVE ADJUSTED MY FORECAST TO KEEP DANIELLE FROM BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH NHCs FORECAST INTENSITY AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION 290/17. FORECAST TRACK THINKING HASN/T CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PAST PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING DANIELLE TO FOLLOW THE RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN FOLLOW THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AGAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

24/15Z 16.6 N 46.5 W 70 KTS
25/03Z 17.3 N 48.1 W 80 KTS
25/15Z 18.7 N 50.5 W 80 KTS
26/03Z 20.1 N 52.5 W 80 KTS
26/15Z 21.6 N 54.1 W 85 KTS
27/15Z 25.0 N 56.5 W 85 KTS
28/15Z 28.0 N 59.0 W 95 KTS
29/15Z 32.0 N 60.0 W 90 KTS

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update

2010-08-23T22:52:00.000-04:00

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 4
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 23, 2010

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 15.6 N 43.2 W OR 1205 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB/29.00 IN.

DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS DANIELLE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN 13 MBS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ADT NUMBERS REMAIN AT 4.3 AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 4.0/4.0 BUT I BELIEVE THAT DANIELLE MAY BE STRONGER WITH AN EYE CLEARLY DEFINED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE. BASED ON THAT...I HAVE INCREASED DANIELLE TO 75 KTS. DANIELLE IS UNDER AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE HER STRENGTH AND I HAVE INCREASED THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP ANOTHER 5 KTS FROM THE LAST FORECAST. I EXPECT THAT DANIELLE WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PEAK STRENGTH TO 105 KTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER KEEP IN MIND THAT IF TRENDS CONTINUE...THAT DANIELLE COULD EASILY BE STRONGER THAN THE FORECAST I HAVE. DANIELLE AFTER ABOUT 72 HOURS WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN TO BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY 5 AS SOUTHWEST SHEAR WILL EFFECT THE STORM.

INITIAL MOTION 285/17. DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO BE STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL CAUSE DANIELLE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS. BY AROUND 36 HOURS...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WILL CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO BEGIN A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THIS IS STILL BEING INDICATED BY THE FORECAST MODELS...NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL DANIELLE MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST. MY NEW FORECAST TRACK CONTINUE DANIELLE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE SINCE BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST BUT STILL REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND REMAINS CLOSE TO NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

24/03Z 15.6 N 43.2 W 75 KTS
24/15Z 16.6 N 44.9 W 90 KTS
25/03Z 18.2 N 47.3 W 100 KTS
25/15Z 20.0 N 49.8 W 105 KTS
26/03Z 22.0 N 52.0 W 105 KTS
27/03Z 27.5 N 55.0 W 105 KTS
28/03Z 28.5 N 57.5 W 100 KTS
29/03Z 32.0 N 58.5 W 95 KTS

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update

2010-08-23T16:49:00.001-04:00

COR TO INPUT MISSING INFORMATION
HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 3
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 23, 2010

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY DEVELOPED HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 15.4 N 41.5 W OR 1320 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB/29.15 IN.

DANIELLE HAS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH BANDING FEATURES IMPROVING. 1745Z DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 4.0/4.0 AND THE ADT NUMBERS HAVE CLIMBED TO 4.2 WHICH EQUALS TO 72 KTS. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 65 KTS...WHICH MAKES DANIELLE A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE AND THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2010 SEASON. DANIELLE MAY BE GOING THROUGH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION CYCLE DUE TO THE WARM SSTs AND SHEAR NOW LESS THAN 10 KTS. I HAVE UPPED THE INTENSITY FORECAST TO MAKE DANIELLE A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE IT MAY HAPPEN SOONER THAN THE FORECAST INDICATES. SOUTHWEST SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 72 HOURS AND SHOULD HALT STRENGTHENING AND SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF AS THE FORECAST INDICATES.

INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15 KTS. DANIELLE IS STILL BEING STEERED BY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. THEN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE DANIELLE TO BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MY UPDATED FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CLOSE WITH NHCs AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

23/21Z 15.4 N 41.5 W 65 KTS
24/09Z 16.0 N 43.2 W 80 KTS
24/21Z 17.4 N 45.8 W 90 KTS
25/09Z 19.1 N 48.3 W 100 KTS
25/21Z 21.1 N 50.6 W 100 KTS
26/21Z 24.5 N 54.0 W 100 KTS
27/21Z 28.0 N 56.0 W 100 KTS
28/21Z 32.0 N 57.5 W 100 KTS

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update

2010-08-23T10:52:00.001-04:00

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 AM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 23, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 15.1 N 39.4W OR 1025 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HOURS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB/29.35 IN.

DANIELLE HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW BETTER ORGANIZATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WHILE THE DEEPEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME...DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 3.5/3.5 AND THE MIMIC-IR SHOWING SATELLITE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS...I HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE THE WINDS TO 55 KTS. DANIELLE IS NOW IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE SHEAR IS LESS THAN 10 KTS AND THIS IS HER BEST OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN WHICH ALL FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST SHE WILL DO AND BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. DANIELLE ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS THOUGH MY INTENSITY FORECAST DO NOT SHOW THIS. SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND THE 72 HOUR MARK AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP DANIELLE FROM FURTHER STRENGTHENING BEYOND THIS TIME...AND IN FACT COULD WEAKEN HER SLIGHTLY AS INDICATED IN MY FORECAST. I BRING DANIELLE TO A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE IN 3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY SOME VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

INITIAL MOTION IS 290/14. DANIELLE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HENCE THE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT A FASTER SPEED THROUGH THE MID FORECAST RANGE. WHILE THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...I/M NOT TOO FOND OF HOW FAR WEST THEY TAKE DANIELLE BEFORE RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE I/M ALSO NOT SHOWING THIS IN MY FORECAST TRACK...I DO BELIEVE THAT AT THIS TIME...DANIELLE WILL NOT ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN BEYOND 55 DEGREES. THAT IS BECAUSE A STRONG TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARDS DANIELLE AND I THINK THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE DANIELLE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. SECOND...THERE WILL BE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT WILL CAUSE DANIELLE TO FOLLOW THE WEAKNESS AND IN TURN SLOW DOWN DANIELLE. MY FORECAST TRACK IS EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND EAST OF MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE GFS SOLUTION. MY FORECAST TRACK FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES IS ALSO EAST OF NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

23/15Z 15.1 N 39.4 W 55 KTS
24/03Z 15.8 N 41.2 W 60 KTS
24/15Z 17.1 N 43.9 W 75 KTS
25/03Z 18.8 N 46.6 W 80 KTS
25/15Z 20.6 N 49.1 W 90 KTS
26/15Z 24.0 N 52.5 W 95 KTS
27/15Z 27.5 N 53.5 W 90 KTS
28/15Z 31.5 N 53.5 W 90 KTS

JACKSON

14Z Tropical Outlook

2010-08-23T09:57:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
9:54 AM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 23, 2010

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER IS CURRENTLY ISSUING FORECASTS ON TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE...LOCATED 850 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 60 MPH WINDS.

TROPICAL WAVE JUST MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS.

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update

2010-08-22T23:04:00.001-04:00

COR FOR KNOTS IN FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY SECTION

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST 1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 22, 2010

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2 N 35.9 W OR 770 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT XX MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB/29.53 IN.

WHILE DANIELLE HAS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY...CONFLICTS WITH TIME HAS PREVENTED ME TO ISSUE A FORECAST UNTIL NOW. NOW THAT IS OUT OF THE WAY...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...DANIELLE HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN INCREASE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 3.0/3.0 AND ADT AT 0145 IS SHOWING 3.4...BECAUSE OF THIS THE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KTS. EASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL HAVING SOME IMPACT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF DANIELLE...BUT SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOW THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE TO BELOW 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND COMBINED WITH WARM SSTS THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DANIELLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF INCREASING IN STRENGTH AND TO BECOME A HURRICANE...WHICH MY FORECAST SHOWS IN 36 HOURS. IN THE 72 TO 96 HOUR TIME FRAME...SOUTHWEST SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE STRENGTHENING CYCLE AT AROUND 85 KTS BUT IF THE SHEAR TAKE LONGER TO INCREASE...THEN THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DANIELLE COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 315/11 KTS. DANIELLE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH DANIELLE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP AND WILL CAUSE DANIELLE TO SLOW IN MOTION. TWO TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND RIGHT NOW...IT IS NOT EXPECT THAT THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RECURVE DANIELLE BUT INSTEAD DANIELLE WILL FOLLOW THE WEAKNESS AND A MOTION MORE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL COMMENCE. THE SECOND TROUGH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DANIELLE TO THE NORTH. SO FAR...NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW DANIELLE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD INCREASE A DANGER TO BERMUDA. OVERALL MY FORECAST SHOW DANIELLE MOVING ALONG THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENEVELOPE AND A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST OF NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

23/03Z 14.2 N 35.9 W 45 KTS
23/15Z 15.0 N 37.4 W 50 KTS
24/03Z 16.2 N 40.0 W 55 KTS
24/15Z 17.7 N 43.0 W 65 KTS
25/03Z 19.3 N 45.9 W 70 KTS
26/03Z 22.5 N 51.0 W 80 KTS
27/03Z 25.5 N 53.0 W 85 KTS
28/03Z 29.0 N 54.0 W 85 KTS

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update

2010-08-11T11:32:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #5 FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:04 AM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 11, 2010

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FL TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM (1500Z)...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 IS LOCATED NEAR 27.8 N 86.8 W OR 165 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH AND SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. MOVEMENT IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB/29.77 IN.

DEEP BREATH...THIS DEPRESSION IS A LARGE...DISORGANIZED SYSTEM THAT HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE EASTERLY SHEAR. IT NOW APPEARS WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...BUT NOT MUCH AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. DVORAK AND ADT ARE ESTIMATING THAT WINDS ARE ONLY 25 KTS...AND WILL USE THIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD SUGGEST SOME VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL AND MOST MODELS FOR THAT MATTER DO NOT SUGGEST THAT THIS DEPRESSION CAN REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...I WILL HOLD ON FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE FORECAST THAT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH COULD BE REACHED BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS CLOSING QUICKLY. AFTER LANDFALL...HEAVY RAIN COULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AS THE DEPRESSION QUICKLY WEAKENS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN 96 TO 120 HOURS.

DUE TO THE CENTER RELOCATING FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10 KTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS MODELS FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH LANDFALL NEAR BURAS LA WITHIN 24 TO 30 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL SLOW DUE TO A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA OF WEAKNESS. THE DEPRESSION WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING. FORECAST TRACK IS FURTHER WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND SIMILAR TO NHCs FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS WHERE MY FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF NHCs.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

11/15Z 27.8 N 86.8 W 25 KTS
12/03Z 28.7 N 88.0 W 30 KTS
12/15Z 29.6 N 89.4 W 35 KTS
13/03Z 30.6 N 90.1 W 20 KTS...INLAND
13/15Z 31.3 N 90.3 W 20 KTS...INLAND
14/15Z 32.5 N 90.0 W 20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING
15/15Z 33.5 N 88.0 W 20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update

2010-08-10T23:36:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #5 FORECAST 1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:16 PM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 10, 2010

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN, FL TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT (0300Z)...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2 N 84.2 W OR 245 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA, FL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB/29.74 IN.

THE AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT EARLIER TODAY WENT TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND WITH BARELY ENOUGH THUNDERSTORM TO CLASSIFY THIS AS A DEPRESSION. SINCE THEN...THE DEPRESSION IS ALMOST VOID OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. DVORAK ESTIMATES SHOW THAT THIS IS STILL A 30 KT DEPRESSION. WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS IN 30 TO 31C WATERS...EASTERLY SHEAR IS KEEPING THIS SYSTEM FOR HAVING THE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS NEEDED TO BECOME A STRONGER SYSTEM. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...BOTH MY AND NHCs INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL IN THINKING THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL SLOWLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS.

IT HAS BEEN AT TIMES DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER...BUT GOING OFF MICROWAVE SATELLITES...INITIAL MOTION IS 320/4. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WILL CAUSE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH MOST OF ITS LIFE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH...MAKING LANDFALL NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WITH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND EAST OF NHCs FORECAST TRACK WITH HAVE IT MAKING A LOUISIANA LANDFALL IN ABOUT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

11/03Z 26.2 N 84.2 W 30 KTS
11/15Z 27.1 N 85.5 W 30 KTS
12/03Z 28.3 N 87.0 W 35 KTS
12/15Z 29.3 N 88.3 W 40 KTS
13/03Z 30.2 N 89.0 W 35 KTS...INLAND
14/03Z 32.0 N 89.0 W 25 KTS...INLAND
15/03Z 33.5 N 87.5 W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update

2010-08-03T11:06:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST #3
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
10:45 AM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 3, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2 N 49.5 W OR 840 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH AND SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOTION OF COLIN IS WEST AT 24 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO MISS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT ANY FURTHER TURN TO THE WEST COULD PROMPT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES. MINIMUM ESTIMATE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB/29.71 IN.

COLIN WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SINCE...THE APPEARANCE OF THIS STORM IS FAIRLY RAGGED TO SAY THE LEAST AND APPEARS THAT SOME WESTERLY SHEAR HAVE IMPACTED COLIN SOME. DVORAK ESTIMATES SHOW THAT COLIN SHOULD BE STILL A DEPRESSION...WHILE BOTH THE ADT AND MIMIC-IR SHOW THAT COLIN IS A 45 MPH TROPICAL STORM. BASED ON THE RAGGED APPEARANCE AND THE LACK OF DEEP THUNDERSTORMS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 35 KTS. COLIN IS STRUGGLING TO KEEP ANY DEEP THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME DUE TO HIS RAPID FORWARD MOTION AND WHAT COULD BE THE BEGINNING EFFECTS OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR. THOUGH I DO SHOW COLIN EVENTUALLY FIGHTING THIS AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT DO HAVE TO BE MENTIONED THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT COLIN DUE TO HIS RAPID MOTION BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE IN A FEW DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS AGAIN A SWIFT 280/21 KTS. COLIN HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THIS IS LIKELY A TEMPORARY MOTION AS A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. WITH COLIN BEING A WEAK SYSTEM...HE WILL LIKELY FIND THE WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH AND BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOW THIS CLOSELY THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN GRADUAL DIVERGE ON WHERE COLIN COULD GO. GROUP OF MODELS CONTINUE COLIN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND GET CAUGHT UP IN A TROUGH AND RECURVE OUT TO SEA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING BERMUDA...WHILE A FEW OTHERS CONTINUE COLIN ON A WEST-NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWEST MOTION CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MY FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT AND NHC HAS APPARENTLY CAUGHT UP TO THIS SUGGESTION DUE TO THE SIMILAR FORECAST TRACK THAT THEY HAVE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

03/15Z 14.2 N 49.5 W 35 KTS
04/03Z 15.3 N 52.1 W 40 KTS
04/15Z 16.7 N 55.8 W 50 KTS
05/03Z 18.3 N 59.2 W 55 KTS
05/15Z 20.0 N 62.1 W 60 KTS
06/15Z 23.0 N 66.5 W 60 KTS
07/15Z 26.5 N 68.5 W 60 KTS
08/15Z 28.0 N 70.5 W 60 KTS

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update

2010-08-02T23:07:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 FORECAST #2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
10:31 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 2, 2010

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6 N 45.1 W OR ABOUT 1090 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB/29.74 IN.

DURING THE COURSE OF THE PAST 6 HOURS...THE DEPRESSION IS LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED STRUCTURE WISE...BUT CAN/T GET ANY DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WHICH WOULD REALLY MAKE THIS STORM STRONGER THAT WHAT IT COULD BE. DVORAK...ADT...AND MIMIC-IR ESTIMATES ALL SHOW THAT THIS IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BUT I BELIEVE THAT THIS SYSTEM NEEDS SOME DEEPER THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TO HAPPEN AND WITH IT/S FAST MOTION I/M SUSPECTING THAT THIS WILL KEEP THE DEPRESSION FOR DEVELOPING DEEP THUNDERSTORMS...SO WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KTS. CONDITIONS DO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ALSO FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...I/M NOT SHOWING WEAKENING AS I HAD WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE TO THE SHIPS MODEL ARE NOT SHOWING THE SHEAR AS STRONG AS IT DID EARLIER...BUT I/M STILL KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SHORT OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. MY INTENSITY FORECAST IS A SLIGHT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST I STILL HAVE THE SYSTEM PEAKING AT 60 KTS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT I DON/T HAVE ANY WEAKENING AS I DID DURING MY PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT THIS REMAINS STRONGER THAN NHCs INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO I DON/T SEE THE SHEAR AS STRONG AS IT INDICATED EARLIER.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SWIFT 285/20. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE STORM AND THIS WILL BE THE GENERAL MOTION THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST MODELS DIVEREGE BEYOND AROUND THE 48 TO 72 HOUR MARK WHERE THERE ARE TWO SCENARIOS THAT COULD PLAY OUT IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION. ONE IS WHERE IT GETS CAUGHT UP BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TOWARDS DAYS 4 AND 5 AND RECURVE OUT TO SEA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING BERMUDA BY THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MUST MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE OR THE DEPRESSION GET CAUGHT IN A WEAKNESS IN STEERING PATTERN AND THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN IN FORWARD SPEED TOWARDS DAYS 4 AND 5 AND POSSIBLY INCREASING THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. I HAVE BEEN GOING WITH THIS POSSIBILITY FOR THE LAST FORECAST AND I/M GOING TO STICK WITH IT FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OVERALL MY FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE NORTHWEST OF MY PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND SOUTH OF NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST

03/03Z 13.6 N 45.1 W 30 KTS
03/15Z 14.4 N 47.7 W 35 KTS
04/03Z 15.9 N 51.5 W 40 KTS
04/15Z 17.4 N 55.1 W 45 KTS
05/03Z 19.0 N 58.1 W 55 KTS
06/03Z 22.0 N 63.0 W 60 KTS
07/03Z 24.0 N 65.5 W 60 KTS
08/03Z 26.5 N 68.5 W 60 KTS

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update

2010-08-02T11:51:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST #1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:33 AM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 2, 2010

AT 11AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY DEVELOPED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 41.1W OR ABOUT 1365 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION AND A FASTER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH AND THIS DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006MB/29.71IN.

I HAVE BEEN WATCHING THIS SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW AND WAS CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS MORNING...A CLOSED CIRCULATION WAS DETECTED IN MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED SOME...FORECASTS WILL BEGIN ON TD 4. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KTS AND THIS IS THE SAME THAT THE DVORAK ESTIMATES SHOW ALSO. THIS DEPRESSION IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...STRONGER THAN NHCs INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER ABOUT 72 HOURS THE DEPRESSION WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DRIER AIR NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THIS COULD BRING AN END TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM...IN FACT I HAVE PUT A DECREASE IN WINDS BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15 KTS. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY A FAIRLY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AND PERHAPS AT A FASTER MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. FORECAST MODELS DO INDICATED A WEAKNESS AND THIS WEAKNESS COULD SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM BY DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECAST MODELS DURING THIS TIME ARE FAIRLY SPREAD OUT WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS RECURVING THE DEPRESSION OUT TO SEA. MY FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE AND SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE MODELS AND NHCs FORECAST TRACK DUE TO POSSIBLE SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE UNCERTAINITY OF THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND DAY 4.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

02/15Z 12.6N 41.1W 30 KTS
03/03Z 13.5N 43.5W 35 KTS
03/15Z 14.8N 47.0W 45 KTS
04/03Z 16.3N 50.5W 50 KTS
04/15Z 17.7N 54.0W 55 KTS
05/15Z 20.5N 59.5W 60 KTS
06/15Z 23.0N 62.5W 60 KTS
07/15Z 24.0N 65.5W 55 KTS

JACKSON

14Z Tropical Outlook

2010-08-02T10:10:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
10:07 AM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 2, 2010

Area of low pressure located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is continue to show signs of organization and is expected to become a depression at any time. This system is moving to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON

1900Z Tropical Outlook

2010-07-20T14:48:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
2:35 PM EDT TUESDAY JULY 20, 2010

TROPICAL WAVE NEAR HISPANIOLA IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND ORGANIZED. WHILE THERE IS NOT A CLOSED CIRCULATION YET...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HISPANIOLA...TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS POSSIBLE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED AT SHORT NOTICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

JACKSON

1200Z Tropical Outlook

2010-07-20T07:58:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
7:55 AM EDT TUESDAY JULY 20, 2010

TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE DECREASED SOME...CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS WAVE MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

JACKSON

13Z Tropical Outlook

2010-07-19T08:53:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:48 AM EDT MONDAY JULY 19, 2010

TROPICAL WAVE NEAR PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME AS THE WAVE MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS WAVE WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLAND IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THERE IS NO SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. CONDITIONS ARE ALSO NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS WAVE MOVES TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

JACKSON

0200Z Tropical Outlook

2010-07-04T22:26:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
10:09 PM EDT SUNDAY JULY 4, 2010

Strong tropical wave in the Northwest Caribbean have continue to show signs of organization. Though a closed circulation have not been found...buoy reports show winds of near tropical storm force. Upper level winds remain favorable for development and a tropical depression or storm may form within the next few days as this wave moves to the northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

An area of showers and thunderstorms are approaching the Lesser Antilles. Upper level winds are somewhat favorable for some slow development as this area moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

An area of low pressure located 125 miles south-southeast of the Central Louisiana coast. Though thunderstorm activity is limited...there is a slight possibility of this low to briefly become a tropical depression before moving inland tomorrow.

Broad area of low pressure is located about 150 miles northeast of the Bahamas is producing some showers and thunderstorms. Upper level winds are not favorable for development at this time as this low moves to the east at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON

0300Z Tropical Update

2010-06-27T23:04:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL STORM ALEX UPDATE # 10
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
10:30 PM EDT SUNDAY JUNE 27, 2010

AT 11:00 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4 N 91.3 W OR ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO. ALEX IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. THIS MOTION WILL MOVE MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AT AN EVEN SLOWER SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND ALEX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB/29.26 IN.

THE CENTER OF ALEX HAS NOW EMERGED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HAVE QUICKLY REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPLODED AROUND THE CENTER AND WITH A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER TEMPERATURES...ALEX WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND ALEX WILL LIKELY BE A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MY INTENSITY FORECAST PUTS ALEX AS A WEAK CATEGORY 2 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ALEX COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IF ALEX REMAINS OVER THE WATER FOR A LONGER PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION 300/8. ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AT ABOUT THIS PACE OR A LITTLE SLOWER DURING THE SHORT TERM. THEN THAT/S WHEN THINGS GET INTERESTING...MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE DETERMINING THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE. RIGHT NOW CURRENT THINKING THAT THIS RIDGE SHOULD STAY STRONG ENOUGH THAT ALEX WILL BE PULLED TOWARDS MEXICO AND MAKE A MEXICAN LANDFALL IN 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...I HAVE MOVED MY FORECAST TRACK NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AS MOST OF THE MODELS DO SHOW ALEX MOVING MORE AND MORE NORTH WITH EACH PASSING RUN. SO AREAS FROM TEXAS TO LOUISIANA NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALEX.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY

28/03Z 19.4 N 91.3 W 40 KTS
28/15Z 20.2 N 92.4 W 40 KTS
29/03Z 21.0 N 93.4 W 50 KTS
29/15Z 21.7 N 94.4 W 60 KTS
30/03Z 22.5 N 95.4 W 70 KTS
01/03Z 22.5 N 97.0 W 85 KTS
02/03Z 24.0 N 98.0 W 50 KTS...INLAND
03/03Z 28.0 N 97.5 W 30 KTS...INLAND

JACKSON

1500Z Tropical Update

2010-06-27T11:12:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX UPDATE #8
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
10:41 AM EDT SUNDAY JUNE 27, 2010

At 10 AM CDT...the center of Tropical Depression Alex was located near 18.7 N 90.6 W or 85 miles south of Campeche Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph. Some additional weakening is expected while Alex is inland...but will regain strength once Alex reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Motion is towards the west-northwest near 13 mph. On the current track...Alex will move into the Gulf of Mexico later today. Minimum central pressure is 1000 mb/29.53 in.

Alex continues his trek across the Yucatan and bringing heavy rains to the area. The forecast track is similar to NHCs forecast track...though towards the end of the forecast period my forecast track is a bit to the right of NHCs track. An upper level ridge is expected to develop over the central part of the U.S. Depending on the strength of this ridge will determine whether Alex will move further to the north or turn to the west in time. I believe that this ridge will be strong enough to turn Alex on a more westerly track in about 3 to 4 days making an Mexican landfall in about 96 hours...however areas along the Texas and Louisiana coast still need to monitor the progress of Alex.

With Alex being inland...it/s easy to say that he is going to weaken and with cloud tops warming...Alex has indeed weaken and is now a depression with 30 kt winds. Alex will move into an environment that will favor strengthening once he moves into the Gulf of Mexico tonight. I am expecting that Alex will reach hurricane strength in about 48 to 72 hours before making his final landfall. Some of the models show that Alex could be a category 2 hurricane at landfall...right now not seeing that as much of a possibility at this time and not going with anything stronger than 70 kts. Once Alex makes landfall...he will weaken rather rapidly but will be a heavy rain producer.

Forecast positions and intensity

27/15Z 18.7 N 90.6 W 30 kts
28/03Z 19.5 N 91.7 W 30 kts...over water
28/15Z 20.3 N 92.9 W 35 kts
29/03Z 21.1 N 93.9 W 40 kts
29/15Z 21.4 N 94.9 W 55 kts
30/15Z 22.5 N 97.0 W 70 kts
01/15Z 23.5 N 98.0 W 65 kts...inland
02/15Z 25.0 N 98.5 W 30 kts...inland

JACKSON

1200Z Tropical Outlook

2010-06-25T08:17:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:12 AM EDT FRIDAY JUNE 25, 2010

Area of low pressure in the western Caribbean continues to show signs of organization and a tropical depression may be forming. This low is drifting to the southwest but a northwest or a west-northwest motion is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours. Air Force Recon Aircraft is expected to investigate this system later today to see if a depression has formed.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected within the next 24 hours.

JACKSON

1200Z Tropical Outlook

2010-06-23T07:56:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
7:51 AM EDT WEDNESDAY JUNE 23, 2010

Area of showers and thunderstorms located in the Central Caribbean have increased some during the past few hours. Upper level winds are favorable for some slow development over the next few days as this wave moves to the west around 10 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON

1300Z Tropical Outlook

2010-06-14T08:37:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:31 AM EDT MONDAY JUNE 14, 2010

Area of low pressure located 1425 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is continuing to show signs of organization and a tropical depression could be forming. If signs continue to show organization...then updates could be initated later today or Tuesday as this low moves to the west-northwest to northwest at around 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON

1800Z Tropical Outlook

2010-06-13T13:41:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
1:36 PM EDT SUNDAY JUNE 13, 2010

Area of low pressure located about 850 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands is producing showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are favorable for some development over the next few days as this system moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON

1300Z Tropical Outlook

2010-06-04T08:56:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:55 AM EDT FRIDAY JUNE 4, 2010

Tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON

1500Z Tropical Outlook

2010-06-02T11:16:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:15 AM EDT WEDNESDAY JUNE 2, 2010

Tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON

1300Z Tropical Outlook

2010-06-01T08:55:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:52 AM EDT TUESDAY JUNE 1, 2010

Area of showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula associated with the remnants of Agatha. Upper level winds right now are not favorable for development as this area moves very little over the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON

1500Z Tropical Outlook

2010-05-31T10:33:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
10:30 AM EDT MONDAY MAY 31, 2010

Tropical storm activity is not expected within the next 36 hours. Tomorrow...June 1 is the start of the Atlantic hurricane season and this season is expected to be a very active season. My updated forecast now calls for 17 named storms...9 hurricanes...and 5 major hurricanes. The 2010 storm names are as follows...

Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter

JACKSON

0300Z Tropical Outlook

2010-05-23T23:24:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:08 PM EDT SUNDAY MAY 23, 2010

Area of low pressure located about 475 miles east of the Bahamas. While there have not been much changed to the overall structure of the system...winds near the center are at tropical storm force. Upper level winds are currently unfavorable for development right now...but this system will be moving into an environment that could make this system into a subtropical or tropical storm in a few days as this system moves to the north at 5 to 10 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected to develop within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON

1400Z Tropical Outlook

2010-05-22T10:34:00.000-04:00

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
10:25 AM EDT SATURDAY MAY 22, 2010

Area of low pressure located east of the Bahamas will dissipate and a new area of low pressure will develop east of the previous low pressure will begin a slow movement to the northwest. Upper level winds are not favorable for development...but could gradually acquire subtropical characteristics over the next few days. Areas from eastern Florida to southeast Virginia need to monitor the progress of this system as forecast models do bring this low closer to the east coast by early next week.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON

1500Z Tropical Update

2010-05-21T11:18:00.001-04:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:14 AM EDT FRIDAY MAY 21, 2010

We have our first area of tropical activity of the season...though not expected to develop. Weak area of showers and thunderstorms west of the Bahamas moving slowly to the northwest. Upper level winds are not favorable for any development at this time...but will continue to be monitored.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected within the next 36 hours.

June 1 is the start of the Atlantic hurricane season and I/m expecting it to be a very active season. My current forecast calls for 16 named storms...with 9 of these storms to become hurricane and 4 major hurricanes. The increased in activity is expected due to the continued weakening of El Nino and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures.

JACKSON

ATLANTIC TROPICAL FORECAST

2010-05-16T14:34:00.000-04:00

Currently working on the forecast for the upcoming 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Hopefully will have the forecast ready by the end of today, Sunday May 16.

JACKSON

Tropical updates returning

2010-04-05T12:08:00.002-04:00

The tropical blogs will be returning on May 15...though the official start of the hurricane season is not until June 1. During the period of May 15 through June 1...will be doing some mock tropical systems mainly as a test and to get the rust out of the system. So look for updates starting May 15 and my seasonal predictions.

JACKSON

1300Z Tropical Outlook

2009-11-10T08:31:00.000-05:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

8:24 AM EST TUESDAY NOVEMBER 10, 2009

Tropical Forecast Center is issuing forecasts on Tropical Storm Ida located near 30.3 N 88.3 W with 45 mph winds.

Area of showers and thunderstorms located northeast of the Leeward Islands remain disorganized but is currently producing winds of 30 to 35 mph. Upper level winds are not favorable for development at this time as the area moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON

1500Z Tropical Update

2009-11-09T10:24:00.000-05:00

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST # 9

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

10:11 AM EST MONDAY NOVEMBER 9, 2009

Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect from Grand Isle LA to Aucilla River FL...including the Metro New Orleans area. Tropical storm warnings mean that tropical storm conditions are expected...generally within 24 hours.

At 10 AM CST (1500Z)...the center of Hurricane Ida was located near 26.0 N 88.2 W or 325 miles south of Mobile AL. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...further weakening is expected and Ida will begin to lose tropical characteristics within the next 12 to 24 hours. Motion is toward the north-northwest near 18 mph and this general motion is expected to continue with a turn to the north-northeast in 24 hours...on the forecast track...Ida will be making landfall near the Alabama/Mississippi border late tonight or early Tuesday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb/29.32 in.

Ida since moving into the Gulf of Mexico have seen its overall structure basically fall apart behind the strong shear and cooler water temperatures. Officially NHC now have downgraded Ida to a tropical storm which is very agreeable...however when I was doing my analysis over an hour ago...I still saw a few signs that Ida was still a minimum hurricane...so while Ida is indeed a tropical storm now...just for the this forecast...Ida will remain a minimum hurricane with 65 kts winds. All hurricane warnings have now been dropped. Ida will continue to weaken over the next few days and will begin the transition from tropical to extratropical within the next 12 hours or so...if not sooner. Ida should however remain a tropical system until shortly after landfall when transition should be completed. Ida will be absorbed by a frontal system within 72 hours.

Initial motion 330/16 kts. While the center of Ida is continuing to become more difficult to locate...track reasoning remains the same as Ida will make landfall near the Alabama/Mississippi border late tonight or Tuesday morning and then turn to the northeast until the system is absorbed by a frontal system.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

09/15Z 26.0 N 88.2 W 65 kts

10/03Z 29.0 N 88.7 W 55 kts

10/15Z 31.8 N 88.1 W 45 kts...inland/extratropical

11/03Z 33.5 N 85.9 W 35 kts...inland/extratropical

11/15Z 34.1 N 82.2 W 25 kts...inland/extratropical

12/03Z Absorbed by frontal system

JACKSON

2100Z Tropical Update

2009-11-08T16:35:00.000-05:00

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST #8

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

4:00 PM EST SUNDAY NOVEMBER 9, 2009

Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Grand Isle LA to Mexico Beach FL. Hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Playa del Carmen to Cabo Catoche. Hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected...generally within 24 hours.

Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Playa del Carmen.

Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Yucantan Peninsula from Punta Allen to Playa del Carmen and from Cabo Catoche to San Felipe. Warnings are also in effect for the Cuban Providence of Pinar del Sol. Tropical storm warnings mean that tropical storm conditions are likely...generally within 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Isle of Youth. Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

At 4 PM EST (2100Z)...the eye of Hurricane Ida was located near 21.9 N 86.3 W or 620 miles south of Mobile. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...which makes Ida a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible and Ida could come close to major hurricane status. Movement is toward the north-northwest near 10 mph and this general motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed over the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...Ida will continue to move into the Southern Gulf of Mexico towards the Central Gulf Coast states. Minimum central pressure just reported by the Air Force Recon Plane is 976 mb/28.82 in.

Ida have continued to strengthen slightly during the day today as ADT numbers are at 4.2 and Dvorak Estimates are around 4.5...however with the Recon Plane in...they have reported winds of 85 kts...and this will remain the initial intensity. Ida still have a small window of opportunity to strengthen before moving into cooler waters and will cause Ida to weaken and turn into an extratropical system. There are uncertainities remains as to whether Ida will truly lose all of her tropical characteristics prior to making landfall in about 48 hours. Because of the uncertainites hurricane watches have been posted for parts of the Central Gulf Coast. After Ida makes landfall...she will become extratropical and will be absorbed by a frontal system in about 5 days.

Initial motion is 330/9 kts. Ida continues to be influence by a mid level ridge. Forecast models continue to agree on the short term forecast with the north-northwest motion...however after about the 48 hour time frame is where forecast models differ greatly as a mid level trough and a cold front. My current forecast track is to the left of previous forecasts and north of NHCs as my new track now take Ida or her remnants across the southeast and offshore near the VA/NC border before being absorbed. Again...there are some uncertainties in the exact forecast track and while I have to note that NHCs previous forecast tracks have kept Ida offshore until their last two forecast packages where they have Ida moving inland. This is still not an exact science and we all as forecasters will continue to better our forecast skills.

Forecast Positions and Intensity:

08/21Z 21.9 N 86.3 W 85 kts

09/09Z 24.0 N 87.5 W 85 kts

09/21Z 26.9 N 88.4 W 85 kts

10/09Z 30.1 N 88.2 W 75 kts

10/21Z 32.7 N 86.3 W 55 kts...inland

11/21Z 35.0 N 79.0 W 30 kts...inland/extratropical

12/21Z 37.0 N 74.0 W 20 kts...extratropical

13/21Z Absorbed by front

JACKSON

1800Z Tropical Outlook

2009-11-08T13:23:00.000-05:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

1:18 PM EST SUNDAY NOVEMBER 8, 2009

Tropical Forecast Center is currently issuing updates on Hurricane Ida...located near 21.6 N 86.0 W and 100 mph winds. Complete update on Ida coming up around 21Z.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected within 36 hours.

JACKSON

0900Z Tropical Update

2009-11-08T04:16:00.000-05:00

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST # 7

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

3:52 AM EST SUNDAY NOVEMBER 8, 2009

For the watches and warnings...please see the previous forecast.

At 4 AM EST (0900Z)...the eye of Hurricane Ida is located near 20.2 N 85.4 W or 715 miles south of Pensacola. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...some additional strengthening is forecast and Ida could become a category 2 hurricane later today. Movement is toward the northwest near 10 mph...and this general motion is expected to continue. On the forecast track...Ida will pass very near the Yucatan Peninsula today. Minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force Recon is 983 mb/29.03 in.

Ida continue to surprise forecasters despite 20 to 25 kts of shear...Ida continues to show signs of strengthening. ADT is around 4.2 or 69 kts and Dvorake Estimates are 4.0 or 65 kts...while the MIMIC-IR was showing winds of 82 kts...and with the Recon flight currently in Ida...the highest winds they found was 82 kts...so will go with 80 kts for this forecast. Ida still have a period of time to continue to strengthen and have bumped up the peak intensity to 85 kts within 12 hours. As Ida moves into the Gulf of Mexico...shear is expected to increase to as high as 50 kts and water temperatures will drop...so I do have Ida maintaining it/s strength before weakening in the 48 to 72 hour range. Ida will turn extratropical between days 3 and 4 and will be absorbed by a front by day 5.

Initial motion is 325/9 kts...Ida have moved more to the left of the forecast track during the past 6 hours and overall this shift leftward is reflected in the current forecast track...hence hurricane warnings being posted for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. Ida is currently being steered by a mid-level ridge and this will be the steering factor for Ida during the next 24 to 48 hours. Beyond 48 hours...a models go all over the place from the southeast movement to the northeast across Florida and portions of the southeast before moving into the Atlantic. There is more of a east-southeast motion toward the end of the forecast period as a mid-level trough will become the steering factor for Ida. Ida at this time and according to my forecast track will move inland near Pensacola in about 54 to 60 hours whether it will be a tropical or extratropical system remains to be seen as to how further watches/warnings will be handled. Forecast track is close to NHCs for the short term...then my track moves Ida inland while NHCs show a more pronounced motion to the southeast in time. So all areas from Alabama to the Florida Peninsula need to monitor the progress of Ida.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

08/09Z 20.2 N 85.4 W 80 kts

08/21Z 21.8 N 86.9 W 85 kts

09/09Z 24.0 N 88.4 W 85 kts

09/21Z 26.7 N 89.1 W 85 kts

10/09Z 29.4 N 88.9 W 80 kts

11/09Z 32.0 N 84.0 W 45 kts...inland/extratropical

12/09Z 31.5 N 78.0 W 20 kts...extratropical

13/09Z Absorbed by front

JACKSON

0730Z Tropical Update

2009-11-08T02:51:00.000-05:00

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST #6
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
2:31 AM EST SUNDAY NOVEMBER 8, 2009

Hurricane Warnings are now issued for the Yucatan Peninsula from Playa del Carmen to Cabo Catoche. Hurricane warnings mean that hurricane conditions are expected...generally within 24 hours.

Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Playa del Carmen. Hurricane watch mean that hurricane conditions are possible...generally within 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Allen to San Felipe.

Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the Grand Cayman Islands and for the Cuban Providence of Pinar del Rio. Tropical storm warnings mean that tropical storm conditions are expected...generally within 24 hours.

Tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Isle of Youth. Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

At 2:30 AM EST (0730Z)...the center of Hurricane Ida is located near 20.6 N 84.8 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...additional strengthening is possible and Ida could become a category 2 hurricane. Movement is toward the northwest near 10 mph...and this general motion is expected within the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...Ida will move near the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Minimum central pressure as reported by Recon Aircraft is 983 mb/29.03 in.

This update is for hurricane warnings being posted for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. Will have a complete discussion and forecast position and intensity around 09Z.

JACKSON

0300Z Tropical Update

2009-11-07T22:23:00.000-05:00

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST #5

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

9:48 PM EST SATURDAY NOVEMBER 7, 2009

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Grand Cayman Islands and on the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Allen to San Felipe.

Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for Cuban Providence of Pinar del Rio. Tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected...generally within 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Isle of Youth. Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

At 10 PM EST (0300Z)...the center of Hurricane Ida is located near 19.5 N 84.6 W or 775 miles south-southeast of Pensacola. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...some additional strengthening is possible on Sunday. Movement is toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and this motion is expected to continue through the next 24 hours. Estimated minimum central is 987 mb/29.15 in.

Ida have continued to become better organized and while NHC have "officially" kept Ida as a tropical storm...ADT numbers are 3.8 or around 63 kts and the latest MIMIC-IR estimated winds as high as 71 kts...therefore I have decided to upgrade Ida to a 65 kt hurricane. Despite moderate shear near the storm...it is not enough to cause Ida to weaken...so I/m expecting Ida to continue to gradually strengthen through48 hours before much higher shear and cooler water temperatures cause Ida to weaken. Ida will become an extratropical system while crossing the Florida Peninsula in 3 days and get absorbed by a front in about 5 days.

Initial motion 345/10 kts. Ida continues to be influenced by a mid level high and models are in fair agreement of the track of Ida through 72 hours. Beyond 72 hours...a mid level trough will begin to influence Ida/s movement and a turn to the northeast will be expected. Forecast models differ greatly as to where will Ida go while some models take Ida across the Florida Peninsula and into the Atlantic and other models take Ida close to the Florida Peninsula and move to the southeast until Ida is absorbed by the front. For now...I/m continuing with my previous forecast track moving across the Florida Peninsula before getting absorbed by the front in 5 days.

Note: Again...NHC "officially" have kept Ida as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds...however upon my analysis as discussed above I have decided to upgrade Ida to a hurricane so there is no confusion as to the official status of Ida.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

08/03Z 19.5 N 84.6 W 65 kts

08/15Z 21.3 N 85.7 W 70 kts

09/03Z 23.2 N 87.2 W 75 kts

09/15Z 25.6 N 88.3 W 75 kts

10/03Z 28.3 N 88.5 W 80 kts

11/03Z 32.0 N 84.5 W 55 kts...inland

12/03Z 32.5 N 76.0 W 25 kts...extratropical

13/03Z Absorbed by front

JACKSON

2100Z Tropical Update

2009-11-07T16:08:00.000-05:00

TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST #4

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

3:45 PM EST SATURDAY NOVEMBER 7, 2009

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Grand Cayman Island...the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Allen to San Felipe.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cuban Providence of Pinar del Rio. Tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected...generally within 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Isle of Youth. Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

At 4 PM EST (2100Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Ida is located near 18.4 N 84.2 W or 785 miles south of Apalachicola, FL. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...and some strengthening is possible and Ida could again become a hurricane later today. Motion is to the north at 10 mph and this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the north-northwest later today...then a turn to the northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track...Ida will likely move between Cuba and the Yucatan tonight and enter into the Gulf of Mexico early Sunday. Minimum central pressure recorded by Recon is 990 mb/29.23 in.

Ida have once again surprised forecasters...despite wind shear in excess of 20 kts...Ida have continued to become better organized. Dvorak Estimates at 1745Z were T3.5...since then Ida have continued to gather some strength...but not quite a hurricane yet so will put the initial intensity at 60 kts. Not much will be needed for Ida to become a hurricane...and my intensity forecast do show Ida becoming a hurricane in about 12 hours or less. I have also increased the peak winds of Ida to 80 kts as she crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. After Ida cross into the Gulf...wind shear is expected to increase to around 50 to as high as 60 kts and this will likely shear Ida apart and weakening will then be forecast through the remainder of the forecast period and in about 4 days after Ida crosses the Florida Peninsula...Ida will become extratropical.

Initial motion 355/9 kts. Ida continues to move northward with the influence of a mid-level high. Ida will begin to move to the north-northwest in time and this is in agreement of most of the short term model runs. Difficulty in the forecast comes around the 72 hour timeframe where an mid-level trough will come into play. The models seem to split on where the track of Ida will go. Some of the models move Ida eastward across the Florida Peninsula and into the Atlantic...other models pull Ida east...then southeast and not affect any land areas during the forecast period. Other models show Ida merging with a front and then moving through the Florida Peninsula. My forecast will more reflect the early scenario and move Ida across the Florida Peninsula in about 3 days and move well north of Bermuda by the end of the forecast period. Therefore because of the uncertainites of the forecast...areas along the Gulf Coast from Alabama to Florida need to monitor the progress of Ida.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

07/21Z 18.4 N 84.2 W 60 kts

08/09Z 20.0 N 85.1 W 75 kts

08/21Z 21.7 N 86.3 W 80 kts

09/09Z 23.7 N 87.5 W 80 kts

09/21Z 26.2 N 88.1 W 80 kts

10/21Z 30.5 N 85.5 W 65 kts...inland

11/21Z 32.5 N 77.5 W 40 kts...extratropical

12/21Z 34.0 N 67.5 W 40 kts...extratropical

JACKSON

0300Z Tropical Update

2009-11-06T22:44:00.000-05:00

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST # 3

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

10:20 PM EST FRIDAY NOVEMBER 6, 2009

At 10 PM EST (0300Z)...the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located near 16.1 N 84.0 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...some strengthening is possible and Ida could become a tropical storm again on Saturday. Motion is toward the north at 7 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the north-northwest on Saturday and then a turn to the northeast early next week. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb/29.71 in.

Ida have been over the warm waters of the Caribbean for most of the afternoon and evening hours and slowly have been reorganizing. Ida will be kept at 30 kts for this update...but is close to reaching tropical storm strength and forecast that it will within the next 24 hours. After about 48 hours of some modest strengthening...Ida will move into 50 to 60 kts of shear and this will cause Ida to weaken and become extratropical while crossing southern Florida towards the end of the forecast period.

Initial motion 360/6 kts. Ida will continue to move on a north to north-northwest motion in influence of a mid-level high. Afterwards expecting for Ida to basically move to the northeast and then southeast through the remainder of the forecast period as Ida becomes extratropical and merges with a frontal system...however what/s left of Ida before becoming extratropical could affect southern Florida by the end of the forecast period.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

07/03Z 16.1 N 84.0 W 30 kts

07/15Z 17.3 N 84.3 W 30 kts

08/03Z 18.6 N 84.8 W 35 kts

08/15Z 19.9 N 85.5 W 40 kts

09/03Z 21.2 N 86.4 W 45 kts

10/03Z 24.0 N 87.0 W 40 kts

11/03Z 26.0 N 84.5 W 40 kts...becoming extratropical

12/03Z 25.5 N 80.0 W 30 kts...extratropical

JACKSON

1800Z Tropical Outlook

2009-11-06T12:33:00.000-05:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
12:31 PM EST FRIDAY NOVEMBER 6, 2009

The Tropical Forecast Center is currently issuing forecasts on Tropical Depression Ida located near 15.1 N 84.0 W and 35 mph winds. Complete update on Ida will come later today.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

JACKSON

0200Z Tropical Update

2009-11-04T22:01:00.000-05:00

TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST #2

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

9:27 PM EST WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 4, 2009

Hurricane Watches remain in effect for the East Coast of Nicaragua from Bluefields to the Honduras border. Hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Warnings remains in the effect for the entire east coast of Nicaragua. Tropical storm warnings mean that tropical storm conditions are expected...generally within 24 hours.

At 9:00 PM EST (0200Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near 12.2 N 83.0 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...little change in strength is expected prior to landfall...weakening is expected after landfall. Movement is toward the west-northwest near 7 mph...and this general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected. On the forecast track...Ida will make landfall over Eastern Nicaragua on Thursday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb/29.38 in.

Ida have been on a mini rapid intensification cycle during the day and even now...Ida have been showing an eye like feature on satellite. Dvorak and ADT Estimates is only 3.0 however the reports from the Aircraft Recon have been showing winds in excess of 55 kts and this will remain the initial intensity. Ida do have a small window to possibly become a hurricane though this is unlikely. Once Ida makes landfall...she will weaken rapidly and there is a chance that she will not survive the mountainous region...currently I do have for the intensity forecast that she will survive and move back over the water in about 72 hours for a short time before making a second landfall in 96 hours. By day 5...Ida will move back over the water and with warm SSTs...Ida will have an opportunity to restrengthen.

Initial motion 305/6 kts. Steering currents are expected to remain weak over the southwest Caribbean Sea for the next few days. The forecast track was a bit difficult to pinpoint though I feel fairly confident in the short term forecast. Beyond 48 hours...is where forecast track differs between my forecast and NHCs as overall my track is further west and faster. The main feature will be the possible formation of a extra or sub tropical low along the remnants of an old front. If this scenario plays out...then Ida will be forced to the northwest or north in time. My forecast track plays into this scenario and Ida will emerge over the Gulf of Mexico in 5 days.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

05/02Z 12.2 N 83.0 W 55 kts

05/14Z 13.1 N 83.8 W 50 kts...inland

06/02Z 14.1 N 84.8 W 35 kts...inland

06/14Z 15.1 N 85.8 W 30 kts...inland

07/02Z 16.3 N 86.5 W 30 kts...over water

08/02Z 18.5 N 87.5 W 40 kts

09/02Z 20.5 N 89.0 W 30 kts...inland

10/02Z 23.0 N 89.5 W 35 kts

JACKSON

2100Z Tropical Outlook

2009-11-04T15:31:00.000-05:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
3:29 PM EST WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 4, 2009

Tropical Forecast Center are issuing updates on now Tropical Storm Ida...located near 11.8 N 82.3 W and 50 mph winds. A complete update on Ida including graphics and how strong could she get around 02Z.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1500Z Tropical Update

2009-11-04T10:36:00.001-05:00

TROPICAL UPDATE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 FORECAST #1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
10:15 AM EST WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 4, 2009

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Islands of San Andres and Providencia by the Colombian Government.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the East Coast of Nicaragua by their Government. A tropical storm warning mean that tropical storm conditions are expected...generally within 24 hours.

At 10 AM EST (1500Z)...the center of newly developed Tropical Depression 11 is located near 11.6 N 82.0 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Movement is toward the northwest at 8 mph and this motion is expected to decrease this afternoon. On the forecast track...the depression will cross into Nicaragua by late tonight or on Thursday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb/29.71 in.

Area of low pressure that I have been monitoring for the past day or so have developed enough thunderstorms to be classified as a tropical depression. Recent satellite pictures are showing a new batch of thunderstorms developing near the center so this could push this depression into tropical storm strength actually within the next few hours. Air Force Recon will be investigating this system later this afternoon to see if we indeed have Ida on our hands. Initial intensity is at 30 kts...representative of the Dvorak Estimates around 2.0. With the closeness to land...the intensity forecast is a little tricky. SHIPs as in previous model runs show very little intensification and while GFDL show the storm becoming a hurricane. While the latter scenario is possible...the proximity to land will make it difficult so I/m expecting the depression to make to around 40 or 45 kts before moving over Nicaragua in about 18 to 24 hours or so and weakening before possibly crossing into the Yucatan Peninsula where if not disrupted should regain tropcial storm status.

Initial motion is 315/7 kts. Steering currents is rather weak so fully expecting that this storm will slow down or even stall later this afternoon. Forecast is rather complex on the tracking of the depression as there are several different scenarios that can play out. The first is a possible developing system in the Eastern Pacific...if this system develop quickly...then the depression could be absorbed into the system or have its circulation basically ripped apart. The second is the remnants of a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models show an area of low pressure developing along this front later in the week...which could steer the depression north...possibly into the Gulf of Mexico. Right now...will follow close the NHCs track for now and the system move over Nicaragua and cross back over water by the end of the forecast period.

Note: Graphics and forecast track and intensity will be updated later today.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1400Z Tropical Outlook

2009-11-04T08:59:00.000-05:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:56 AM EST WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 4, 2009

Area of low pressure located in the Southwest Caribbean Sea have continued to become better organized and a tropical depression could form later today. An Air Force Recon Airplane will investigate this system later today. Heavy rains and life threatening mudslides will be possible for Honduras...Belize...and Costa Rica over the next day or so as this low moves very little.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0100Z Tropical Outlook

2009-11-03T20:28:00.000-05:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

8:23 PM EST TUESDAY NOVEMBER 3, 2009

Area of low pressure located east of Costa Rica continues to become better organized and signs are showing that a tropical depression could be starting to form. If thunderstorms can continue to build around the center and persist...then forecasts could be initiated by Wednesday Afternoon or Evening. An Air Force Recon Airplane is expected to investigate the low tomorrow. Regardless of development...heavy rains and life-threatening mudslides will be possible over portions of Central America over the next few days.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1800Z Tropical Outlook

2009-11-03T12:41:00.000-05:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
12:37 PM EST TUESDAY NOVEMBER 3, 2009

Area of low pressure located east of Costa Rica have become better organized during the past few hours and conditions appear favorable for further development over the next day or so and could become a tropical depression at that time. The low is expected to move very little during the next few days and could bring heavy rains to portions of Central America and could produce life-threatening mudslides to the region. Areas from Central America to the Yucatan...Western Cuba and the Gulf Coast States need to monitor the progress of this area of low pressure over the course of the next week. Updated satellites will be posted later today.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected to develop within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1400Z Tropical Outlook

2009-11-03T08:47:00.003-05:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

8:47 AM EST TUESDAY NOVEMEBER 3, 2009

Area of low pressure developed east of Costa Rica. While thunderstorm development is limited...upper level winds are favorable for continued development over the next few days as this low moves very little.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0400Z Tropical Outlook

2009-11-01T23:28:00.000-05:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

11:22 PM EST SUNDAY NOVEMBER 1, 2009

Non-tropical low located about 400 miles east of Bermuda continues to become better organized and the low could be acquiring sub-tropical or tropical characteristics...however this low is still associated with a frontal system...but the front is pulling away from the low. Once this low becomes separated from the front...this system will likely become a subtropical or tropical system within the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1600Z Tropical Outlook

2009-11-01T11:05:00.000-05:00

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER

10:57 AM EST SUNDAY NOVEMBER 1, 2009

Non-tropical low located about 680 miles east of Bermuda could slowly be acquiring sub-tropical characteristics. Additional development will be possible over the next few days as the low moves to the west-northwest to northwest.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0100Z Tropical Outlook

2009-10-26T20:55:00.000-04:00

Tropical storm development is not expected within 36 hours.

This will be the last tropical outlook for the 2009 season unless there is a system with a moderate chance of developing or higher. The next official update will be on June 1, 2010.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0100Z Tropical Outlook

2009-10-21T21:15:00.000-04:00

Area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the Southwest Caribbean is nearly stationary and development if any will be slow to occur. Regardless of development...expect heavy rain over areas of Central America over the next few days.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected over the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist